NFL - Week 7

[PercyP]

Vegas has stretched the spreads this week. Remember a win by one point is still a win.

(1) Tampa will be happy with a win. Bears to keep it closer than 12.5 Bears + 12.5 @ 10/11

(2) Washington’s defence has not fired this season. This could be the week. Washington + 9.5 @ 10/11

(3) Not a lot has gone right for the G men. The ability is there. New York Giants to win @ 13/10

(4) Miami started well in London before falling away. A home win is needed. Miami to win @ 23/20

(5) New England have already beaten the Jets. Mac Jones is starting to click. Patriots - 7 @ 10/11

Usual bet 1 point Canadian plus 4 point accumulator = 30 points staked.

All prices and spreads from Bet365.

[harry_rag]

2 for me in the first game of the week.

Denver at Cleveland:

15 points on Sutton to score at TD at 9/4

10 points on Patrick to score a TD at 3/1

Both with Fred.

[PercyP]

I like good teams starting favourite after their bye week.

(6) The 49Ers will be rested and have plans for beating the Colts -  49Ers -4  @ 10/11

(7) Saints also off a bye. Saints - 4.5 @ 10/11

(8) The Eagles have lost 4 games all to top teams. Expect a better showing this week. Eagles + 3 @ 10/11

(9) The Rams will love attacking former Qb Goff. Rams - 15 @ 10/11

(10) Ravens will have the measure of the Bengals. Baltimore - 6 @ 10/11

0.5 point Canadian plus 2 point accumulator. 15 points staked. Prices Bet365.

Good luck all.

[harry_rag]

No joy with the first 2 bets this week, one or 2 tonight depending on whether the second one gets matched.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: 15 points on Chase to score a TD at 3.25 and on Higgins at 3.6.

Take it both are on, I'll update if Higgins goes unmatched.

[PercyP]

Week 7 did not go to plan. The Patriots and G men had comfortable wins. The Dolphins managed to lose with the last play of the game and Washington were unlucky with the Qb sliding in for a touch down only for it to be ruled out. The Bears were useless.

Set 1 bets W2 L3 returned just 4.39 points. Loss of 25.61.

YTD W29 D1 L20 profit 27.68

Set 2 results to come. Not looking good.

[harry_rag]

19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

No joy with the first 2 bets this week, one or 2 tonight depending on whether the second one gets matched.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: 15 points on Chase to score a TD at 3.25 and on Higgins at 3.6.

Take it both are on, I'll update if Higgins goes unmatched.

Matched unfortunately so 1-1 last night and 1-3 for the week with 1 game to go.

[harry_rag]

New Orleans at Seattle: 12 points on Calloway to score a TD at 12/5 Hills and 15 on Metcalf at 15/8 (hoping to get matched for more on BF, will confirm).

Metcalf the stronger selection here, has scored 5 TDs in 4 of his 6 games this season (includes a brace). Overall he's scored 22 in 18 out of 38 games. My "true" odds (based on spreads) are 2.65 so there's enough of an edge given the stats.

Calloway has 3 in 5 this season including a brace last time out, though he didn't score in 11 games in his debut season. The spread firms rate him higher as my true odds are 2.8 and most firms are shorter than 2/1. Enough perceived value for me to take a chance at the price.

[harry_rag]

6 hours ago, harry_rag said:

New Orleans at Seattle: 12 points on Calloway to score a TD at 12/5 Hills and 15 on Metcalf at 15/8 (hoping to get matched for more on BF, will confirm).

15 points matched at 3.05 on Metcalf.

[PercyP]

OH DEAR, 

W0 L5 a weekly loss of 15 points.

It can’t get any worse.

YTD W29 D1 L25 Profit +12.68 points

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, PercyP said:

W0 L5 a weekly loss of 15 points.

Better luck next week, still nicely in front though. I was lucky enough to find one of the 2 TD scorers in Metcalf last night, to finish the week on a winning note.

2 from 6 this week with 82 points returning 93.22 for an 11.22 point profit.

36.17 points up for the season with 13 winners from 46 bets and an ROI of 4.94%. 4.52 points down to level stakes.