Racing Chat - Thursday 22nd July

[Darran]

One of the most frustrating bets I have put up this year was Royal Chant at Worcester 3 weeks ago. I thought he had potential to be well handicapped based on his pointing and hunter chase form and that a wind op could be just what he needed as he had finished weakly in his last two hunter chase at Southwell and Cartmel. He went off 16/1 and was cruising into contention entering the home straight when he was hampered at 4 out and came down. Not only was it frustrating for that bet, but we also didn't find out if the wind op had worked or not. He could just as easily found nothing for pressure as he could have ended up winning the race. I have to back him again in the Worcester opener and although it is a larger field and he is a shorter price, it is still a terrible race he is capable of winning if the op has worked. 

 

Given only 2 of these have won over fences before that does sum up what we are dealing with here. Write It Down is one of those and he ran OK when 3rd last time, but he is hardly one to trust. Freddie Darling makes his debut for Peter Bowen. It is also his chasing debut, but he didn't show much in three handicap hurdles for Harry Fry last season. I'd be wary of him, but at the same time you have to take a bit of a leap of faith to back him. Train Hill is making his chasing debut and ran well enough last time over hurdles which was his best effort in 5 starts over hurdles. Yaazaain ran well enough on his chasing debut 3 weeks ago and that was his first run since April so he would be a danger. The biggest danger could be Ardbruce though. He ran really well at Stratford last time given he made a terrible mistake at 3 out. He fell the time before that, but had been a close 2nd 3 starts back. If he can avoid any costly errors he would be my idea of the winner if Royal Chant didn't do it. 

 

Ultimately though I have to give Royal Chant another chance to prove the wind op has worked and if it has then he will go very close to winning this.

 

Royal Chant e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 (15/2 with them to 4 places other bookies going 4 and 5 places as well)

 

In the 4.35 Go On Chez is back out after his win last week and it looks a superb bit of placing. First of all its a hurdle race so he doesn't have to carry a penalty. Secondly it is an amateur riders race so if he wins he won't have to carry a penalty next time either. He is well in as his hurdle mark has gone up 6lbs and his chasing mark went up 11lbs for that win last week. This is a shockingly weak contest and although his hurdle form was poor last season, he clearly is a much improved horse now. Also the brush hurdles here are like mini point-to-point fences anyway so I don't see that being an issue. Toby Wynne is a decent amateur and he takes off 7lbs so he will only have 9-13 to carry. Obviously he's a much shorter price than last week, but if he is in the same form then he ought to win again.

 

Go On Chez @ 6/4 with everyone except Bet365

[Offramp]

Royal Chant is in the 13:15 at Worcester.  But I will bet on Ardbruce EW at 8/1.