Finding winners

[Bang on]

Thought I would start a new thread to discuss what everyone looks for when trying to find winners. For myself, I have made plenty of mistakes in the past, and still make plenty of mistakes now. I am not quite where I want to be yet, but I do make money from betting and don't mind discussing/sharing thoughts with others.

 So what are the variables ? What do I look for ?

Going - always plays a part. I will rarely bet on Heavy or Soft going. If it doesn't say 'GOOD' somewhere in there I usually leave well alone.

Form - the best recent form figures are a good 'guide' to a horses wellbeing, and are a good starting point. The downside is that it is normally factored into the price.

Recent run - most horses will run better with a recent run, it gives them the 'race fitness' as opposed to having just galloped at home. Obviously there are exceptions as some seem to run better when 'fresh'. ** My advice (for what it's worth) is especially during the jumps season, horses that have been off for a year (or longer) will have had some sort of problem. The trainer will regularly have them 'superfit' so as not to break down again, and there can be some nice prices.

Jockeys - the top jockeys seem to always get on the best horses. The downside is that again it is factored into the price. Try and note jockeys who take their chance when it is given... also those who don't to avoid.

Trainers - trainers in form have plenty of winners, keep an eye on trainers coming into and going out of form. I especially look at 'new trainers' as most seem to try and get a win on the board as quickly as possible.

Race types - handicaps or non-handicaps . Personally I rarely bet in selling, claiming, or non-pro jockey races ( Amateur, Apprentice, Lady, Gentleman, etc).

Horse aids - blinkers, cheekpieces, visors .. especially 1st time.

Weight - don't worry about weight in sprints, although in a 3 mile chase  it can have an effect.

There are many more variables to consider, it can become mind boggling. Try to keep it as simple as possible, try not to overthink things. You can find winners in so many different ways. What do I do ? I get the Racing Post and spend an hour or 2 marking the paper with all sorts of information that I think works for me, Different coloured pens, highlighters etc. If you don't have that time, use what works best for you.

 

Good luck with your punting, I hope I haven't muddied the waters. This forum is a good place to improve your punting. Far better to learn from each other than try and go solo.

I would love to hear other peoples thoughts on finding winners.

[gbettle]

I'd like to recommend a, ""Wisdom Of Crowd Market Index" you can find here.

TL;DR: "In sports markets, the probabilities implied by the prices on offer are a proxy for the wisdom of the crowd for that particular event. By adapting Shannon's Entropy formula, we can generate our own."