Racing Chat - Friday November 12th

[The Brigadier]

Cheltenham’s three day Paddy Power meeting begins with four races on ITV and here’s my analysis on that quartet. Ground wise I think we’ll be looking at a surface on the slow side of good with watering having taking place earlier in the week and just the possibility of a passing shower.

 

Cheltenham 1.45

An interesting 2 miles handicap chase features last years winner and today’s top weight Magic Saint. He probably needed his reappearance run at Wetherby and a 2lb drop in the weights means he can race off of the exact same mark as last year. 5lb conditional Brian Carver ride him last year  and this year it’s the turn of 5lb conditional Angus Cheleda. He must go well. Stolen Silver appeared to improve for the change of stables when winning a 3 runner handicap at Market Rasen and Sam Thomas’s latest acquisition will presumably adopt front running tactics here which were seen to great effect that day. Kap Auteuil comes here on a roll having won his last four races for rookie trainer Toby Lawes and shouldn’t be dismissed whilst the best outsider may well be Bun Dorian who’s extremely well handicapped on his back form and has had his wind tinkered with since last seen. Slight preference is for Stolen Silver over Magic Saint and he’s the selection. 

STOLEN SILVER 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 2.20

A disappointing turnout of only two go to post for this 2m 4F novices’ Chase. Hot favourite is the chasing debutant of Dan Skelton’s My Drogo who was a very smart novice hurdler last season winning all 4 of his hurdles including two grade 2’s and a grade one at the Aintree National Festival. His sole opponent comes from Ireland and has plenty of fencing experience although has to carry a 8lb penalty here which isn’t going to make it easy against My Drogo. Gin On Lime has won 4 of his 5 chase starts this year on summer ground. He’s no mug and should give the favourite a stern challenge but I do feel if My Drogo jumps he should be winning this. He’ll be at prohibitive odds so it’s a no play race for me.

 

Cheltenham 2.55

A cross country handicap chase run over 3m 6F with an open look about it this year. Surprisingly there’s very little previous course form here with Potters Corner who finished 3rd last year and 2019 winner Diesel D’Allier the pick if you follow course form. The latter incidentally is having his first run for new trainer Richard J Bandey. I’ve had some success in these races over the years with the French challengers but they too are conspicuous by their absence this season. The class horse is the top weight Balko Des Flos for the Henry De Bromhead team who unseated over this course on his only spin round last March at the Festival when only a 6/1 chance. He’s had a nice pipe opener over hurdler and was a 100/1 runner up in last years Grand National to Minella Times. He’s been ridden by Rachael Blackmore and should run well. Fellow Irish challenger Freewheeling Dylan is interesting in that he won the Irish National at 150/1 last Spring and could run well also. Not a race that really inspires me this year and I’ll keep stakes low and play Balko Des Flos. 

BALKO DES FLOS 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 3.30

7 go to post for this grade 2 2m 5F novices hurdle with the favourite hailing from the Paul Nicholls stable in Gelino Bello. He was mightily impressive when winning on his hurdles debut at Aintree. He looks smart but is priced accordingly and I feel there maybe better value elsewhere. The Irish send three over and the money over the last 48 hours for the Charles Byrnes trained Blazing Khal looks significant. He also impressed on his hurdles bow when winning a maiden hurdle at Galway in October and is maybe the way to go here. Gordon Elliott sends over the penalised Off Your Rocco who won a listed novice hurdle at Limerick last time out which is the best piece of form in the race but the 5lb penalty may negate that. I like Gelino Bello but at the prices it’s Blazing Khal for me. 

BLAZING KHAL 2 points win @ 5/1 William Hill

 

 

[calva decoy]

Cheltenham 

110- FONTANA ELLISSI 28/1 ew sky 7 places 

145- KAP AUTEUIL 6/1 £ back if 2nd or 3rd .

220- GIN ON LIME ( no bet )

255- DIESEL D'ALIER ( no bet ) 

330- GELINO BELLO ( no bet ) 

400- BRORSON 15/2 ew sky 6 places .

 

shocking day betting wise , 1st ,2nd & 3rd otherwise .?

Edited November 12, 2021 by calva decoy
results update