Hunter Chase - 4.30 Ludlow

[Darran]

A quick look back at Wednesday's races first and the Musselburgh race really did sum up the season so far. It was no surprise that Virak won, but Lord Scoundrel was certainly the 2nd best horse in the race and yet somehow after looking booked for 2nd he ended up finishing 4th. The two of them raced from a long way out and Lord Scoundrel had nothing left after he lost that battle, but he comes out of the race with great credit for me. Nine Altars was tailed off for most of the race and yet flew home to finish 2nd. His jockey Charlotte Dun picked up a 12 day ban for the ride she gave him which is very harsh in my view. She is a 7lb amateur jockey and as she quite rightly said to the stewards she thought the front two had gone off two fast. To a certain extent they had and given how much he had to find on form with the winner I think he achieved his best possible placing. Even so given how little experience she has how can you go and give her such a huge ban. I haven't seen a head on so I don't know when she made her move, but there is every chance the ride was similar to the one Victoria Pendleton gave Pacha Du Polder in the Foxhunter and she didn't get a ban. I think Nine Altars and Eco Warrior helped each other by racing each other into 2nd and 3rd. I certainly think they are flattered but Nine Altars was 2nd in the final of this last season so he is fairly consistent despite struggling to win.

Chef D'Equipe was certainly on a going day today and despite setting a decent pace he found plenty late on to get back up and beat Swift Crusador after being headed. The 2nd wasn't helped by a really bad mistake at the water jump, but I am not sure it made a difference to the result. Even so it was a good effort. Art Mauresque never got into the race and plugged on for 3rd. That does qualify him for Aintree though, but its hard to fancy him for that after this. Asockastar was a big drifter which makes me think he wasn't fit and he ran like he wasn't. I will certainly be prepared to give him another chance.

Onto Thursday's action and with Taunton off we are down to just Ludlow and 4 of these ran in the same race last time with The Dellercheckout won. Monbeg Gold was 2nd, O Ceallaigh was 3rd and Dieu Vivant was well beaten back in 3rd. I'm a bit surprised that the last named is having a 3rd go over course and distance because he ran like he didn't stay the last time and in softer ground it is hard to think he is going to be capable of beating the other two. I backed him last time as I did O Ceallaigh who unseated at two out at Leicester. I thought he ran really well behind The Dellercheckout, but the Leicester race was weaker and I thought he was probably beat when coming down although he still hadn't been fully asked for his chance. I still get the feeling Monbeg Gold will get the better of him though given it was his first run of the season and a blunder two out didn't help him either. 

So that leaves us with the other one who has a serious chance Optimised and he just happens to have also finished behind The Dellercheckout this season. That came at Barbury in December when he was 4th beaten 3 and 3/4L. Monbeg Gold finished 1/4L closer to him at Ludlow. If you include the jockey's allowance then Monbeg Gold gets 3lbs here so that tips things just in his favour. Optimised is a hunter chase winner already when he just won at Bangor last year, although that form probably wasn't as strong as it looked at the time. His 2nd in the 4 mile race at Cheltenham when going down a length to Southfield Theatre was a much better effort for me. The problem is I just wonder if this will be a stiff enough test for him and he was also a bit disappointing when 2nd to Alfstar last time and he did nothing for the form at Leicester. 

I think Monbeg Gold can build on the debut hunter chase effort over course and distance and he can go one better here probably at the expense of Optimised.

Monbeg Gold 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor

[David Stephenson]

Thanks for the info Darran and thanks for all your hard work burning the midlight oil compiling the post. Very much appreciated by me at least. Hope to see you at Didmarton!