Hunter Chase - Stratford

[Darran]

Not quite the final day of the season as we have 3 more hunter chases after today, but despite the lack of runners we still have a very interesting card at Stratford tonight. Here are my thoughts on every runner and hopefully we can come out the other end in front.

5.10

Argot - His hunter chase win came over 2m in heavy ground back in 2018, but he does handle quicker surfaces as well. Although he has won over 3m in points he is better over a shorter trip so this test should suit. He pulled up at Fakenham in February although that was his first start since May 2019. After that he has won two points over 2m4f and 3m. The problem is neither race was strong. The horse he beat at Shelford Park has run poorly twice since and he was lucky to win last time as the 2nd threw the race away. He could go well though, but it has to be a worry that he pulled up in this in 2018 and that has been his worse hunter chase run.

Babytaggle - In theory a horse rated 74 and he was stuffed in a restricted two starts back shouldn't have a hope in hell of winning this and that might turn out to be true, but if he can repeat his run from last week he is a player in this for me. On the face of it he was beaten 41L in 5th at 125/1 at Huntingdon, but it was a much better run than that suggests. He made the running along with the winner Green Winter and he was bang in contention until just before they turned for home. Now that was against horses who are more stayers than speed horses who he will face here, but if he can repeat those front running tactics again here and put in a similar performance I think he can at the very least out run his odds and possibly even more.

Bandsman - He has had 3 runs in points for new connections over the last month or so and he's been running as if a drop in trip would suit, but we are also talking about a horse who was just denied in a Summer Cup over 3m2f. He certainly wouldn't be a surprise winner as at least the form of those races is fairly strong.

Capitaine - I feel he has been getting better with each start and he hasn't been seeing the trip over 2m4f in hunter chases or points. He was bang in contention at Ludlow in March until about 2 out in a race won by Garde Ville and then earlier this month he was beaten by Rio Bravo, but again didn't give way until late on. That was a good effort for me and he could be suited by this test.

Creative Inerta - It was a really weak hunter chase he won at Exeter 2 years ago, but I don't think he's out of this. He's actually only run 3 times since then. The following year he ran well finishing just behind Risk A Fine when Monsieur Gibraltar won at Wincanton. He was pulled up at Barbury in December and then was a good 3rd at Cheltenham behind Fumet D'oudairies. If he can build on that then he's not out of this.

Ecu De La Noverie - The first Maxwell horse of the night and one who looks set to be the shortest price. I am more than happy to take him on though. Yes he won off 132 at Wetherby in November 2019 and I doubt any of these could manage that and he's not run all that badly in 3 runs since. He's not run since October though though and we then add his jockey into the mix. It will be interesting to see how he's ridden because he's been held up and has made the running. Given Maxwell can't get his tactics right this season I wonder if he will try and keep things simple again and attempt to make all, but I can't be certain. Obviously he can win, but I am happy enough to look elsewhere.

Graasten - Another who has been running as if he wants this trip, but he was also 15L behind Capitaine 2 starts back at Mollington and it's hard to see him reversing that form for me.

Midnight Cowboy - Was pulled up behind Newsworthy on his seasonal return, just behind him at High Easter and then beat him at Kingston Blount when winning last time. The concern for me is he found himself outpaced that day so the drop to 2m wouldn't be an obvious move and 2015 was the last time he tried this sort of trip.

Dissertation - Looks to be outclassed here.

Verdict - Ecu De La Noverie could win this, but there are creditable rivals so I will look to get him beat. Capitaine is the main play e/w as he seems to be getting fitter with every run and looks like a drop down to this trip will suit. Yes he should have no chance on ratings, but I can't let Babytaggle go unbacked at a massive price because that Huntingdon run was full of promise and if he can repeat that here then he can at the very least outrun those odds.

Capitaine 1pt e/w @ 17/2 with Bet365

Babytaggle 0.25pts e/w @ 100/1 with Bet365 (everyone else is 40/1 so will record at those odds)

5.45

Virak - Was 2nd in this a couple of years ago coming on the back of a busy season, but it was still a really good run as the winner was in very good form at the time. Ran 3 times last season and won them all including beating Southfield Theatre and a devastating 27L defeat of Earth Leader at Wincanton. This season he didn't reappear until this month at Cothelstone and he ran out a very easy 12L winner over Shometheway. That should put him spot on for this and I think he will be hard to beat.

Barney Dwan - He was very game when winning at Edgcote, but it looked very hard work. He was a fair 4th at Cheltenham behind Marcle Ridge, but he found himself outpaced that night and I just wonder if he might find this test sharp enough especially given his last win prior to the Edgcote won was over 3m4f.

Deans Road - All out to beat Back Bar at Kingston Blount and he was carrying 3lbs less so doesn't even come out as the best horse in the race. That was 3m and his two previous point runs were both over 2m4f so I do think this trip will suit him better. He was a 7L 2nd to Envoye Special and then won at Chaddesley Corbett although I don't think it was an overly strong contest and none of his runs are good enough to beat an on song Virak in my view.

Merrion Avenue - Has won a couple of points this season including at Hexham last time, but has pulled up in both hunter chases and he looks an unlikely winner.

Verdict - It has to be Virak for me as he looks to have everything in his favour. I think this sort of trip is his best and he comes here a fresh horse unlike in 2019 when he was 2nd. This looks a weaker renewal to me as well and the win earlier in the month showed that he retains all of his ability. Possibly his main danger would be Deans Road as he at least looks like he wants this sort of trip as I think Barney Dwan and wants further. With the two non-runners I suspect it will get tactical and it also means Virak is now odds on. I had made him the best bet of the night but will stick him in a double with something else on the card now.

6.20

Captain McGinley - Bolted up at Cheltenham in the same race he had been a close 2nd to Latenightpass in 2019. Usually he wouldn't have been able to have run in that race again, but clearly Cheltenham over 3m2f suits him well. I thought that race fell apart though because for me he was the only horse who really stayed and I suspect it wasn't a very strong contest. He has 21L to make up on Fumet D'oudairies based on the Leicester race he was 5th although that was over 2m4f so they have a mile further to go here. Even so I would be surprised if he did reverse that form.

Fumet D'oudairies - Was a very cheap buy and has done amazingly well for connections. He's 2/2 in hunter chases having bolted up at Leicester beating I'm Wiser Now by 6L and then winning comfortably at Cheltenham over 2m last time. He had been entered in the first race here and I know connections were tossing up between which race to go for as he is unproven over this far. Usually you would be concerned about a horse being capable of winning over 2m then winning over 3m4f on his next race, but his point wins over 3m suggest he has a decent chance of staying the trip. I also think if he is ever going to stay this far it will be here and there doesn't look like there will be a huge amount of pace in the race. I think connections were right to have a go at a prize like this and if he stays he will be bang there.

I'm Wiser Now - Clearly likes Stratford having won twice here in March and April and I certainly think the way he needs to be ridden suits this track as he can be delivered late and there is a short run in. He didn't enjoy Cheltenham at all last month when finishing 3rd in what wasn't a strong contest and he was behind both Fumet D'oudairies and Premier Magic at Leicester in March and February. If this was over 2m6f I would have given him a chance given his course form, but I think this trip will be too far for him.

Premier Magic - Has done nothing but improve all season having started out by beating Wishing And Hoping by 7L at Chaddesley Corbett in December. After that he won at Leicester although I thought it was his least impressive performance of the season. I do think though the very testing ground as well as the shorter trip were against him that day and he looks every inch a stayer. Something he backed up when winning the Lady Dudley Cup back at Chaddesley Corbett beating Ennistown by 12L which I think is a strong piece of form. I think he looks the one they have to beat.

Vaucelet - We usually see an Irish challenger for this and they took the cup back to Ireland in 2015 and 2016. He has only had 4 starts so is very much a dark horse coming into this. He showed a bit of promise in two maiden hurdles last season and then run in a maiden point in October where he was beaten a head by Brayhill who recorded a RPR of 116 when winning a maiden hurdle at Carlisle. He then wasn't seen until earlier this month when winning a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal in decent enough style. The 2nd was 50/1 that day, but has bolted up in a point since. The others fairly close up haven't done much for the form though. I don't know too much about his jockey and he can't use his 7lbs claim in this contest, but he did win on his only start in the UK when just getting Some Neck up to win the cross-country race at Cheltenham's December meeting last year. He looked tidy enough that day as well as at Down Royal so although he can't claim he certainly isn't a negative. He's obviously unexposed and it's hard to weigh up the form, but as much as connections wouldn't be bringing him over for the sake of it, especially with Covid, my feeling is he will have to improve again to beat Premier Magic or Fumet D'oudairies.

Wick Green - Fancied him at Cheltenham and he ran a complete stinker! That was surely too bad to be true and as much as his Chameron jumped poorly at Exeter he still won well enough and his pointing form last year suggests he is useful. It will annoy me if he does bounce back to win this after the Cheltenham effort and I am certainly prepared to forgive him it, but I think he has a bit too find with Premier Magic and Fumet D'oudairies.

Verdict - I was amazed that Fumet D'oudairies was put in as odds on favourite for this and for me the bookies got it badly wrong. Clearly he can win, but I would have Premier Magic as favourite and it was no surprise to see him being backed after being put in way too big. There are no question marks with him whereas there is with his two main rivals so he is certainly the selection.

Premier Magic 3pts @ 9/4 with Bet365

6.55

Adrien Du Pont - I had wondered where they were going to go with this horse because my thinking was he would find this trip too far for him, but with the make up of the field I think he can go close. He hasn't come out of 2nd gear in his two hunter chase wins so far and beating Envoye Special by 17L gives us a bit of a guide to the fact that he is still capable of putting in performances worthy of his mark of 140. If he sees out of the trip then he has a big chance.

Bishops Road - Struggled badly in both hunter chases so far this season and it would be surprising if he didn't again here.

Bob And Co - The best hunter chaser around and has provided David with 2 of his 3 wins since he returned after injury. He was very game in the finish at Punchestown to get his nose on the line when it mattered and apart from a couple of mistakes he jumped well on the whole. There is a slight stamina concern, but I don't think it will be an issue round here. It's been a month since Punchestown and I don't think it will have bottomed him especially as he probably felt he had barley had a race at Hexham the week before. Obviously his jockey's form is a worry, but as he showed at Punchestown he is good enough to get him out of trouble and if he runs up to his best then I would be surprised if he wasn't too good for these.

Captain Cattistock - Given how he has been ridden the last twice he looks like he will be the pace angle in the contest. He has ground to make up with Law Of Gold on their Doncaster running, but that was by some way his worst run of the season so I think he will go better here. We know he stays, but I think the fact he was beaten last week at Sugar Baron shows he isn't going to be up to beating the best of these here unless they under perform.

Law Of Gold - It didn't happen for him at Cheltenham this year after making a mistake at the water, but the 7th last year was a decent effort. He got his confidence back by winning a point at Garthorpe and then he took full advantage of Shantou Flyer setting the race up for him at Fontwell. He also didn't run up to his best that day and to win this I think he will need Adrien Du Pont and especially Bob And Co to under perform. What I will say though is that we see course specialists at Stratford and the fact he won the John Corbett Cup in 2019 is a big plus for his chances. 

Monbeg Chit Chat - I didn't think the Cheltenham race he won last month was up to much, but the fact Sugar Baron beat Captain Cattistock last week Warwick suggests that I need to upgrade the form. He followed up that Cheltenham success by bolting up at 1/4 at Hexham's point-to-point track a couple of weeks ago. I think he deserves to take his chance, but he clearly does need to find a fair bit to beat some of these.

Sam Red - Seems to love the 4m race at Cheltenham as he was placed again last month finishing 2nd to Captain Cattistock. He was 36L behind Adrien Du Pont at Newbury and pulled up behind Bob And Co at Haydock and it would be surprising if he got any closer here to be honest.

Verdict - We do sometimes see the best horse in the race on paper not win this and Law Of Gold would be the one to take advantage to the Nicholls pair did under perform. Indeed I can't really understand why he was 5th favourite and 20/1 when Bet365 priced up. Not surprisingly he has found his correct position in the market. It would be a great result for pointing as well if he were to win, but the fact his pointing rating is 125, Adrien Du Pont's is 139 and Bob And Co's is 150 shows how much ground he needs to make up and how much he needs them to not be at their best. I said to myself the other day that Bob And Co is the only horse I can back with David Maxwell on top at the moment and so I am going to make him the pick because he is the best horse in the race and hopefully he can get him out of trouble even if he doesn't get the best of rides. The chances are though that Nicholls will win it as I think Adrien Du Pont is the biggest danger.

Bob And Co 3pts @ 5/4 with William Hill

7.30

Alcala - Alcala tops the weights for the only handicap hunter chase of the season. He was out stayed at Musselburgh on his seasonal return by Salvatore, but was able to comfortably beat a weaker field a month later over the same course and distance. He then went to Ascot and beat Tanit River, but he was exactly impressive in doing so and raced very lazily. I am guessing that is why cheekpieces go on for the first time. If they don't work though then there is certainly a chink in his armour and as much as he could win I do think he is a skinny price in what looks to me a competitive handicap.

Monsieur Gibraltar - Been such a great servant over the years and I had backed him off 138 in a handicap at Uttoxeter back in the summer only for him to be a non runner. The problem is he was pretty disappointing in his only start since at Fakenham when emptying very quickly. That form is not good enough to win this, but then any other of his runs in the last couple of years would make him well handicapped off 130. He ran poorly on over watered ground at this meeting in 2018 and should do better on this quicker surface although it is still a concern. The jockey is also a concern, but like I say if he bounces back to his previous form here then he would look a cracking price.

Clondaw Westie - Was miles behind Alcala at Musselburgh and wouldn't have a hope of beating him even at these weights on that form, but his last two runs have been superb. First off he was 4th in the Aintree Foxhunters and then finished 2nd in a hot race at Cheltenham. I say a hot race because that's what it looked like on paper before the race and it looked a hot race in practice both visually and on the clock. The problem is the winner Marcle Ridge and the 3rd Peacock Secret have run terribly in their next runs. My theory is perhaps that race has left a mark on them because it was strongly run and after Aintree as well you do wonder if he might how he might run here. If he can carry his form into this though then he should go well.

Zamparelli - Speaking of that Cheltenham race Zamparelli also ran in it but he fell at the 6th and that may well help him here. His hold up style isn't necessarily the best tactic to use round here, but we know he is going to get a strong pace to work at with Bletchley Castle in the race. Bletchley Castle set the race up for him nicely at Ludlow and he came through really strongly to win going away. There was 7L between them that day with Zamparelli carrying 3lbs less and today he is carrying 4lbs more so on that they should dead heat. In my view though the winner was value for more than the winning margin and this slightly further trip looks set to suit him more than Bletchley Castle. He was improving with every start before the fall and he has a good chance here.

Keltus - He might have beaten Shantou Flyer at Wincanton even if that one hadn't unseated David, but he didn't run as well behind him at Fontwell last time. In between he ran OK in the 4m race at Cheltenham where he just didn't stay. The problem here is that this trip especially round here is likely to be sharp enough for him.

Bletchley Castle - As mentioned above he will make the running, but as much as he was 2nd over 3m at Ludlow 2 starts back there were only 4 runners so he was able to see the trip out better. 2m5f round here ought to be OK, but I'd be a bit surprised if he reversed form with Zamparelli. He was also stuffed at 4/6 at Tabley a couple of weeks ago where he didn't stay again that though was his worst run of the season for me though. He was very strong in the market last night which surprised me as I think he will find at least 1 or 2 too good late on and I think he will just set the race up for the others.

Crazy Jack - Won this in 2018, but stuffed in 2019 and likely to be the same story in 2021.

Verdict - We can cross off Crazy Jack and Keltus straight away. Bletchley Castle looks short enough for me especially on the back of the Tabley effort. Alcala can win, but this is competitive enough and I think the bookies have forgotten it is a handicap rather than a normal hunter chase. Zamparelli is the one I like the most as I think Bletchley Castle will set the race up nicely for him to come through with a late run. Yes I am concerned what the 1st and 3rd have done from the Cheltenham race and that Clondaw Westie has also done Aintree, but if he can run up to those two efforts then he will go close so I want him onside. I also want some coverage on Monsieur Gibraltar. He wins this on his 2019 form and given you can always forgive a horse a poor run I will give him a chance to bounce back from the Fakenham run.

Zamparelli 1pt @ 11/2 with everyone

Clondaw Westie 0.5pts @ 11/2 with Bet365

Monsieur Gibraltar 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365

 

8.05

Bold Gesture - Been kept to shorter trips and the one time he ran over 3m there was only 4 runners so it wouldn't have been much of a test. Suspect he found the ground too testing when he pulled up at Edgcote and that won't be a problem here. He won well the time before and did clock a slightly faster time than Argot on the card. The main concern is he does make mistakes which is what he did at Leicester on his only start over fences under rules.

Fiddler Of Dooney - He took plenty of riding to win at High Easter when just beating The Bonny Boy and his jumping didn't always help either. That was his first run for over a year though so there should be more to come from him. Also worth pointing out that Latenightfumble was back in 3rd although I suspect she didn't stay. He does tend to need plenty of stoking up, but he does seem to find plenty for pressure which is always good to see.

Gats And Co - Won well at Holnicote last time as he did when going back pointing in March when losing his maiden tag at Maisemore. It was 2m4f he won over last time so this trip should suit and there does seem to be a little depth to his form. The concern is that he hasn't really clocked a quick time yet, but has claims.

Pillowman - Won his maiden in March 2018 and then pulled up in a restricted the following month. He then didn't run until February last year when pulling up again. Just over a year later and he unseated at the 4th at Revesby, but things have been going much better since then as he has won both times. Thought he was impressive when landing his restricted last month and he made slightly harder work of it last time, but I think he was probably further back than ideal that day. The two winning times were decent and he looks progressive.

Tekap - He was all out to win at Kingston Blount when having a right old battle with The Bonny Boy with a neck between them at the line. His maiden win last February was in a decent time and after struggling in 2018 he seems to be improving now.

The Bonny Boy - Obviously has to reverse from with Fiddler Of Dooney and Tekap, but it wasn't as if he was a long way behind so you couldn't completely rule it out.

Verdict - This is a pretty weak renewal and there certainly doesn't seem to be a stand out candidate. I must admit I would have liked a bigger price, but I think Pillowman is the right favourite and I make him the selection. He looks progressive and from a times perspective he comes out as the most likely winner. This trip wont be an issue having won over 3m and 2m4f and good ground is perfect. I like the way Fiddler Of Dooney finds plenty for pressure and that could be enough to see him being the main danger from Gats And Co, but in truth anyone of the 6 winning wouldn't be a total surprise.

Pillowman 1pt @ 2/1 with Betfred & William Hill

Fiddler Of Dooney 0.5pts @ 8/1 with everyone

8.40

I am going to write this slightly differently because all of these horses tie in with each other. We have the winner of the Exeter version of this type of race Rose Above It who did it nicely enough. Fountains Chief was back in 3rd and he does get a 12lbs pull in the weights and was beaten just under 12L so theatrically there shouldn't be much between them. 2nd that day was Crews Pitch who beat Granny Mags 5L at Revesby so it is hard to see her winning. Crews Pitch then ran in the Aintree version of this type of race and was 32L behind Latenightfumble. That Aintree race was much stronger than the Exeter one and I just don't see how any of those 3 can possibly beat Latenightfumble if she runs to anywhere near the same level. The other runner is Hope Des Blins and she was a well beaten 3rd, albeit eased heavily and should have finished 2nd, behind Latenightfumble on debut at Dingley. She then went to Cothelstone and unseated at the 11th. She made the running on both occasions and I actually think she will be much better suited to a bumper. She can finish much closer to Latenightfumble although I would be a little surprised were she to beat him. What I do think will happen is she will finish 2nd to the favourite and I would have her 2nd in the betting. Therefore she is worth backing in the betting without market.

Latenightfumble to beat Hope Des Blins 1pt f/c

Hope Des Blins without the fav 2pts @ 100/30 with Betfair (will be up on Bet365 soon as well)

I will put Virak and Latenightfumble in a double given they are both odds on.

Virak/Latenightfumble 2pts double @ 3.15/1 with Bet365