Hunter Chase 4.45 Cartmel

[Darran]

After putting up Dark Mahler up I was shocked to see him backed into favouritism at one stage because as I said in the preview Point The Way was certainly they right favourite even if I thought his price was on the sort side. As it turned out he was the strongest stayer in the race and didn't even race lazily as he usually does so it was a pretty easy watch for his backers. Apparently it was the 5th biggest prize money for a hunter chase this season which is great for the northern pointers to go for a big pot, but it was a pretty weak contest for the money. Nine Altars was 2nd again in the contest and he threatened to cart of with his jockey at one stage. To his credit he kept going well enough despite that mid race move. Rattle The Cage was up there, then got outpaced and then stayed on to just get 3rd from Dark Mahler. He was ridden to stay and didn't.

So we are left with just 2 hunter chases at Cartmel to end the season. This is always one of the weaker races of the season and amazingly in the last 9 runnings there has been no winning favourite. Really that ought to change this afternoon because Benefaktor has a fair bit in hand on all known form. I put him up at Cheltenham on the back of a very impressive performance at Revesby on his seasonal return, but after setting a decent pace he failed to stay. He went to Edgcote after that and was made to work very hard by Luke Harvey's Drumlynn to win over today's trip (the official margin was a head, but the pointing formbook reckons it was a dead heat and it did look too close to call for me as well). There are two concerns for me. The first is he had a very hard race that day so it might have left a mark and the 2nd is there could be a fair bit of pace in this contest which might not be ideal either. Still you have the best jockey in the race and you would imagine she will be sensible enough out in front.

To me Gold Time looks a bit short in the betting. She wasn't anything special last season and was pretty exposed in Ireland. This season she unseated in her first two starts the first of which she would have been a well beaten 4th behind Dressedforsuccess. That has to be a concern going under rules for the first time and Cartmel is a tough jumping track. The price is based on the face she has won her last two, beating Teescomponents Boy by a length in what was a decent time and then winning in a pretty slow time at Hexham a couple of weeks ago. She wouldn't be for me.

Given what I have just written it is no surprise that the 25/1 about Dressedforsuccess was taken as he would have beaten her quite comfortably if she had not unseated at the last. That was on good to firm ground so conditions should be ideal and I suspect it was too soft for him at Catterick back in March when he pulled up. The concern is he was a well beaten 5th in this race 2 years ago where he never got involved, but on quicker ground he can do better.

I'm a bit more surprised that Teescomponents Boy has been backed as the 2nd to Gold Time stands and with Immy's claim he is 5lbs better off here. He also ran terribly 8 days ago at Garthorpe and he wouldn't be for me.

Royal Chant weakened very quickly last week at Southwell and the jockey reported that he had stopped very quickly. This is a poorer race over a shorter trip so that might help him here. His best performance of the season was when beating Absainte in April on quick ground over 2m6f. To me he would have more ability than most of these.

Rafferty went off a million miles an hour in the 2m race at Cheltenham and not surprisingly fell in a hole. If he does the same here then he has no chance and I suspect if he did Gina would let him get on with it on the favourite rather than try and keep tabs with him. He bolted up in a maiden over 2m4f on his point debut in April which was his first run for 2 years. I find it hard to fancy him on the back of the Cheltenham effort.

Sliecegar gave his jockey his first winner at Hornby Castle in April and he made all that day after not getting involved at Dingley 5 days before. He was then pulled up in a restricted at Garthorpe when he looked to down tools once he was headed. If he has to lead then he has little chance of doing that for me here and even if he does I can't see him being good enough to stay there.

One For Martha and Some Ambition have no chance and that leaves us with Babytaggle. He led for a bit on Friday, but then just couldn't go the pace over a sharp 2m which was one of my concerns. He's a massive price again on that Huntingdon run especially in this poorer race. The concern though is he is going to struggle to lead again, but then you are getting 100/1 to find out.

I think the best way to play is by taking the favourite out of the equation given I don't fancy Gold Time who becomes a short price favourite in the betting without market. I will back Dressedforsuccess and Royal Chant plus a very small cover of Babytaggle.

Dressedforsuccess 1pt in the betting without fav market @ 4/1 with Bet365

Royal Chant 1pt in the betting without fav market @ 13/2 with Bet365

Babytaggle 0.25pts e/w in the betting without fav market @ 50/1 with Bet365

[Darran]

Just to say I got the prices the wrong way round on Dressedforsuccess and Royal Chant.