Hunter Chase - 4.10 Warwick

[Darran]

I really can't wait for this race as there are a few fascinating contenders and it is certain to have Cheltenham ramifications. Needless to say I am hoping for a big run from Highway Jewel having put her up at 66/1 for Cheltenham. Maybe I was being greedy, but I was hoping she might be an e/w price although I guess if you beat Hazel Hill by 25L and he goes and wins since then I guess the bookies had to price her up at around 5/2. I obviously will have her onside, but I don't think she is massive value. First of all she only needs to finish in the first 4 to qualify for Cheltenham which is surely the main priority and there is also set to be a fair bit of pace on here. The Worlds End, Marcle Ridge, Back Bar, Vinnie Lewis could all be contenders to make the running as well especially Marcle Ridge. She has the potential to be the most exciting horse in the race and the performance in beating Hazel Hill really was something to watch. If she can produce that in her first run under rules she should at the very least qualify for Cheltenham and it might well be good enough to win as well.

The Worlds End looks a horse to take on. There is clearly a reason why they are going down the hunter chase route and although he ran OK in the Long Walk connections obviously think he isn't handicapped to win a handicap and not good enough to win a graded race. He has only had 5 races over fences although one of his 2 wins was in a 4 runner race at Cheltenham. What you have to consider though if you want to back him is that he needs to finish in the 1st 4 here and then again in another hunter chase before the end of the month. If he turns out to be classy enough to win this with ease then he will be a big player at Cheltenham, but surely connections are going to have it in the back of their minds that he needs two quick runs and 4th will be good enough. They won't want to bottom him here and like I say this race is going to be run at a good pace.

Marcle Ridge was a very good 6th at Cheltenham last year having set a strong pace. He returned with a good win at Barbury in December and although the hot favourite Jatiluwih failed to run his race it was still an impressive performance. What concerns me about his chances though is the testing ground which I don't think he wants. He also has to give a decent amount of weight away to Highway Jewel as well as the potential battle for the lead. I'm also not sure he is the strongest stayer although given the tongue-tie has gone on for the first time maybe that will help him see out the trip better. The opening 12/1 with Bet365 was a stupid price, but he is around the right price now for me.

Back Bar seems on the short side in the betting for me. He did it well in a Ladies Open at Wadebridge on his seasonal return although it wasn't the strongest race in the world. He did beat Latenightpass at Horseheath a year ago though which was a good effort. Even so I find it hard to see him being good enough to take this as he has some improvement to find based on what the others have done.

Vinnie Lewis is interesting given we know he stays well and handles testing ground. He had looked to be going the wrong way last season, but for new connections he bolted up at Alnwick in December. Granted his jockey rode him out all the way to the line, but he managed to clock a slightly faster time than Red Indian, who is prominent in the Foxhunter market, when carrying 16lbs more. His jockey that day is pretty inexperienced so the fact Adam Wedge is on him is a big plus. I'm guessing they want to qualify him for Cheltenham, but I think they would want to take a race like this on the way and he can go well.

I don't fancy Monbeg Gold whose jumping has been a hinderance especially in his two hunter chase runs last season. This is stronger than either of those two contests as well.

Latenightpass has won his only hunter chase start at Cheltenham when he took the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night in 2019. I think connections want to run him in the Foxhunter, but first time out I find it hard to see him being good enough for this. He's also already qualified for Cheltenham so this could be a prep run more than anything.

The only other horse that is worth mentioning is Ange Des Malberaux. Obviously his unseat was painful last time at Ludlow and clearly on bare form he does need to find a bit. However as I pointed out the jockey change was clearly working big time. We know he stays, we know the ground wont be an issue and if the pace does collapse up front the race could well be set up for something that is held up slightly off the pace. Also connections wont be worrying at getting him qualified for Cheltenham so will be looking to win whatever the situation. At 33/1 I have to have a small e/w bet on him again.

So to sum up I have to be with Highway Jewel given my ante-post bet on her and the fact she was so impressive last time. Qualification for Cheltenham is key though and winning this will be a bonus on the way. Hopefully she can back up how highly I viewed her performance at Chaddesley Corbett. I will also cover Vinnie Lewis who looked good when winning last time and wont mind a slog in the mud at all. Finally a small bet on Ange Des Malberaux at massive odds again.

Highway Jewel 2pts @ 3/1 with Bet365

Vinnie Lewis 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with BetVictor

Ange Des Malberaux 0.25pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365

[calva decoy]

I've backed DR.DES 14/1 unibet ( 4 places ) in this , 1 win & 1 placed effort under rules last 3 & placed in similar race 59 days ago .