Great St. Wilfrid Handicap (Saturday)

[The Brigadier]

Bookmakers are betting 10/1 the field for this Saturday's big sprint handicap at Ripon and I believe there's some value lurking there although we'll need to be lucky with the draw.

Even though 63 have declared only 20 can run (there's also a consolation race) with the two form horses that top the betting Mr Wagyu and Music Society 8lb higher than their latest Goodwood efforts so can hardly be called well handicapped. Soul Seeker is the other form horse - he's on a hat trick although maybe better at 5F and needs a few to drop out to make the final 20.

The value bet to my eyes has to be last year's victor STAXTON. He loves this track with form figures at the Yorkshire track of 235111 (the 5th was in this very race two years ago when 2nd of 7 on his side). He won this contest last year when landing a gamble, going off the 4/1 favourite off of a handicap mark of 88 and although 4lb higher now looks primed for a big run. His shrewd connections have probably had this contest in mind for him for awhile and its worth backing now at the 14/1 (Paddy Power/Bet365/ Betfair SB) as I can see him going off shorter come Saturday. He wasn't totally disgraced in 10th last time out in the consolation Stewards Cup on very soft ground which may not have been ideal (he handles most ground though possibly not at his very best on very soft) but his previous 4th in the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton finishing just behind the aforementioned pair Music Society and Mr Wagyu was an excellent effort and meets that duo on 9lb better terms here. The winner of that race incidentally was Commanche Falls who went on to win the Stewards Cup. 

The problem with playing now is two fold - firstly the draw. It seems that high numbers have had the call over the years in this race so we're playing here hoping that the draw is kind and also the place terms as there are only 4 places available where as on the day there's certain to be 5, 6 or even 7 available. I'm happy to play to small stakes now at 14/1 and if things fall into place maybe top up on Thursday when the draw and extra places are known.

 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power / Bet365 / Betfair Sportsbook