Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 (edited) 535 southwell going 3 and 2 bsp Edited January 19, 2022 by Wildgarden black rabbit and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 speach bubble 12.45 The Equaliser and black rabbit 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 My Trixie today is: 2.35 Plum Ualrightharry 2/1 3.30 Nb Gran Luna 9/4 7.35 Sou Kind Review 11/4 1 x 4 pt win Trxie = poss return of 69.73 points Singles: 2.35 Plum Cheque En Blanc 1 pt win at 10/3 & Top And Drop 1 pt win at 4/1 ( I was going to go for Innisfreeelad so I hope that doesn't win) 3.30 Nb Miss Heritage 1 pt win at 7/2 & Voice Of Calm 1 pt win at 9/2 7.35 Sou If YOu Dare 1 pt win at 9/4 & Invincible Larne 1 pt win at 9/2 10 pts staked today black rabbit, azzybear and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: My Trixie today is: 2.35 Plum Ualrightharry 2/1 3.30 Nb Gran Luna 9/4 7.35 Sou Kind Review 11/4 1 x 4 pt win Trxie = poss return of 69.73 points Singles: 2.35 Plum Cheque En Blanc 1 pt win at 10/3 & Top And Drop 1 pt win at 4/1 ( I was going to go for Innisfreeelad so I hope that doesn't win) 3.30 Nb Miss Heritage 1 pt win at 7/2 & Voice Of Calm 1 pt win at 9/2 7.35 Sou If YOu Dare 1 pt win at 9/4 & Invincible Larne 1 pt win at 9/2 10 pts staked today looking good. i have ur 235, larne and kind review if helps. but got few others on the aw races too azzybear, The Equaliser and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 nibru 3 20 dun 1/4 pt win 24/1 dark matter 4 50 dun 1/4 pt win 401 P/L = + 117 pts The Equaliser and azzybear 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 hours ago, The Equaliser said: My Trixie today is: 2.35 Plum Ualrightharry 2/1 3.30 Nb Gran Luna 9/4 7.35 Sou Kind Review 11/4 1 x 4 pt win Trxie = poss return of 69.73 points Singles: 2.35 Plum Cheque En Blanc 1 pt win at 10/3 & Top And Drop 1 pt win at 4/1 ( I was going to go for Innisfreeelad so I hope that doesn't win) 3.30 Nb Miss Heritage 1 pt win at 7/2 & Voice Of Calm 1 pt win at 9/2 7.35 Sou If YOu Dare 1 pt win at 9/4 & Invincible Larne 1 pt win at 9/2 10 pts staked today Really annoyed with myself for not backing Innisfreelad over Top And Drop 1 winner so far. I have placed 2 pts to win on Kind Review at 3.60 for a poss 7.10 pts return = 12 points staked today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 535 southwell going 3 and 2 bsp top rated wins 3.12 for +1 lsp. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 AW selection Southwell 7.05 FACT OR FABLE 11/2 Wildgarden and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 53 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: top rated wins 3.12 for +1 lsp. Well done. Do you have an odds minimum of 2/1 so that at least you break even if the shortest price horse wins? Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 (edited) 22 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: Well done. Do you have an odds minimum of 2/1 so that at least you break even if the shortest price horse wins? nope i take the hit if short wins. on this occasion i only went them two i left 3rd off cos they were so strong. bang on also franked the winner. will post few more. did chloellie nap was close at massive odds. had place 7-1 Edited January 19, 2022 by Wildgarden The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 hours ago, The Equaliser said: Really annoyed with myself for not backing Innisfreelad over Top And Drop 1 winner so far. I have placed 2 pts to win on Kind Review at 3.60 for a poss 7.10 pts return = 12 points staked today RESULTS UPDATE I have mixed feelings about today's results. Of course I'm annoyed not to have included Innisfreelad over Top And Drop, The reason why it showed up was because its price had been clipped overnight from 8/1 into 13/2. It obviously had ability and the trainer applied a visor to see if that would bring about a change which it did. Top And Drop's form looked superior though it wasn't strong in the market. However when I look back at 3.30 at Newbury I had to choose between Voice Of Calm and Megan for my 3rd options. Voice of Calm drifted in the market from 5/2 overnight to around 9/2 and 5/1. Megan's price was fairly steady at around 9/2. Voice of Calm had only just been beaten by Gran Luna recently but Megan did not look like ever winning that race. The move was probably down to getting an extra 4 lbs off. Luckily I chose the horse with the better form against the favourite. what all this means is that the market can dupe one into thinking one horse is superior to another when it isn't. Anyway nothing returned from the Trixie but two side winners kept t he loss to -3.25 points (would have been -2.25 had I just only had 1 pt on Kind Review. My MTD /YTD is now -72.12 Two class 3 races at Ludlow tomorrow (though there is an inspection at 7.30am) and 3 class 3 races at Wincanton. There are 8 class 4 races with Newcastle only mustering 2. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 hours ago, Wildgarden said: nope i take the hit if short wins. on this occasion i only went them two i left 3rd off cos they were so strong. bang on also franked the winner. will post few more. did chloellie nap was close at massive odds. had place 7-1 Interesting. My first thoughts are that Phil Bull would turn in his grave if he read that anyone could place a bet in a race knowing that it would produce a break-even or possible loss should the shortest-priced horse win. However, you win with this strategy so the bigger priced selections must oblige more frequently than the shorter priced ones. I say interesting because if I manipulated the stakes so as to make the same profit should any of the horses win then a larger proportion would be placed on the shorter-priced horses. If it is more frequent that the longer priced horses win in practice then that wouldn't work ? Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 hours ago, The Equaliser said: Interesting. My first thoughts are that Phil Bull would turn in his grave if he read that anyone could place a bet in a race knowing that it would produce a break-even or possible loss should the shortest-priced horse win. However, you win with this strategy so the bigger priced selections must oblige more frequently than the shorter priced ones. I say interesting because if I manipulated the stakes so as to make the same profit should any of the horses win then a larger proportion would be placed on the shorter-priced horses. If it is more frequent that the longer priced horses win in practice then that wouldn't work ? yep the bigger ones oblige as you say. ye some interesting arguements for staking but level stakes works for me. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.