Hunter Chase - 3.30 Cartmel

[Darran]

We finally get to the end of the season and it will be another profitable one as well. I will round that up after today's race, but Monday's race added to the profit as Dressedforsuccess landed our bet and actually ended up winning the race. I did wonder if Gina might be able to not get into a pace battle with Rafferty, but I don't think she had a choice as he is just too free going. He made a bad error at the first and it looked similar to the one he made at Cheltenham, but after that he and Rafferty went some gallop. It is to both their credits that they manged to finish 2nd and 3rd, but it is no surprise that something managed to outstay them both. Jumping the last I did wonder if Dressedforsuccess was going to get 2nd, but then of course you have the 4f run-in and turning for home Rafferty had cried enough. In the end Benefaktor didn't have enough to see the winner off either. I think he was the best horse in the race and take Rafferty out of the race and I suspect he would have won. Even so Dressedforsuccess was very game and kept finding for pressure. I'd try Rafferty in a 2m handicap over the summer at somewhere like Stratford and bid to make all as I do think he can win off 84. Royal Chant found things happening too quickly for him and could never get involved whilst Gold Time proved why I thought she made the market in the betting without market. As for Babytaggle he was probably going backwards at the time he came down, but get him in a handicap off 74 and I would give him a chance. The time was quick as well which just shows the pace they set.

The final race of the season is not a strong one at all. Indeed the 7 horses who are double figures are almost impossible to make a case for. The only one I can is Anteros who likes quick ground and ran OK in a point last time and you would imagine he will come on for that. The 3rd though did nothing for the form at Chaddesley Corbett on Monday and he was firmly on the downgrade when last seen under rules. The jockey is very inexperienced as well having just had 5 races in points and 2 races under rules.

Minella Daddy ran OK up to a point at Ffos Las, but his Wincanton effort was poor. He's hard to want to back on the back of that and his usual tongue-tie has been removed. He is also ridden by an inexperienced jockey who has only had 6 point rides and 1 ride under rules.

Reikers Island has become a hard horse to want to put much trust in and he has just become disappointing. He was awful in the first hunter chase of the season and then went to Dr Newland and finished a 14L 5th off 120 in a Southwell handicap hurdle. The fact he went to the sales after that suggests they didn't think he would build on that and he was sold for £10.5k a couple of weeks ago. He jumped right at Southwell which would be a concern round here although this race is not strong and he is a possible winner.

Ultimately though Looking Well does look the one they have to beat. He has won over this trip on good to firm ground so we know those two boxes are ticked. In the context of this race he ran well enough when 3rd to Alcala at Musselburgh and Paint The Way was in 2nd so they have won 3 hunter chases between them since that race. After that he was 13th at Aintree, but that was as well as could have been expected over a trip too short for him. This is a race which is there for the taking and I was impressed with his jockey on Paint The Way on Sunday at Kelso so the 7lbs he takes off is going to help as well. Hunter chase wise the 3rd at Musselburgh is easily the best form in the race and if he runs up to that then he will be hard to beat.

Looking Well 3pts @ 13/8 with most bookies

Both hunter chase nights have been poor this season from a punting perspective and they both really hit the profit column. As much as I still would have made a loss on Friday even if Capitaine had kept the race it clearly would have covered a lot of it. Quite how you can weigh in 2lbs light I don't know and no one had an explanation for it either. It certainly meant I was a lot more than 2lbs light after the race. He would have won anyway as the strength of his jockey over the new winners jockey meant he would have had the upper-hand even with those 2 missing lbs. It was a really good performance as well. To be fair Creative Inerta backed up his Cheltenham 3rd with another good run. Midnight Cowboy got outpaced as I thought he would and Ecu De La Noverie clearly wasn't fit as he went from travelling well enough to emptying very quickly.

I'm surprised they didn't try and make it more of a test on Virak in the Lady's Final given Deans Road's suspect stamina, but the small field set things up perfectly for the winner. He had got injured at Wincanton earlier in the season so it is also no surprise that he has got better with every run since.

They also didn't make the John Corbett Cup a strongly run race either which was a surprise given Premier Magic was certain to stay whilst we were unknown about Fumet D'odairies stamina. He was coming back at him at the line as well. As it turned out though neither had a response to the Irish winner Vaucelet. For one so inexperienced I thought it was a very good performance and I think he was certainly the best horse in the race. It will be fascinating to see how he progresses next season, but he might just turn out to be a Foxhunter horse. Captain McGinley backed up my thinking that the Cheltenham race fell to pieces and he was a shocking price in the end. Wick Green ran his 2nd poor race.

If Law Of Gold is a better horse than Bob And Co then I may as well give up now, but as we have seen in this race before the best horse doesn't always win and the one aimed for it can often come out on top especially if they have proven themselves at the venue. Law Of Gold had all that in his favour and he saw it out better than the 2nd. Given he is only 8 I would imagine they will skip Cheltenham next year and just focus his season around a repeat bid and if it comes up good ground again he might just well do it. I don't think Maxwell did too much wrong on Bob And Co and I suspect he has probably just had enough for the season on the back of the Punchestown effort. I also wonder if the track didn't really suit him either. Even though he is 11 next year I am sure he will be one of the leading candidates for Cheltenham glory. Monbeg Chit Chat backed up his Cheltenham win with a good effort for 3rd. Connections might just regret not going to Kelso on Sunday with him though as he would have won that and collected more prize money in doing so. Adrien Du Point just didn't stay and Captain Cattistock was outclassed.

As much as I don't think Maxwell could do much more on his first two rides his ride on Monsieur Gibraltar was just plain stupid as was Natalie Parker's on Alcala. Quite why they went so hard I don't know, but the fact they were in front entering the straight and were then beaten 20 and 25 lengths shows you how tired they got. The fact Bletchley Castle could make the running also told you all you need to know. So with the pace being crazy it set it up for the ones who stay well and thus you end up with Keltus winning and Zamparelli finishing 2nd. It was so frustrating that Zamparelli couldn't quite get there in time. He was outpaced for most of the way, but leaving the back straight you could tell he was staying on well and that he was still a contender. The fact Keltus was able to not get quite as far behind has made the difference in the end. Hard to know if Clondaw Westie would have won, but he gave his jockey no chance at the last. His trainer said after the race that he did that because he was tired so maybe he would have found it hard to see off the winner. Even so he ran another good race on the back of his Aintree and Cheltenham efforts.

The Restricted Final looks every bit as weak after the race as it did before the race. The Bonny Boy was able to reverse form with the 2 that had beaten him the last twice and that sums the race up. Pillowman jumped very badly which cost him any chance he had sadly. Any of this will need a weak hunter chase to win one in my view.

I should probably stop betting in the bumper on this card. In 2018 and 2019 my main fancy slipped up on the bend leading into the back straight and this year Hope Des Blins saddle slipped and she was basically pulled up. Darren Andrews stole this race on Fountains Chief for me. He made all at a slow pace and was able to dictate things as he wanted. Gina on the other-hand held up Latenightfumble at the back and he just didn't have the speed to get near the winner. It was a big step up on his Exeter run by the winner and I just wonder if he will be able to back this up given the way he stole the race. The race though summed up how the night went.

[Darran]

Disappointing end to the season with Looking Well never really threatening to win the race as Reikers Island basically made all to score easily. This is weak form and the handicapper should drop him from 124, but I am sure he wont. It was well purchased by the owner/rider anyway as it gave him a first win under rules and he seemed to really enjoy himself. O'Grady's Boy ran really well to finish 2nd, but no doubt the handicapper will hammer him for beating a 124 rated horse by 15L and getting within 13L of another one. If they are going to go summer jumping with him then it was a daft thing to do to run him in this as I reckon he will go up to around 110. For example on Thursday Blackjacktennesse runs off 95 at Ffos Las having gone up 27lbs for finishing 2nd to Right Of Reply at Chepstow. That form has been shown to be weak and as much as I think the handicapper could have risen him a little to put him up to within a lbs of his highest ever mark is crazy. We are talking about a horse who has never won a race as well. Maybe he will win tomorrow and the trainer switch is a plus, but it is proof that the handicapper struggles to handicap horse from hunter chases and that often he goes too highly.

So we get to the end of the season where my final totals were 161pts staked 172.8pts returned for 11.8pt profit. Obviously any profit is great, but I am disappointed it wasn't more and in some ways it should have been. I have only included 1pt @ 7/2 on Wick Green for example as I suggested cashing out the original e/w bet when the race went down to 4 runners, but those who stuck with the original bet would have ended up with 4pts @ 11/2! That clearly would have made a big difference to the profits. As I mentioned above both hunter chase nights were horrid from a betting point of view especially the blank at Stratford. With 14 races across those two meetings if I have a bad one at both then it is always going to hurt. We did lose some races to the weather, but there were only 68 hunter chases run this year plus the 3 point-to-point bumpers. Given we had a divided race, plus two tracks added hunter chases that is a worryingly low figure. Fontwell axed their hunter chase night, Taunton went from 3 to 0 for some reason, Perth axed 1 and there were others missing as well. Hopefully we don't get another drop next season. I guess we should be thankful we had a full season unlike last year and pro jockey's was a bit of a novelty for the first couple of months which hopefully wont be needed to repeated. 

Hopefully you have found the previews enjoyable and helpful. As I always say the recommended bets are only part of it and I know people come up with their own way of attacking races based on what I say. That is one of the reasons I write the previews and cover most horses throughout the season.

I'd imagine we will see horses go handicapping over the summer and although I didn't have a great deal of luck on that front last year, usually that is a big source of profit so hopefully we see a few well handicapped horses racing over the summer.