NFL - Week 5

[PercyP]

Four games into the season and only one team is undefeated. Nothing is certain with American football.
This week four of my selections suffered defeat last week and I am expecting them to all bounce back.

(1) Two weeks ago the Rams were Super Bowl favourites. Losing to the Cardinals would have hurt but they can return to winning ways against the Seahawks. LA Rams -2.0 @ 10/11

(2) The Vikings at home will score more this week against the Lions. Vikings -7.5 @ 20/21

(3) Without  David Montgomery and the run the Bears will struggle. Raiders -5.5 @ 10/11

(4) The Titans will come good this week. Henry to star against the Jags. Titans -4.0 @ 10/11

(5) Last week, I stated the Giants are good against the run, but Dallas can throw it as well. Dallas -7 @ 20/21

Standard bet 1 point Canadian plus 4 point roll up.

30 points staked. All prices Bet365.

 

[Charon84]

22 hours ago, PercyP said:

Four games into the season and only one team is undefeated. Nothing is certain with American football. Seldom teams get a 4-0 start. So it's not other then other years.
This week four of my selections suffered defeat last week and I am expecting them to all bounce back.

(1) Two weeks ago the Rams were Super Bowl favourites. Losing to the Cardinals would have hurt but they can return to winning ways against the Seahawks. LA Rams -2.0 @ 10/11 Careful with that one. Seahawks OC is former protege McVay and Seahawks O can match Cardinals O and exploit holes in Rams D the same way. Don't touch for me.

(2) The Vikings at home will score more this week against the Lions. Vikings -7.5 @ 20/21 Agree. How the hell is Goff with unknown WR winning from Cousins and Thielen/Jefferson? Blowout game Vikings.

(3) Without  David Montgomery and the run the Bears will struggle. Raiders -5.5 @ 10/11 Fields will be starter. Rookie isn't going to get away with a victory against the Raiders. Raiders touchdown+

(4) The Titans will come good this week. Henry to star against the Jags. Titans -4.0 @ 10/11 Agree. Henry should be able to demolish Jags D on his own. WR Chark out for Jags.

(5) Last week, I stated the Giants are good against the run, but Dallas can throw it as well. Dallas -7 @ 20/21 Line set correct.

Standard bet 1 point Canadian plus 4 point roll up.

30 points staked. All prices Bet365.

 

I'm continuing with my "follow the money" system. I runned that system along with some other systems the first weeks, but this system is the only working system for now. I use sites to get a decent feel about the cash/ticket split. I.e. in week 3 Bengals (+3.0) had 30% of bets (tickets) against Steelers, but that generated 70% of cash just before kickoff. In week 4 WFT (-1.5) had 55% of bets (tickets) against Falcons, but that generated 86% of cash just before kickoff. With that info I'm going to analyze the game further. Why is the 'big money' on them? Do I agree? So far the system runs 4-0. 

Edited October 6, 2021 by Charon84