3. Liga Predictions > Dec 10th - 13th

[Benny1887]

Turkgucu Munchen - Kaiserslautern

Kaiserslautern +0 @1.70 (Pinnacle)

Not the biggest odds here, but feeling super comfortable with the +0 line - first of all, no fans are allowed in the tradition-rich Olympiastadion. A home factor is thus barely existing, especially because Turkgucu started the season in another stadium. Then, Turkgucu are still without a new manager after Hyballa has been fired. They have shown slightly positive tendencies among interims manager Kayabunar, but still the performances among him were far away from being convicing. They were lucky to keep a draw at home against rather weak Zwickau (1:1) when they only had 3 chances in the entire match. And last week, they could have easily been behind 3:0 after 10 minutes away at Viktoria Berlin and only after Viktoria were down to 10 men, Turkgucu started creating chances. All in all, Turkgucu have been the biggest disappointment in 3. Liga so far. In theory, they have a good and very experienced squad, but in practise, they just never deliver. Their style is also just too predictable with every attack being started with playmaker Sararer. They have big problems in terms of creativity and are among the teams in this league that create the fewest chances.

Kaiserslautern are truly one class stronger at the moment. They have been in a terrific form since the derby against Mannheim, when they achieved a 0:0, after being unjustifiably down to 9 men in the first half. This game somehow brought a really good spirit to the team and since then, they did not make a single bad game anymore. They are on a 7-2-1 run and are currently probably the best team in the league behind Magdeburg. Today they are without their important player Götze, but Tomiak returns after his yellow lock. And Götze was missing in many games before already and also without him, they have shown good performances. So his missing should be bearable. Also their manager Antwerpen will not be available today but again, this should not be a too big disadvantage.

Altogether, differences between both sides are just massive. Turkgucu play much worse and have not won any of their last 6 games. On the other hand, Kaiserslautern have been on fire and they also play very well away from home. A draw should be the maximum for Turkgucu which is why I really fancy the +0 here and don't see too much risk for losing this one.

[Benny1887]

Duisburg - Verl

Verl +0.5 @1.86 (ISN)

Both teams are in a big crisis and struggle against relegation. Tradition club Duisburg, however, has more pressure than small club Verl. For them, the entire situation is a nightmare and things did not get better when they experienced a last-minute defeat at Freiburg II (0:1) last Sunday. The manager change did not have any positive impact, and altogether the team is just weaker than almost every other 3. Liga team (including Verl), and I think that their squad is not balanced enough. They have many experienced but also slow players, so they lack pace in general, and also their most prominent players like Stoppelkamp or Bakalorz have been in a terrible form for the duration of the entire season. The situation in Duisburg is really critical, and the club atmosphere could barely be any worse. 

 

Verl are in a crisis as well, but the difference is that they have been displaying some really nice and attractive football. Their problem is their defense, and this is something they need to work on. At their latest away game in Wehen (0:0), they managed to keep a clean sheet after all. Then last week, they again looked very bad defensively against strong Dortmund II (0:3). But Duisburg's offensive really is not comparable with Dortmund's one in terms of pace and quality. So, I don't think that Verl should allow too many chances at Duisburg. What is important is that their two best offensive players, Rabihic and Putaro, are going to return to the squad after having missed against Dortmund. Together with striker Akono, who has returned a few weeks ago, they now have an excellent offensive available.

 

All in all, I see Verl as the simply better team. They have much more pace, much more technical quality and simply play better football. Their offensive line consisting of Akono, Rabihic and Putaro actually embodies high standards for 3. Liga. I think that these guys will cause a lot of trouble for Duisburg's weak defense. Also, the home advantage isn't that large due to covid restrictions and a lack of fan support for Duisburg in general. I see this as almost a 50/50 match, thus we have a crystal-clear value bet on Verl. 

[Benny1887]

Viktoria Köln - Braunschweig

Braunschweig +0 @1.90 (Singbet)

Braunschweig are certainly the favourites in this match. They are currently one of the best in form teams in 3. Liga, and recent games were simply great. Last week they beat Meppen by 5:0, and Meppen had won 5 games in a row before. The away game before at Würzburg was super strong as well, when they were one class stronger than their opponent. Their form really could not be any better at the moment.

Viktoria are better than their table position and most important player Risse has returned after his injury. Nevertheless, they are inferior to Braunschweig and also lost 4:0 last week. They do too many mistakes in the defense in general.

Also, Viktoria does not really have a home advantage. They have almost no fan support and in my opinion, they do not play much better at home compared with away. So the home advantage alone cannot be the reason to have almost even odds for this match. I am sure that Braunschweig are the favourites here, thus this is a great price. 

[Benny1887]

Meppen - Viktoria Berlin

Viktoria Berlin +0.25 @1.99 (ISN)

First of all, Meppen have a long list of missing players anyway and now it's been published that there are 3 more covid cases for today (unclear who it is). Their squad power is quite reduced due to that (around 10 potentially important players are absent). Then, secondly, Meppen are probably the most overperforming team in this league. They are doing very well indeed, but they certainly aren't a top team. Actually, they relegated last season and only stayed up due to Uerdingen losing their license. Now they are the perhaps biggest surprise in this season, but they had many games in which they scored with each shot on target. For example at their 4:0 against Viktoria Cologne, they had I think 4 chances and scored 4 goals. They have been living on their enormous efficiency but this will not last forever. Last week, they have been brought back to reality when they lost 5:0 at Braunschweig after having had a winning streak.

Viktoria Berlin are a bit the opposite of Meppen in terms of over- or in this case underperforming. They have been playing well in the last weeks but not rewarded themselves. But if they will continue to play like that, results will surely come. They are strong at counters and in general a top third team in terms of technique. They are also definitely superior to Meppen when it comes to the technical ability. 

Due to those facts, Meppen is not such a clear favourite as those odds imply. 

[Benny1887]

On 12/10/2021 at 3:54 PM, Benny1887 said:

Turkgucu Munchen - Kaiserslautern

Kaiserslautern +0 @1.70 (Pinnacle)

Not the biggest odds here, but feeling super comfortable with the +0 line - first of all, no fans are allowed in the tradition-rich Olympiastadion. A home factor is thus barely existing, especially because Turkgucu started the season in another stadium. Then, Turkgucu are still without a new manager after Hyballa has been fired. They have shown slightly positive tendencies among interims manager Kayabunar, but still the performances among him were far away from being convicing. They were lucky to keep a draw at home against rather weak Zwickau (1:1) when they only had 3 chances in the entire match. And last week, they could have easily been behind 3:0 after 10 minutes away at Viktoria Berlin and only after Viktoria were down to 10 men, Turkgucu started creating chances. All in all, Turkgucu have been the biggest disappointment in 3. Liga so far. In theory, they have a good and very experienced squad, but in practise, they just never deliver. Their style is also just too predictable with every attack being started with playmaker Sararer. They have big problems in terms of creativity and are among the teams in this league that create the fewest chances.

Kaiserslautern are truly one class stronger at the moment. They have been in a terrific form since the derby against Mannheim, when they achieved a 0:0, after being unjustifiably down to 9 men in the first half. This game somehow brought a really good spirit to the team and since then, they did not make a single bad game anymore. They are on a 7-2-1 run and are currently probably the best team in the league behind Magdeburg. Today they are without their important player Götze, but Tomiak returns after his yellow lock. And Götze was missing in many games before already and also without him, they have shown good performances. So his missing should be bearable. Also their manager Antwerpen will not be available today but again, this should not be a too big disadvantage.

Altogether, differences between both sides are just massive. Turkgucu play much worse and have not won any of their last 6 games. On the other hand, Kaiserslautern have been on fire and they also play very well away from home. A draw should be the maximum for Turkgucu which is why I really fancy the +0 here and don't see too much risk for losing this one.

FT 1:1 - bet won - Kaiserslautern had a perfect start with two early goals (second one due to a big goalkeeper mistake). Afterwards and especially in the second half, they became very passive. But Turkgucu was very uncreative as well, so that it was enough to closely win this match. Turkgucu had one big chance for a potential equaliser, whereas Kaiserslautern had to get a clear penalty after Hanslik was knocked out in the penalty box.
 

On 12/11/2021 at 12:54 AM, Benny1887 said:

Duisburg - Verl

Verl +0.5 @1.86 (ISN)

Both teams are in a big crisis and struggle against relegation. Tradition club Duisburg, however, has more pressure than small club Verl. For them, the entire situation is a nightmare and things did not get better when they experienced a last-minute defeat at Freiburg II (0:1) last Sunday. The manager change did not have any positive impact, and altogether the team is just weaker than almost every other 3. Liga team (including Verl), and I think that their squad is not balanced enough. They have many experienced but also slow players, so they lack pace in general, and also their most prominent players like Stoppelkamp or Bakalorz have been in a terrible form for the duration of the entire season. The situation in Duisburg is really critical, and the club atmosphere could barely be any worse. 

 

Verl are in a crisis as well, but the difference is that they have been displaying some really nice and attractive football. Their problem is their defense, and this is something they need to work on. At their latest away game in Wehen (0:0), they managed to keep a clean sheet after all. Then last week, they again looked very bad defensively against strong Dortmund II (0:3). But Duisburg's offensive really is not comparable with Dortmund's one in terms of pace and quality. So, I don't think that Verl should allow too many chances at Duisburg. What is important is that their two best offensive players, Rabihic and Putaro, are going to return to the squad after having missed against Dortmund. Together with striker Akono, who has returned a few weeks ago, they now have an excellent offensive available.

 

All in all, I see Verl as the simply better team. They have much more pace, much more technical quality and simply play better football. Their offensive line consisting of Akono, Rabihic and Putaro actually embodies high standards for 3. Liga. I think that these guys will cause a lot of trouble for Duisburg's weak defense. Also, the home advantage isn't that large due to covid restrictions and a lack of fan support for Duisburg in general. I see this as almost a 50/50 match, thus we have a crystal-clear value bet on Verl. 

FT 2:2 - bet won - The draw is roughly fair, but if one team had deserved the win, then it was Verl. They played a strong second half, conceded the equaliser through an unnecessary penalty and then had some good opportunities to make it 2:3.
 

On 12/11/2021 at 12:51 PM, Benny1887 said:

Viktoria Köln - Braunschweig

Braunschweig +0 @1.90 (Singbet)

Braunschweig are certainly the favourites in this match. They are currently one of the best in form teams in 3. Liga, and recent games were simply great. Last week they beat Meppen by 5:0, and Meppen had won 5 games in a row before. The away game before at Würzburg was super strong as well, when they were one class stronger than their opponent. Their form really could not be any better at the moment.

Viktoria are better than their table position and most important player Risse has returned after his injury. Nevertheless, they are inferior to Braunschweig and also lost 4:0 last week. They do too many mistakes in the defense in general.

Also, Viktoria does not really have a home advantage. They have almost no fan support and in my opinion, they do not play much better at home compared with away. So the home advantage alone cannot be the reason to have almost even odds for this match. I am sure that Braunschweig are the favourites here, thus this is a great price. 

FT 1:2 - bet won - Braunschweig's victory was very lucky. Viktoria benefitted from some close referee decisions in the first half, taking a very early lead via penalty. Braunschweig had some good phases and equalised early in the second half. After the 1:1, however, Viktoria were dominant. They missed some decent chances with the biggest one being a handball penalty shortly before the end. Braunschweig's late 1:2 came pretty much out of blue air.

 

On 12/12/2021 at 8:37 AM, Benny1887 said:

Meppen - Viktoria Berlin

Viktoria Berlin +0.25 @1.99 (ISN)

First of all, Meppen have a long list of missing players anyway and now it's been published that there are 3 more covid cases for today (unclear who it is). Their squad power is quite reduced due to that (around 10 potentially important players are absent). Then, secondly, Meppen are probably the most overperforming team in this league. They are doing very well indeed, but they certainly aren't a top team. Actually, they relegated last season and only stayed up due to Uerdingen losing their license. Now they are the perhaps biggest surprise in this season, but they had many games in which they scored with each shot on target. For example at their 4:0 against Viktoria Cologne, they had I think 4 chances and scored 4 goals. They have been living on their enormous efficiency but this will not last forever. Last week, they have been brought back to reality when they lost 5:0 at Braunschweig after having had a winning streak.

Viktoria Berlin are a bit the opposite of Meppen in terms of over- or in this case underperforming. They have been playing well in the last weeks but not rewarded themselves. But if they will continue to play like that, results will surely come. They are strong at counters and in general a top third team in terms of technique. They are also definitely superior to Meppen when it comes to the technical ability. 

Due to those facts, Meppen is not such a clear favourite as those odds imply. 

FT 3:0 - bet lost - Viktoria lost this game in the first 15 minutes. They conceded the early 1:0 after a corner and then Pinckert got his 2nd yellow card after 15 minutes. They hit the bar at 2:0 and also had some decent attacks in the second half but all in all, they were far away from equalising the 2:0. The 3:0 ultimately decided the game.