Road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase 2022

[Darran]

If you are new to reading this thread then a couple of years ago I decided to do a Road to the Cheltenham Foxhunter thread given all the various Cheltenham pieces never mention the contest. It has proved popular and it is back again as we build up to the race. It is later than usual this season for a couple of reasons. First of all bookies have been very slow to price the race up and secondly not too much has happened especially this side of the Irish sea.

To start with I have written about every horse who has been priced up so far and added a couple that aren’t, but that are being targeted at the race. Hopefully you will find this useful and as always I will update as and when.

Billaway – Not surprisingly the current favourite to finally get his head in front at Cheltenham and I have a feeling at this stage he might just well do it. Having said that his current price is no value and his nonappearance so far this season is a concern. He was entered in the opening Irish hunter chase of the season at Fairyhouse, but didn’t run and then didn’t even get an entry at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Both those things make me think he is injured at the moment or at the very least recovering from an injury. As always with horses being aimed at this race we rarely hear anything about their well being and until we see him on a racecourse I wouldn’t be backing him.

Bob And Co – Obviously wont be seen until hunter chases start up in this country and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he followed the same route as last season when he won at Haydock prior to going to Cheltenham.

Porlock Bay – Last year’s winner wasn’t seen again after that success and he made his seasonal reappearance at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. He finished 2^nd to Premier Magic that day beaten a length in the end, but Will Biddick said after the race that he left plenty to work on and that he was working back from Cheltenham. The fact he was beaten doesn’t make me think that he couldn’t hold on to his crown in March as I do think he will improve a lot for race. Reading between the lines of what Will said after the race he clearly thought Porlock Bay would beat Premier Magic should they take each other on again and I agree with him. I wouldn’t want to back him yet, but at the same time I would have him in single figures rather than the 12/1 he is with Bet365. He looks set to run again this month in either a hunter chase or a point as his final prep for Cheltenham. Premier Magic isn’t priced up yet, but it did sound like he would be going to Cheltenham as well. He’s a good horse and Bradley Gibbs mentioned he had improved from last season. I do think he was the fitter horse at Chaddesley rather than being the better horse.

Latenightpass – As short as 8/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair, but connections have said they will skip Cheltenham and aim him at Aintree instead which seems sensible and they have two other horses to target at the race anyway.

Staker Wallace – 4^th and 3^rd in the last two runnings and could still have improvement to come. Has yet to be seen so far this season. Paddy Power and Betfair go 7s which is closer to the price I would have him at rather than the 20/1 Unibet have put him in at.

Mighty Stowaway – Already run 7 times between October and the end of December and he’s won 2 points and head heated in another. He was 3^rd behind Vaucelet at Fairyhouse in November and it is hard to see on what he has shown so far this season how he is going to improve on his well beaten 6^th at Cheltenham last year.

Lord Schnitzel – Was pulled up at the 2020 Festival in the Novice Handicap Chase off 139 and didn’t so a great deal after that. He change trainers last summer and started off by finishing 5^th in a Kilbeggan maiden hurdle, before finishing 2^nd in his 1^st point in September. Since then he has thrived as he won 3 points on the bounce before trouncing his rivals in a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas. That was an impressive performance and it will be interesting to see what he does in a stronger race, but his trainer said after the race that they may skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead.

Winged Leader – Surprised to see him in the beating to be honest as I’d be surprised if he ran, but dead heated with Mighty Stowaway in his only run so far this season. Just struggle to see how he would find the improvement needed to play a part if he did travel.

It Came To Pass – Was a well beaten 7^th last year after beating Billaway by 10L in 2020. Has run in 3 points this season so far and after being stuffed in the first of them finished a close 2^nd next time before beating Killultagh Vic by a couple of lengths on Sunday. For a novice riders race it was a decent heat, but at this stage I find it hard to see him getting close to his 2020 effort.

Killultagh Vic – Speaking of Killultagh Vic he is also priced up and it was back in 2015 that he landed the Martin Pipe. Obviously has the back class, but he’s now 13 and given he’s been beaten in 2 points this season as well as one last season he will probably do well to qualify for the race let alone win it.

Cloudy Tuesday – Is unexposed and easily won a hunter chase at Thurles last March, before pulling up at Fairyhouse. This season he beat It Came To Pass first up, but was then 2^nd to Mighty Stowaway last month and he would need to find improvement to play a part at Cheltenham.

Another Venture – Nicky Henderson doesn’t send too many hunter chasing, but he mentioned that this horse had been purchased to go hunter chasing under his assistant George Daly. George rode him at Cheltenham at the November meeting and ran well enough to finish 3^rd albeit 16L behind the winner. In all honestly I think the only reason he has been priced up is because of who he is trained by as his previous rules form wouldn’t be good enough to win this, but he does look capable of winning hunter chases during the season.

Vaucelet – Had Premier Magic and Fumet d’Oudairies behind him win when landing the John Corbet Cup at Stratford last season and he did it will that day on only his 5^th start. He returned this term to win a point by 30L before landing the first hunter chase of the season at Fairyhouse. I thought he still looked green that day and it made me think that this season’s Cheltenham Festival might be a year to soon for him. He then went to Down Royal on Boxing Day in a race he really ought to have been good enough to win, but he was only 3^rd in the end. He was making hard work of it, but coming to 2 out I thought he was going to win given how well he stays. I was disappointed that he didn’t keep finding at that point and that he faded into 3^rd. Some might say that the trip was too short, but for me the trip didn’t get him beat. It will be interesting to see what he does next time, but if he were mine I wouldn’t send him to Cheltenham this season and I think they would be better allowing him some more time. Dorking Cock won that Down Royal contest and he got up to a rating of 129 when trained over here by Tom Lacey. He was a surprise winner at Down Royal and he wouldn’t be good enough for this based on what he had done previously, but he’s only had 17 starts so maybe there is more to come. He’s not in the betting at the moment, but the 2^nd home Er Dancer is. He had won a couple of points prior to Down Royal and it does seem like he’s found some improvement this season. He ran like he needed further and could possibly be interesting if the improvement continues.

Fumet d’Oudairies – An incredible buy at just £800 given he is 5 from 6 in points and he has won a couple of hunter chases. I thought he was impressive at Leicester and Cheltenham although they were over 2m4f and 2m respectively and he was only 2^nd to Vaucelet at Stratford and that would lead me to think he might struggle to stay in this. He returned on New Years Eve where he had a very easy task at Horseheath under his new jockey Gina Andrews as her brother has now gone pro. I’d want to see him prove he can stay this far under rules and Gina is likely to have a tricky choice to make as the yard have another contender.

Dubai Quest – That other horse is Dubai Quest and at this stage I would favour him over his stablemate. Apart from when he fell on his debut for the yard he has won his other 6 starts for them including bolting up in a hunter chase at Fakenham last February. His only other start last season was a point win at Maisemore. This season he returned in what will probably be the hottest Ladies Open we see all season at Chaddesley Corbett which he won well beating Tango de Juilley and Red Indian. I think it’s seriously good form and connections suggested the hunter chase at Wetherby next month would be used as his Cheltenham prep. He’s not priced up yet, but he ought to be.

Highway Jewel – You may remember that I tipped her up at 66/1 last year only for the trainer to forget to enter her! She has been put in the betting at 20/1 with Bet365 this time around and she has yet to run this season. I think she is better than her stablemate Premier Magic and she would be my pick of the Gibbs runners. I can’t wait to see her back in action.

[Darran]

Time for the 2nd update for the season and the obvious place to start is with the Thurles hunter chase which saw Billaway make his seasonal debut. I wondered if he'd had a setback in the opening post and I was right to think that with Willie Mullins confirming in his Sporting Life column that the horse would need the run after having suffered a setback. When you add into the fact that he doesn't have a great first time out record then I think the run was perfectly respectable. It's not unusual for him to come off the bridle so that doesn't bother me and his jumping isn't always foot perfect either so again that wasn't a huge surprise. Once he couldn't win the race Patrick wasn't overly hard on him and just made sure that he finished 2nd. He was pushed out to 6/1 after the race which surprised me as I reckon we will see a much improved performance next time out now he has got this opening run under his belt.

Winged Leader was the winner of the race and he has been cut from 20/1 into 8/1 2nd favourite for Cheltenham. It was a good front running performance and his trainer said he would be entered for Cheltenham although he thinks he might be more one for Aintree. In my first piece I rubbished his chances for Cheltenham, but regardless of the 2nd needing the run it was clearly an improved performance from his previous form. At this stage though I still don't rate him as a possible winner of this race and I would back Billaway to reverse the form as he clearly had a fitness edge over him on Sunday. Its All Guesswork and Stand Up And Fight were 3rd and 4th and are in some bookies prices, but neither look likely winners.

I shall stay in Ireland and look at another Willie Mullins horse called Good Bye Sam. When I was looking through the odds I thought who on earth is this horse at 20/1 in the betting as I had never heard of him. Turns out he had a few runs in France without winning the last of which was in October 2020. Since then he has gone to the Mullins yard and on the 15th January he finished 2nd in a maiden point. Clearly someone must have asked around for a price because otherwise the bookies wouldn't have priced him up. I know he's a great trainer, but it would be some feat to even get him qualified for Cheltenham let alone for him to be a possible winner of the race.

At Turtulla on January 16th Aloneamongmillions made a winning seasonal debut. He was quite high in the betting for this race last year before finishing 3rd at Down Royal and then disappointing at Naas a year ago. This was his first run since and it was good to see him get back to winning ways. He's not in the betting at the moment and I don't know if this is the target, but he ought to be in the betting. He had Er Dancer 3L back in 2nd and Killultagh Vic was well beaten in 4th. Both of those 2 are in the betting, but the latter has little chance of qualifying now.

With hunter chases starting back up this side of the Irish Sea we will start to see who the leading candidates will be for the British although I doubt anything from the first two will trouble the judge at Cheltenham and that is even if they run. Hogan's Height won well at Ludlow under a good Gina Andrews ride, but his trainer didn't sound like this race was the target although if he qualified his owners might well fancy a runner at the Festival. He is 33/1 and to me that represents the sort of chance he would have.

At Warwick we saw some disappointing efforts especially from Kimberlite Candy, but Reikers Island was a good winner under a superb front running ride. He has been put in at 25/1, but his trainer has said that Aintree is his target as his owner wants to ride him over the National fences.

On Sunday Highway Jewel made a winning seasonal appearance at Chipley Park in a Mixed Open. It was only a 3 runner race, but her two opponents had already both won this season so she wasn't beating no hopers and they both had race fitness on their side. She made all and put the race to bed in impressive style at 3 out. Understandably she got a bit tired on the run-in, but she clocked by far the quickest time on the card despite being eased off late on. If she had won under Rules then her price would have shortened, but because it was a point she was unchanged at a general 20/1. I wouldn't mind seeing her get some more experience in a Hunter Chase pre Cheltenham, but she certainly looks in good nick at the price is a fair one.

Last year's winner Porlock Bay has a hunter chase entry at Hereford on Monday and a point entry at Milborne St Andrew the day before so it looks like we might well see him in action in the next few days.