In Play Odds Calculator/Model

[Silence Is Golden]

Hi all,

 

I've been betting on football exclusively in play for a while and wondered if there was an app or an online reference that I could use to help me find the "correct" odds in play?

 

Basically what I'm trying to work out is that if a team is 1.3 pre match, what odds should they be when still 0-0 after 60 mins? 

 

Also how do the other markets link in with the match odds? Over 1.5 etc if there is a goal at another point.

 

I don't know if there is an app or a calculation or something someone could help with or even somewhere for me to get data to analyse.

 

Thanks

 

 

[froment]

Back in the day, there was a site WhatIfOdds, which did exactly what you described; it had boxes for each minute of the match, and shown change of odds throughout the match; you tick the minute box when a goal is scored, and it gives you updated odds after that goal. Beautiful site, that unfortunatelly went down, and I have not seen anything similar ever since.

In absence of the app, the best solution I can think about is to monitor "adjacent" market; let me explain it for goal lines, it is easier.

Let's say result is 0-0, and odds are as follows:

• Over 0.5 goals 1.10
• Over 1.5 goals 1.40
• Over 2.5 goals 1.90
• Over 3.5 goals 2.90

If a goal is scored at that moment, all odds will be "shifted" to the next line, i.e:

• Over 0.5 goals closed
• Over 1.5 goals 1.10
• Over 2.5 goals 1.40
• Over 3.5 goals 1.90
• Over 4.5 goals 2.90

Of course, not exactly the same odds, but add or take a couple of ticks, that would be it. The same applies to Unders.

For match result, Home/Draw/Away, you monitor European Handicap line (3-way handicap). Let's say:

1X2 market

• Home win 1.80
• Draw 3.60
• Away win 4.50

European handicap market, home team -1

• Home win 3.00
• Draw 3.80
• Away win 2.10

European handicap market, home team +1

• Home win 1.25
• Draw 6.00
• Away win 10.00

Now, if home team scores a goal, 1x2 odds will become

• Home win 1.25
• Draw 6.00
• Away win 10.00

If away team scores a goal, 1x2 odds will become

• Home win 3.00
• Draw 3.80 (you see these odds barely changed compared to before goal, they can be even lower - if you ever traded Lay The Draw strategy, you are certainly familiar with "underdog scores first" bomb, duh...)
• Away win 2.10

For next goal, you observe EH+2 or EH-2 markets, and so on... Similar for AH markets.

The site I mentioned above, WhatIfOdds, also had ability to include red card impact; I'm not sure how you could evaluate change of odds after red card; certainly not this way.