Racing Chat - Sunday 24th May

[Darran]

Not the best of days with the bets at Randwick and Flemington on Saturday, but we move on to Sandown on Sunday and 3 jumps races including the Australian Hurdle and Australian Steeplechase. The track is already a Heavy9 and although just because it was a wet day at Flemington it doesn't mean it was raining at Sandown, I would be surprised if they didn't get some rain on Saturday and I am fully expecting it to be very hard work.

Race 1 (3.05am)

A BM120 Hurdle to get the card underway and its an interesting little race. I put up So Belafonte when he won at the Bool last time and it was a hell of an effort. He was taken on for the lead by the horse who ended up finishing last and they went pretty quick. Every time he was challenged late on though he just kept finding. It was a really gutsy effort although this is a better race so I will pass him over. 

I put up Diamond Star Halo to win the Champion Novice Hurdle at the Bool and he made a mess of the last which might well have cost him victory with Riding High just getting up to score. Flying Agent was back in 3rd and I think he can reverse the form. Tomorrow they are racing off level weights, whereas Flying Agent had to carry 1kg more last time. Also I am not sure Diamond Star Halo wants testing ground and his jumping is always going to be a concern. In heavy ground there is going to be more pressure on his jumping as he gets tired. Flying Agent has won 3 times in heavy ground, including his maiden hurdle at Ballarat and there should be more to come from him given it was his first hurdle start of the prep. He looks the best value in the contest.

Michelin is set to go off favourite here and he did beat Flying Agent twice last season. The 2nd time they were 1st and 2nd at Pakenham and there was just a length between them off level weights. Michelin now has to give him 1.5kg. Michelin was impressive at Sale a couple of weeks ago beating a decent horse in Scholarly impressively. He has won on heavy ground so that shouldn't be an issue and I think he has a really good chance. The problem for me is the price and its tight enough for me at 11/10 so for me I will go with Flying Agent at a much bigger price as he should be a fair bit shorter for me.

Flying Agent @ 7/1 with Bet365 and Betfred

Race 2 (3.45am)

I have to be against Runaway here as he looks very short in the betting. He was beaten by Gobstopper in the Galleywood last time and I am not sure he wants the step up to 3900m, especially on heavy ground. He has never run on heavy ground before so it will be a very tough test stepping up to 3900m for the first time. He ran at Flemington last week which seemed an odd move and the ride he got was equally bizarre. He wasn't able to front run and then made a mid race move to share the running only to fade badly late on and end up finishing 9th. He is a decent horse, but I just don't see what makes him an 11/10 shot for this.

As well as Gobstopper, Ancient King, Robbie's Star, Woodsman and Mystic Prince also ran in the Galleywood. Mystic Prince doesn't seem to have an obvious chance and although Woodsman was found to be lame I thought it was a disappointing effort. He ran on the flat last weekend and it was a fair effort so he was clearly over the lameness, but he still has a bit to find for me.

Gobstopper has won 4 of his 7 hurdles starts now and will no doubt run his race again, but I think there is scope opposing him with the horses who finished 3rd and 4th. I put up Ancient King e/w in the Galleywood and he kept going to finish 3rd. He was closing on the front 2 at the line and we know he handles the track and conditions as he won the Grand National Hurdle over course and distance in 2017 on a Heavy 9 track. He only has to give Gobstopper 0.5kg here having had to give him 1kg last time and over this further trip I think Ancient King can hold the advantage.

I think Robbie's Star has a superb chance as well. 9 of his 10 wins have come on a heavy track and he will thrive under these conditions. He's never been over this far before, but he looks like he will stay as he was doing all his best work late in the Galleywood. He was waited with out the back and he probably made his move to be able to win the race. He ran at Cranbourne just over a week ago to keep him ticking over and wasn't asked to do a great deal there. I like both their chances and will be splitting my stakes as I they both look over priced.

The only one I haven't mentioned is Riding High who is the up and comer having won both his 2 hurdles starts to date. The way he races you would think he would stay, but the ground has to be a concern as I am not sure he wants it as testing as it will be.

Ancient King @ 13/2 with Betfred

Robbie's Star @ 7/1 with Bet365

Race 3 (4.25am)

The Australian Steeplechase isn't an overly strong race in my view and I am going to stick with the favourite here Slowpoke Rodriguez. He was sent off favourite for the Brierley last time, but was never really put into the race until it was too late and he ended up coming 4th. That was his first jumps race since last August so he should come on for that. What is really interesting is that Lee Horner rides him and he is married to Amy McDonald who trains Shamal. You would have thought if they fancied Shamal he would have ridden that one. Slowpoke Rodriguez likes heavy ground and his best run came in the Crisp Chase here again last Auguest when he was just beaten by Wells and had Bit Of A Lad behind in 3rd. If he comes on from that first steeple run I think he goes close.

Shamal is having his first start for McDonald having been trained in New Zealand. He has some strong form over there and if fit he would be a player here. He fell in the Grand National Chase at Ballarat before the race had got going so we don't know how he would have got on. It wouldn't surprise me if he had the quality to win, but I can't help think that he will need the run.

Georgethefifth is the other one I think has a chance. He is another ex New Zealand horse and he bolted up in the BM120 chase at the Bool. I took him on there as he was struggling to win his races and in the end I don't think that race was particular strong. The other issue here is he is a fair way out of the handicap. Slowpoke Rodriguez is rated 129 and carries 66kg whilst Georgethefifth also has to carry 66kg yet is rated 116. There could be more to come now he has won again and he will handle the ground.

Lucques was in front of Slowpoke Rodriquez in the Brierly when he was 2nd. He wouldn't be totally out of it, but his Sandown record isn't great. Bit Of A Lad was a well beaten 4th in the Grand Annual and at his best he would have claims, but he seems like a horse who is solid, but struggles to win at this sort of level. To be fair like I say this isn't a strong heat so he might be up to it. 

At the end of the day though I think there is more to come from Slowpoke Rodriguez and we will see a better performance than we did last time.

Slowpoke Rodriguez @ 13/8 with Betfred

[BillyHills]

Sha Tin (Group 1 Race),  Ballarat (AUS) and Deauville

 

Sha Tin
730: Good Luck Friend
905: Exultant
1050: Glorious Spectrum

6/1 Treble with Betvictor

 

Ballarat

435: Sacred Goddess 
615: Sensitivity
725: Celeritate Regem

14/1 Treble with bet365

 

Deauville

325: Call The Wind
400: Bring On The Night
510: Tawkeel

5/1 Treble with bet365