Serie B Predictions > Mar 1st & 2nd

[dejann]

Ternana o2.25 @1.90

Min price to bet: o2.25 @1.80 or o2.5 @2.07

Model +value: yes, v strong

Significant team news: Ternana without key offensive pieces - rw/am Partipilo (6 gls, 10 ast) is suspended, am/lm Falletti (8 gls, 3 ast) and cf Donnarumma (8gls, 3ast) still out injured. Falletti and Partipilo are also their best rated players this season.

Note: Ok, so some very bad team news for Ternana here, they are without their 3 top goalscorers and on top of that Partipilo is Serie B leader in assists with massive 10 (next best has 6) and 2nd in big chances created with 9. Still, Falletti has played only 9 minutes in last 6 games and Donnarumma 87 mins in last 7 (he came of the bench 2 times and started just once, was subbed after an early injury). So, yes, Ternana are def weakened here, but it is only Partipilo's absence that is a true blow. Not all is bad, as they get key cm Palumbo back after suspension. Pordenone are rock bottom, huge 12 points away from relegation-playoffs chance. They have lost their last 5, but there were some signs of small improvement in those games, although it's really difficult to have any optimism for them at this stage. Model makes overs a clear bet, we would go with TG 2.75 after team news (for this game in current circumstances re table standings, it would be easy 2.90+ with full Ternana squad) and definitely believe price should be some 20 pts lower (note that price on overs has improved 10+ pts during the day, there are some o2.25 1.95 and 1.96 available as well, but it should come back down tomorrow). Pordenone can't really afford to play for draw and Ternana are one of the better playing teams in the league, their style is easy on the eyes and 3 gpg is also league high, albeit they did have some bizarre high scoring games this season that helped that high avg (they had a league-high 7 games that finished with 5 or more goals). 8 points above the red zone, they don't have an imperative to win and it's a shame playoffs are so far away (10+ pts), this is a team that can truly play anyone in this league. Last week they had a 95th min equalizer v Cremonese called back by VAR (to Partipilo's disbelief), and prior to that they lost to SPAL 5-1, in a strange game where they were clearly the better team in the first half only to concede from one of SPAL's first attacks, then they conceded a needless penalty and things went from bad to worse. They played a weakened lineup at SPAL, actually should have a little bit stronger 11 tomorrow but current hcap price -3/4 191ish is just not interesting enough. Weather in Terni will be fine, cold but clear, we expect a watchable game and, despite Ternana's heavy missings, this price to drop tomorrow.