Racing Chat - Saturday 16th October

[Darran]

Obviously we have British Champions Day to look forward to over here on Saturday, but there is more prize money up for grabs in The Everest alone in Australia on the same day. The Everest is the richest race run on turf in the world and is Race 7 (6.15am) at Randwick. Meanwhile at Caulfield we have the Caulfield Cup which is R8 (7.15am). The Everest will be on Sky Sports Racing and if you want to watch Caulfield then you can go to Racing.com, sign up for a free account and you will be able to watch their coverage.

 

The Everest

 

Nature Strip - His win in the T J Smith last April over course and distance marked him down as the best sprinter in the world, but then his following prep a year ago was pretty poor. He didn't win in 4 starts and was just 7th in this contest. He bounced back though this autumn when winning the Black Caviar Lightning in February at Flemington and he landed the T J Smith again beating Masked Crusader by 2L. This prep he impressively landed the G3 Concorde Stakes on his return before finishing 2nd to Eduardo in the Shorts 4 weeks ago. Interestingly he was also beaten by Eduardo in between his Lightning win and his T J Smith win earlier in the year and easily reversed the form as that one was just 3rd in the T J. He was a close 4th in this contest in 2019 so there is a concern that he has already come up short in 2 attempts, but he is certainly coming into this renewal in better form than he was last year and I'd argue he is a better horse now than he was in 2019. He's proven himself if it gets very wet and he's got a big chance and has been very well backed in the last couple of days.

 

Classique Legend - He was very good when bolting up in this race last year when favourite and if he turns up in that form then he will be hard to bear. The problem for me was he then went to Hong Kong and was a big disappointment at Sha Tin. He was going to be trained their full time, but it was decided to bring him back to Australia and aim him at this instead. That run is his only start since last year's Everest and as much as he looked good in his trials I can't help but think a lack of a prep run will stop him from winning this. I think he would need to be as good as he was last year to win and with no guarantee that he will be I will be happy to look elsewhere.

 

Eduardo - Was a well beaten 11th in this race last year, but I think he has improved since then as so far in 2021 he has won 4 of his 5 starts. The one defeat came in the T J Smith when 3rd to Nature Strip as mentioned above. I really liked the way he fought back to beat Nature Strip in the Shorts last time. Obviously he beat him in March before losing to him in the T J, but maybe his win in the Galaxy had just left it's mark so he wasn't quite at his best in the T J. This time around he's just had that one start and I certainly think he will be much closer than last year.

 

Gytrash - He was a good 3rd in this last year and he went on to win the Yes Yes Yes Stakes on a Heavy 9 which is his only start on a heavy track. He has a good record on all surfaces and on a soft track he has never been out of the first 3 in 9 starts. He was a bit disappointing in a couple of G1's in May, but I thought he ran a huge race in the Shorts behind Nature Strip and Eduardo. He tried to go for a run between the first two late on, but the gap wasn't there and he couldn't be ridden out in the final 75m. I think he might well have won if he had got a clear run as he was just getting going. His campaign has been built around this contest and given there ought to be plenty of pace in the race I think it could set things up nicely for him. At the very least I think he can equal last year's 3rd place and he could easily go two places better if building on his first time out effort.

 

Trekking - He hasn't won since The Goodwood when he beat Gytrash by a short head last May. He was 3rd in this in 2019 and 4th last year and he looks to be regressing since so I think it will be hard to equal let alone beat those two positions.

 

Masked Crusader - Has got some very good form including when winning a G2 over course and distance a couple of weeks ago, but he has tending to find himself a long way back in his races and as much as there will be a fast pace, I am not sure he is good enough to mow them all down. He was a well beaten 5th in the Shorts as well.

 

Wild Ruler - Was 2nd to Nature Strip last month on the first run of the prep and then won the G1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley last time just holding on from The Inferno. He is 4/5 at the track and 2/2 over course and distance, but he looks like he needs a good track and I'm not sure he will be good enough to win anyway.

 

The Inferno - Only got beaten once in 9 starts in Singapore and won a G2 at Moonee Valley on his debut in Australia. I thought he was going to go past Wild Ruler in the Moir, but his run just flattened out slightly late on. He did have to come wide that day though and the step up to 1200m should suit. Can finish in the top half, but not sure he will be good enough to hit the frame.

 

Embracer - The outsider and will be surprising if he plays a part in the finish.

 

Lost And Running - Has risen through the grades, but he was last in the Shorts and 4th to Masked Crusader last time which suggests to me he isn't up to this level yet.

 

Libertini - Has been kept fresh for this and did beat Classique Legend 1st up last October. That one did get a wide passage that day though and she then only finished 8th in this last year. Was 3rd to Masked Crusader and 8th in the T J Smith and it's hard to see her doing a great deal.

 

Home Affairs - The only 3yo in the race and he did win a Listed Race well last month, but he went from the front that day and he surely wont be able to lead the likes of Eduardo and Nature Strip here. Gets the weight concession, but I don't think he will be good enough.

 

Analysis - I really do think the winner will come from one of the top 4 in the race card as all things being equal I do think they have a little class edge on the rest of the field. None of them will surprise, but I am going to side with Gytrash e/w. A good 3rd in this last year and his 2021 has been all about setting him up for this race. I thought he was unlucky not to win the Shorts on his return and he has a good chance of reversing the form with the two who finished in front of him. At the very least I think he will finish in the 3 again and the price allows us to back him e/w. I think Nature Strip and Eduardo will follow him home in that order with Classique Legend finding the race a little tough 1st up.

 

Gytrash @ 7.5 to win and 2.35 to place with Bet365

 

Caulfield Cup

Whereas the Everest is having just it's 5th running, this will be the 145th running of the Caulfield Cup. Usually we have a few European runners in the race, but we have none this time around although there are some ex European horses in the contest. I have chosen 7 to have a closer look at in race card order.

 

Incentivise - Started his career just over a year ago finishing 9th at Ipswich and then had a break until March when he finished 6th and then a well beaten 8th at Toowoomba. If at that stage you would have said he would be a hot favourite for the Caulfield Cup you would have been taken away by the men in white coats! Since then he has won 8 on the bounce as he has worked his way through the grades both in Queensland and Melbourne the last twice where he won the Makybe Diva and the Turnbull, both G1's at Flemington. On form I think he certainly deserves to be as short as he is because he looks a top class horse, the big problem though is the draw. He has the widest stall of all which isn't great, but we have seen horses drawn wide win in recent years so if he gets a clear run then he will be very hard to beat.

 

Explosive Jack - A 3 times Derby winner having won the Tasmanian, ATC and SA versions. He clearly wants this sort of trip based on those wins as well as his runs in the Makybe Diva and the Turnbull, where he was finishing his race off to good effect. He was beaten about 4L by Incentivise in the Turnbull and carried 0.5kgs more compared to carrying 1.5kgs less here. That will certainly help, but I can't help thinking he might need a longer straight to get up a head of steam especially as he's drawn on the rail. He could well stay on to hit the frame though.

 

The Chosen One - Was a cracking 3rd in this last year and then backed that up with a 4th in the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn campaign was not so good, but he has returned in decent form this prep. Last Saturday he was 2nd to Delphi in the Herbert Power which should set him up nicely for this, although I thought the winner won very comfortably that day. His soft/heavy form doesn't look great, but he did manage a 2nd in the Sydney Cup on a Heavy 8 last year.

 

Delphi - He is a horse who you might well recognise as he landed the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes at the Curragh last August when trained by Aidan O'Brien. He then wasn't seen for 302 days before disappointing at Eagle Farm in a Listed Race. He was given another little break and has got better with each start all at Caulfield. He was 4th back in August over 1m and then just missed out to Nonconformist in a G3 over 1m2f. Then up to 1m4f last week he won hard held in the Herbert Power. Damien Oliver was very keen to ride him again in this and 52.5kgs is a struggle for him to get down to. He has won on the back of a quick run before so that shouldn't be an issue, especially as it looks like he has been trained to peak for this contest. The concern is his draw in 19, but otherwise he looks set to go close.

 

She's Ideal - She is the one of the bigger prices who I think can go well. I liked her win in the G3 Kingston Town over 2000m at Randwick last month and that looked like it would set her up nicely for this. She does come on the back of a seemingly poor run in the G1 Metropolitan 2 weeks ago though, but I think there are reasons behind that. She was drawn very wide that day and went to the back of the field. She had to deliver her charge widest of all down the straight and she stayed on nicely enough. I do want to see a wet track for her which she looks like she will get and with a much better draw in 5 I think she could hit the frame at big odds.

 

Young Werther - He has only won once, but has run some huge races in defeat. He was 2nd to Explosive Jack in the ATC Derby and last time was a 1/2L 2nd to Incentivise in the Turnbull. On that run he is clearly a big player here and he does have a much better draw although he does meet him 0.5kgs worse off. My gut feeling is though that Incentivise will have too much for him again, but he can go well.

 

Nonconformist - Another one of the leading fancies who has drawn poorly in 16, but you can't knock his form so far this prep. He beat Delphi in the Naturalism and then was beaten a nose last week in the G1 Caulfield Stakes where he is one place in front of Cox Plate favourite Zaaki. That was a slowly run race though and the concern for me would be the trip. He's had just one go at it and finished 2nd in the Mornington Cup back in March. A decent enough effort, but this is a better race. On the upside he does look a better horse so he might stay better now.

 

Analysis - Those 7 for me are the leading chances and Incentivise could well just prove too good for them despite his awful draw. The question is the price though and is it any value? For me he is the right price so I will look elsewhere and put up a couple e/w. First one has to be Delphi who looked really good last week and looked to have plenty more in the tank. If he builds on that then I think he can at least hit the frame. I will also cover She's Ideel as she looks overpriced to me especially if the forecast rain hits.

 

Delphi e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places)

She's Ideel e/w @ 22/1 with William Hill (5 places)

[The Brigadier]

A terrific days racing is in store at Ascot for Champions Day with the ground likely to ride on the soft side on the straight track and softer on the round course. Here’s my thoughts on the 6 races.

 

Ascot 1.25

The British Champions  Long Distance Cup is run over two miles and has attracted a quality field of twelve. Last years very easy winner Trueshan is back to defend his title and following a impressive win over Stradivarius in the Prix Du Cadran over 2 miles 4 furlongs will surely be hard to beat. The ground should be slow enough for Alan King’s stayer and he can confirm Paris form with the Gosden’s super stayer Stradivarius. Princess Zoe was behind that pair in Paris so is easily dismissed here. Hamish defied a long layoff when beating Hukum (winner since) on the all weather at Kempton but has to prove his stamina stepping up in trip. If he stays he could be a contender but without being boring this can go to Trueshan who’s easy win in this last year will live long in the memory. 

TRUESHAN 2 points win @ 7/4 William Hill

 

Ascot 2.00

A maximum field of 20 go to post for the 6F Group one sprint and has an open look about it. Godolphin’s Creative Force has kept his form well throughout the season and should be thereabouts. Similar comments can be applied to Archie Watson’s Dragon Symbol. Minzaal is lightly raced and a possible also following a nice comeback Foy the Shadwell team of Owen Burrows. The one I like here is David Evan’s Rohaan who ran an astonishing race at The Curragh last time over 5F in the Flying Five. Watching the race back again you’ll see he was left at least ten lengths at the start but gradually made up the deficit to get within 3/4L of Dragon Symbol at the death. He’s two from two at the Berkshire track and Ryan Moore has been booked. He’ll do for me each way with enhanced place terms. 

ROHAAN 1 1/2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 12345 William Hill

 

Ascot 2.35

The third race on the card is the Group 1 Fillies And Mares Stakes and is the weakest Group race of the day. Aidan O’Brien’s super three year old filly Snowfall has been re-routed here following the defection of stablemate Love and has a banker look about her. On official ratings she is 10lb and upwards better than these and has beaten many of them comprehensively earlier in the season. As long as she’s got over her race in the Arc a fortnight ago surely she wins well here. She wasn’t disgraced that day when finishing 6th and with Ryan Moore on top I really can’t oppose her here. She’s the day’s best bet. Andrew Balding runs a couple and his Invite made a winning stable debut for him at Chester and is maybe the one to chase Snowfall home all be it at a comfortable distance. 

SNOWFALL 4 points win 4/5 Bet365

 

Ascot 3.10

The Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is worth a guaranteed  £1.1 million and this one mile contest run on the straight track has ten quality animals entered this year. Palace Pier’s only defeat in his 10 race career came in this race last year but he had excuses as the ground was very soft and he lost a shoe. He’s bounced back from that blip to win all four of his contests this season and is without doubt the one they all have to beat for Messr’s Gosden’s and Dettori. It’s an intriguing contest because we have the unbeaten William Haggas trained Baaeed who brings into the race a perfect 5 from 5 starts. There’s only 4lb between the big two here and it’s without doubt a race to savour. There are some big prices about some smart horses with the chunk of the market taken up by the front pair including last years winner The Revenant who would of preferred it even softer and Alcohol Free who may not have stayed 10F last time and can be competitive. Charlie Appleby runs his smart three year old Master Of The Seas but the Breeders Cup Turf is his primary end of season target (I most certainly wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 12/1 about him before this contest for the Del Mar race) and won’t disgrace himself. It’s a tough call but Palace Pier has been there and done it and I expect him to confirm his position as champion miler of the world today. 

PALACE PIER 2 points win @ 7/4 William Hill

 

Ascot 3.50

£1.2 million is there to be won in this 10F Group 1 Champion Stakes run over 10F and has attracted a quality field of 10. John and Thady Gosden’s Mishriff comes here following one of the most impressive wins of the season when scooting clear of his rivals in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York in August although it could be argued that beating Alenquer and Love who have both been beaten since with likely non stayer Alcohol Free further down the field wasn’t as impressive as first thought. He has met his main rival here previously over 2F further than today when chasing home Charlie Appleby’s Derby winner Adayar in the King George at Ascot. Mishriff will be 7lb better off today for 1 3/4L and should appreciate the shorter trip. Adayar missed work prior to his follow up run from the King George in the Arc De Triomphe a fortnight ago when racing a bit too keenly but not been disgraced in finishing 4th beaten some 3 3/4L. He’s dropping back in trip here and with his exuberant way of racing the trip may actually suit him and it would not be a surprise to see William Buick make plenty of use of him rather than restraining him as in previous starts. Last years winner Addeybb is back to defend his title and will not be disgraced though ideally could of done with softer conditions whilst Arc 5th Sealiway was only just behind Adayar that day so can’t be totally ruled out. The best outsider may be Haggas’s Al Aasy who may well be suited by a strong pace and is probably better than he’s shown in his last couple of runs. A cracking contest with slight preference for Mishriff to add to his career earnings of over £11 million here with regular rider David Egan in the saddle. 

MISHRIFF 2 points win @ 7/4William Hill

 

Ascot 4.30

The card finishes with a cracking 1 mile handicap, The Balmoral Handicap with a maximum field of 20 going to post with John & Thady Gosden appearing to hold the key to the race with the front two in the market of Sunray Major to be ridden by Frankie Dettori and King Leonidas (James Doyle). The former impressed when winning at the track over a furlong shorter a fortnight ago and despite a 6lb penalty (which he needed to get a run here) is one pound well in. He must go close but at current prices of under 3/1 looks scant value now. Stable companion King Leonidas has by all accounts been working very well since his eye catching third at Newbury last month and each way is maybe the value call here.  Thought good enough to contest the Jersey Stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot (where he went off 9/4 fav.) he ran well following an absence of 457 days to finish third in a decent class 2 Newbury handicap and the reports are that he’s come forward for that run. Nugget comes here in good form but has avoided easy ground throughout his career and may just find the good to soft ground against him whilst Aldaary impressed last time and should be on the premises. A tough handicap with preference for the Gosden ‘2nd string’ in a race where he could too a good day but having the 1-2 here. 

KING LEONIDAS 2 points each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 1234567 Betfred