The Everest and Caulfield Cup

[Darran]

In it's 3rd year now, The Everest is the richest turf race in the world and it brings together the best sprinters in the country and for the 2nd year running Aidan O'Brien has sent over his July Cup winner to add a bit of international flavour to the race. The race will be live on Sky Sports Racing on Saturday morning  at 6.15 and here are my thoughts on the runners.

 

Santa Ana Lane - I put him up for this last year because I thought he would handle the Heavy 9 track, but he didn't at all and he showed that running to be all wrong when he landed the VRC Classic at Flemington a month later. He tends to need his first run so it was no surprise that after finishing 5th in the Newmarket to Sunlight he was able then beat that one in the T J Smith 2nd up. He made his return this prep in the Gilgai at Flemington 2 weeks ago and ran a really good race to finish 2nd to Sunlight. That should out him spot on for this and I make him the one they all have to beat.

 

Pierata - Landed the consolation race to The Everest, the Sydney Stakes last year and the went onto finish 3rd behind Santa Ana Lane and In Her Time in the VRC Classic at Flemington. He got his Group 1 win over 1400m here in April when taking the All Aged from Osborne Bulls. He had though already finished behind Nature Strip as mentioned above and Santa Ana Lane in the T J Smith when he was only 5th. This prep he has finished 2nd to Redzel in the Concorde and then reversed that form when winning The Shorts. I like him as a horse and can see him running well, but I do get the impression he isn't quite the best of these.

 

Redzel - Has won both renewals of this contest so far. In 2017 he was clearly the best sprinter in Australia, but he certainly can't lay claim to that now and I thought he only won this last year because the ground was so bad and plenty didn't handle it. He has run 7 times since that run and his only win was the Concorde last month. Last prep he was only 8th in The Galaxy and 6th in the T J Smith. He clearly has it in him to land the hat-trick, but without the ground hindering the others I just can't see him being good enough to do so.

 

Nature Strip - Such a frustrating horse personally as I thought he looked like he would turn into the world's best sprinter, but the two times he has managed to win a Group 1 I had deserted him thinking he never would. The first of those was over 1100m in March in the Galaxy when he just held on from Pierata. Then last time he took the Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley back over 1000m. He is all about speed and I am still surprised he won in heavy ground over 1100m. He has won over 1200m, but that was only a Listed race and I just struggle to see him lasting home although the lack of rain will help in that regard. If he does happen to stay then he certainly has the class to win.

 

Trekking - Booked his spot by winning the Schillaci at Caulfield on Saturday and although that was a decent effort and he did win the Group 1 Stradbroke at Eagle Farm in June he looks unlikely to be good enough for me.

 

Classique Legend - Only had 6 starts and made a winning debut in February. The 2nd in the Shorts when finishing behind Pierata and in front of Redzel, but was then only 3rd last time in the Premiere. Has yet to even run in a Group 1, but at the same time doesn't look out of place in the line-up given what he has done so far in his short career. This is probably a year too soon for him though.

 

Ten Sovereigns - Things did not go well for U S Navy Flag when Aidan O'Brien sent him over for this last year as he hated the ground and was a well beaten 9th in the end. Like him Ten Sovereigns comes here after winning the July Cup. I thought it was the most impressive performance in a sprint during the season at the time and was keen on him for the Nunthorpe only for him to be a massive disappointment. He runs like that again then he has no chance, but if he runs as he did at Newmarket then I think he has a really good chance. He is likely to get a strong pace to aim at and the ground certainly can't be an excuse this year.

 

Alizee - Her Group 1 wins so far have all come over further than 1200m  although she has won 3 Group 2's over the trip. Two of those came this year although both only had 5 runners and you have to think she is a better horse over further.

 

Sunlight - A really likable mare who I was lucky enough to see in the flesh when she won the Group 1 William Reid at Moonee Valley in March. Prior to that she had won the Newmarket at Flemington and after it she was 3rd to Santa Anna Lane in the T J Smith over course and distance. She has had 3 starts so far this prep and has improved with every start winning the Gilgai at Flemington when beating Santa Anna Lane. My suspicion is that Santa Anna Lane will reverse form her given that he was first up, but I can certainly see Sunlight running a big race and could easily hit the frame

 

In Her Time - Was really impressive when winning the consolation for this in 2017 and got her chance in this last year, but she was another who got stuck in the mud when only 7th behind Redzel. She is a good horse and landed the Group 1 Lightening Stakes at Flemington in February over 1000m when Sunlight was back in 3rd. She was then 6th in the Newmarket, but was giving Sunlight 4kg that day. She will be first up her although she has had 3 trial races including when 2nd over 1000m behind Redzel on October 8th. She has a good first up record, but to go and land a race like this first up will surely be too tough.

 

Arcadia Queen - A former Western Australian mare who is now with Chris Waller and has won 6 of her 7 races so far. She ended her Western Australian career winning the Kingston Town last December over 1800m. She has had just the one start for Waller so far and she won the Group 2 Theo Marks last month at Rosehill over 1300m. She is clearly a very good horse that still looks to be progressing, but the only time she has run over 1200m was on her debut and she is facing world class sprinters here. Still I wouldn't want to rule her out entirely given her trainer and she is pushing for favouritism.

 

Yes Yes Yes - The 3rd Waller runner and another who hasn't been racing for all that long. He made his debut last December and ended up winning a Group 2 over course and distance in March before finishing 7th in the Golden Slipper. He's had two runs this prep finishing 2nd both times over 1200m and 1400m. He's clearly good, but again I'm not sure he is quite at the top level just yet.

 

Summary - For me Santa Anna Lane is the best sprinter over 1200m in Australia at the moment and given we are looking at good ground on Saturday morning there will be no ground excuse this time around. He is the most likely winner for me. Nature Strip is likely to lead as I would be a bit surprised if they didn't just try and play catch me if you can. I don't think holding him up will work any better. I don't think Redzel is quite at the level of the last two years and might have got lucky last year anyway. I think Ten Sovereigns is worth chancing at the prices e/w. On the July Cup win I give him a big chance in this and he looks a bit over priced to me. It will be fascinating to see what Arcadia Queen will do, but of the females I think Sunlight is probably the one most likely to do the best with Pierata also a top 4 contender.

 

As they like to give the first 4 in Australia here is my idea of who is going to fill those spots.

 

1 - Santa Anna Lane (9/2 with William Hill)

2 - Ten Sovereigns (win and place at 26 and 5.5 at Bet365. Scroll down to the Oz section in the racing part click on Saturday and then it is R7 at Randwick. That is much bigger than he is available in the UK markets)

3 - Sunlight

4 - Pierata

 

A Caufield Cup preview will follow at some point

[Darran]

The Caulfield Cup is do off at 7.15am and has plenty of horses familiar to UK punters. Sadly it seems you won't be able to watch it as RacingTV has the rights and they don't seem to want to show it. What you can do is get a Racing.com account and watch their superb coverage if you want to watch it live.

Hartnell - Been a superb horse moving to Australia and although he doesn't win very often now he is still able to run to a really high level. It is interesting they are running him back into a handicap and his 3rd in the 

Turbull at Flemington last time was a top effort as I think the winner has a great chance in the Cox Plate next week. He doesn't have a great draw here and it is hard to see him winning, but he should run another good race.

 

Mirage Dancer - Has got some very good form when trained by Stoute and although the defeat at 4/6 at Glorious Goodwood looks poor at first glance he was beaten by Desert Encounter so it is actually good form. He was 2nd to last years Caulfield Cup Best Solution at the July Meeting last year and there are plenty of other form lines which give him an obvious chance here. 

 

Mer De Glace - An interesting runner from Japan and comes here chasing a 6 timer. The problem is he has a terrible draw and he also looks like he might need a rock hard track which he won't get so I will pass him over here.

 

Mustajeer - The Ebor winner who is more than likely using this as a prep run for the Melbourne Cup next month. No doubt he will be staying on late and it is more about looking for a good run for that than winning this in my view.

 

Rostropovich - Won't be a dry eye in the house if he wins as jockey Dwayne Dunn's father passed away this week. Was 2nd in last year's Irish Derby and a really good 5th in the Melbourne Cup. Made a pleasing return in the Makybe Diva over 1600m and then didn't get the best of rides in the Turnbull. Doesn't have the best draw here but I would imagine he will be closer to the pace and he has the form to go well.

 

Finche - Finished one place in front of Rostropovich in the Melbourne Cup and has done well this prep having moved to Chris Waller. He won the Kingston Town at Randwick over 2000m and then was beaten a short head by Kings Will Dream in the Turbull. He will enjoy the step up in trip and it is easy to see why he is at the top of the market.

 

Gold Mount - Been very well travelled and found himself back in the UK with Ian Williams this year where he won the Ebor Grand Cup at York in June beating Raheen House and was then 2nd to Red Verdon in the Silver Cup over the same course and distance the following month. He does have form over shorter, but I just wonder if this is a prep for the Melbourne Cup especially as he was 4th in the Dubai Gold Cup in March.

 

Red Verdon - Didn't get the clearest of runs in this last year when only 11th but it does sort of back up the view that he needs further than 2400m now. Bit disappointing in the Ebor last time.

 

Angel Of Truth - Won the Australian Derby at Randwick in April and clearly enjoys testing ground looking at his form. Suspect he has been aimed at this and has run creditably over shorter trips so far this prep although the ground doesn't look like being testing enough.

 

Big Duke - Former UK trained horse and was a great 4th in the Melbourne Cup during his first year over here. He hasn't won since before that though and although has had the odd good run since he is easily passed over here.

 

Constantinople - Has the form to win this especially his 2nd to Logician in the Great Voltigeur last time. The problem is he doesn't look the most genuine horse in the world so will he actually go through with his effort? He has a cracking draw though and can win this.

 

Mr Quickie - Won the Queensland Derby in June and made a superb return when flying home in the fastest 200m of the day in the Makybe Diva when 3rd. The temp and pattern of the racing meant he didn't really have a chance in the Turnbull last time and he should do a lot better here.

 

Crown Prosecutor - Won the New Zealand Derby in March at 100/1 and hasn't done too badly since. Chances are he has a bit to find though.

 

Vow And Declare - Is weighted to beat Finche based on his 4th in the Turnbull and that was a very good effort first up. Was 2nd to Mr Quickie in the Queensland Derby and then beat Big Duke in the Tattersall's Cup a couple of weeks later. Good draw and looks to have decent claims.

 

Brimham Rocks - Poor draw and the win at Caulfield two starts back sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his form.

 

The Chosen One - Drawn in 22 which probably will stop him from getting close I would imagine. Good winner of the Herbert Power over course and distance last week just beating Prince Of Arran. 

 

Qafila - Won the South Australian Derby in May, but suspect she won't be good enough to land this.

 

Wolfe - Won the Coogny Cup on Wednesday to win a ballot exemption for this and has been running well this prep. A decent run wouldn't surprise.

 

Summary - I have a shortlist of 6. Mirage Dancer, Rostropovich, Finche, Constantinople, Mr Quickie and Vow And Declare. I'm going to side with Mirage Dance e/w as the main bet in the race as I like his UK form and as we know the staying UK form seems stronger than the Australian form. Mr Quickie could be the best of the home team so he goes in the 2nd spot. Vow And Declare is weighted to beat Finche so he goes in the 3rd spot especially as he has a better draw. Finally I am putting Constantinople in for 4th as he clearly has the class to win this it is just a case of he puts it all in.

 

1 Mirage Dancer e/w

2 Mr Quickie

3 Vow And Declare

4 Constantinople

 

NB Skybet and Betfred are offering 5 places. Also in Australia they only pay 3 places so if you bet with Bet365 in the place market it will only be 3 places.