Racing Chat - Sunday February 21st

[The Brigadier]

Thankfully Newbury’s abandoned card from last Saturday has been saved and from what would of been a rather mundane Sunday afternoon’s racing is now a real treat for us racing fans.

The ground is officially good to soft (soft in places) with a dry day there today but with the possibility of showers through the night I think it’s pretty safe to look at the card as soft ground.

 

115 2m 69yds Novice Hurdle

 

A well contested novice hurdle to start proceedings which has attracted some potentially nice horses. Paul Nicholl’s Good Ball hasn’t been seen since the end of December when making his British debut and winning over course and distance. The runner up that day pulled up next time out though the 4th and 5th have both won since. Overall I would say it’s decent form although he does have to carry a 6lb penalty and perhaps more worrying is the fact that he is having his tongue tied down. He sets the standard though.

Nicky Henderson saddles his smart mare Ahorsewithnoname who ran a stormer in a listed mares only contest back in November here to finish runner up to Pink Sheets. She can claim the invaluable 7lb mares allowance and has a Mares Novice Hurdle entry at Cheltenham for which she is currently 33/1. 

Gowel House was back in 4th behind Good Ball in December and has gone on to win a handicap hurdle over course and distance. He’s progressive but has a 6lb penalty here and has a bit to find with Good Ball.

The most intriguing runner to my eyes is Hoi Polloi, an impressive Kempton bumper winner before a slightly disappointing hurdling debut at Hereford when only second beaten 5 1/2 lengths to a Gordon Elliott challenger who’s been beaten since. I’m sure he’s better than that (he was the chosen work companion with the trainers stable star Paisley Park at Newbury’s pre Ladbroke Trophy gallops day) and with Emma Lavelle in such good form with her last 8 runners finishing 13329111 he could be the each way bet here.

 

HOI POLLOI 1 point each way 

 

150 3m Handicap Hurdle

 

A competitive long distance handicap with plenty in with a chance. The one I like here though is the Paul Nicholls trained Southfield Harvest who was pulled out at Exeter last Sunday because the ground went so bad.He was smashed off the boards( A 3 mile maiden hurdle winner last season, he’s been placed in two 2m 5f handicaps this term and the step up to 3 miles looks tailor made for him. Unlike market rival Sizeable Sam who has to prove his stamina having never raced behind 2m 5f.

Es Perfecto holds an Albert Bartlett entry and makes his handicap debut here having chased home Abravemansgame here over 2m 4 1/2f in November. He looks dangerous stepping up in trip as a 3 mile point winner.

 

SOUTHFIELD HARVEST 2 points each way @ 5/1 Hills 1/4 odds 1234

 

225 2m 7f 86yds Denman Chase

 

There’s quite a few questions marks against some of these. Terrefort has been off 710 days. Secret Investor, off since the Ladbroke Trophy, needs better ground. Kalashnikov has to prove his stamina for 3 miles as does Cepage. Dashel Drasher runs Saturday. The Conditional carries a 4lb penalty and has plenty to find at the weights. Lostintranslation has run two lack lustre runs this season and is here following a wind operation.

The only horse in the field who has no questions to answer is the Paul Nicholls trained Clan Des Obeaux who comes here in fine form this season following a 2nd in the Betfair Chase and a 3rd in the King George. He surely will be hard to beat.

 

CLAN DES OBEAUX 2 points win @ 10/11 Hills

 

300 2m 92yds Game Spirit Chase

 

I want to be  against the top two here. Greaneteen comes her on the back of a Haldon  Cup victory off of 151 and a 7 length second to stable companion Politologue in the Tingle Creek.  He has to carry a 6lb penalty here for his win and that makes him the worst off of all six runners on official ratings (also bottom rated by Timeform). 7/4? No thank you.

Champ is unbeaten here in four starts but this is been used as a prep race for his main target the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the trip is woefully short. He’s not the best of jumpers anyway and at a fast pace may find his jumping coming under pressure.

It’s odds one of the pair win but I’m looking elsewhere.

Sceau Royal is the obvious one against the two favs but he is very much ground dependent as he’s a much better horse on a better surface. He can still run well mind. Magic Saint is hard to fancy whilst Dolos is no forlorn hope at these weight though obviously Harry Cobden has picked Greaneteen over him.

Venetia William’s Fanion D’Estruval maybe the one to be with here. He was going well when crashing out three from home in the Peterborough Chase and was not disgraced at Ascot last time in the Clarence House Chase when finishing 4th beaten 9 lengths to First Flow. He was under two lengths behind Politologue that day at levels (Waiting Patiently splitting the pair and the smart Defi Du Seuil 8 lengths behind) whereas Greaneteen was 7 lengths behind Politologue at Sandown at levels. And Fanion D’Estruval is receiving 6lb today.  He looks terrific value at the prices.

 

FANION D’ESTRUVAL (below)  2 points win @ 6/1 Bet365

 

335 2m 69yds Betfair Hurdle

 

I previewed this in depth earlier in the week and my thoughts can be found on the earlier thread. I’m happy enough with my early selections though I would like to add Buzz to the selections as with Kevin Brogan booked can see him running well. As always shop around for the best place terms with some firms currently paying 7 places.

 

SOARING GLORY 1 point each way @ 6/1 Betfair SB 1/5th odds 1234567

BUZZ 1 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 1/5 odds 12345

MACK THE MAN 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 1/5 odds 1234567

 

410 2m 7f 86yds Novices Handicap Chase

All 6 of these have some type of chance with the only chasing debutant being Nicky Henderson’s Mill Green who tops the weights and is over looked here as he lacks chasing experience. Enrillo was last seen when only a 6/1 chance in the Kauto Star Novice Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day but was disappointing I thought and eventually pulled up. He’s better than that and will appreciate these calmer waters. Hold The Note is the one I like here though. He has some good back form (was 3rd in the now defunct Novices Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last season from a 7lb higher mark) and has had a wind operation since we last saw him when disappointing at Kempton on Boxing Day. With the hope that the wind op has helped he’s a tentative selection.

 

HOLD THE NOTE 1 point win 

 

445 2m 69yds Listed NH flat race

 

Not the strongest Newbury listed bumper there ever has been with the best form bought to the table by Nigel Twiston-Davies I Like To Move It who’s won both his bumpers at Aintree and Wincanton and has no penalties to carry here. As a 4 year old he receives a generous 9lb allowance. Might I’s form has been boosted since he won at Warwick with the runner up winning a nice race here but the form of Harry Fry’s  horse worries me.  I’m hearing good things about the Nicky Henderson trained , JP McManus owned ex French runner Horn Cape, who is by all accounts a big strong horse who will cope with soft conditions well. Last seen in July 2020 when winning a 1m 4 1/2f bumper at Argentan he maybe the value in a race that Henderson has won twice in the last ten years. He’s also a four year old so like I Like To Move It he too has a 9lb allowance here.

 

HORN CAPE 1 point win