Hunter Chase - 7.55 Huntingdon

[Darran]

A quick look back at Aintree's bumper on Friday and it was good to have the winner in Latitude although I have to say I think we got away with one as the 2nd was the best horse in the race. I think either side of the line and Foxinthebox would have won, but thankfully for us Latitude had his nose down where it mattered. To be fair to the winner he looks a promising horse and I can see him building on the promise he has shown so far next season, but he clearly knew his job unlike the 2nd. Foxinthebox had jumped terribly on his debut and then on Friday he was very green, but once the penny dropped he stayed on strongly to only just be denied. He looks a stayer in the making and has clearly got more learning to do, but he is one to keep a close eye in the future. Latenightrumble ran well in 3rd and they were miles clear of the other 3 which is why I think the form could be pretty strong.

 

Back to hunter chase action this evening with Huntingdon hosting their only one of the season and we have another Maxwell odds on favourite in the shape of Dolphin Square. I tried taking him on at Kelso, but he was much better than Right Of Reply at the line and as much as that one slowed right down I just can't see how Right Of Reply can reverse the form. I think Dolphin Square will improve for a bigger field and a longer trip and I find it hard to see him being beaten.

 

If there is one to beat him it is likely to be Tullys Touch who hacked up at Fakenham last time. He also goes up against the horse he beat last time as Laser Beam goes here, but again I just don't see the form being reversed. Tullys Touch had loads in hand at the line and he had beaten him at High Easter last month as well. He is probably still progressive and given how easy he won at Fakenham it is hard to know exactly how good he is, but he needs to find a lot for me to beat Dolphin Square. The handicapper gave him a mark of 105 after that win and to be honest that seems fair enough at the moment. I think he can finish 2nd to the favourite as he is open to a bit more improvement than Right Of Reply.

 

What really interests me though is the betting without the front two market as I like Green Winter. Laser Beam looked very one paced at High Easter and Fakenham behind Tullys Touch so he is opposable. Tangoed ran really well in her only hunter chase to date at Stratford 2 years ago. She was a close 3rd to Earth Leader which was a top effort, but then in December the same year she finished 35L behind him at Larkhill. She wasn't seen again until Kimble in November where she pulled up behind Porlock Bay. She was then off until April where she was a well beaten 7th 6 days before winning at Aldington. It was a big victory, but it was a weak race so I'm not sure she is as good as that Stratford run suggested she could be.

 

With Spanish Fleet and Babytaggle both looking like they will be outclassed that leaves us with Green Winter. He has only run in two hunter chases despite the fact he is 13 and they were in two renewals of the John Corbett Cup where he pulled up both times. He is a classy pointer though as he has shown over the years. Last year he finished a close 2nd to Shantou Flyer at Larkhill and was then 2nd to Chameron in the Coronation Gold Cup at the same venue. He wasn't seen again until 2 weeks ago when he was an 8L 2nd at Mollington, but the winner that day was landing a hat-trick so the form looks solid to me especially as he pulled well clear of the 3rd. He should come on for that and I think he only has Right Of Reply to beat in this market and I think he has a decent chance of doing so. Annoyingly he has been backed in the outright market so he is now favourite in the betting without the front two market, but I think there is still value in his price.

 

Dolphin Square to beat Tullys Touch 1pt fc

Dolphin Square to beat Green Winter 0.5pts fc

Green Winter betting without front 2 1.5pts @ 15/8 with Betfair

 

[DeeRobster]

Typically, the RPR #1 wins this race 45% of the time and places 54% of the time as per the spreadsheet.

Interestingly, top speed #3 is the biggest profit margin on each way terms and on my own speed ratings that falls with Tully's Touch.

I ran this race through my speadsheets and LTO I have Dolphin Square at 117 and Tully's Touch at 91.4, though the speed forecast for today based on my stats is 40 for Dolphin Square and 38.4 for Tully's Touch, this looks rather close to me for todays race. If Tully's Touch was a wider price I would have taken it E/W, but the price ain't right for me on E/W terms.

I think Tully is more progressive and my forecast is very cloe between these two, and because I'm not being offered good e/w terms, I have taken Tully to win.