Racing Chat - Friday June 28th

[BillyHills]

7 meetings

Lucky 7 Bingo Bet

255 Ca: Sonic 11/4
410 Yr: Aweedram 9/4
350 Dn: Fox Leicester 9/4
730 Ch: Gabrial 6/4
415 Cu: Peace Charter 3/1
850 Nc: Gleeful 3/1
645 Nm: Nahaar 6/5

[Darran]

 

The 4.00 features Dee Star and Dutch Canyon and whilst I think both are worth backing I am stronger on Dee Star. On pointing ratings on you wouldn't say that Dee Star would be able to give 20lbs to Dutch Canyon, but I think here it might be all about the horse being in the right grade and if it was a Class 4 I am not sure Dee Star could win, but crucially off 100 he can get into this contest. We know he handles the track as he bolted up in the maiden hunter chase here in May and whilst that was over a shorter trip, he was hardly stopping and on quicker ground I don't think the trip is an issue. Fateh was 2nd that day and we all know how well he was backed at Ffos Las last week. He was 3rd in the Heart Of All England and that race was probably a bit stronger than I gave it credit for at the time. Gina keeps the ride and she has been on top for both wins so far so that is an obvious plus as well.

 

Dutch Canyon went from maiden point win to winning at Hexham a couple of weeks and that was a decent effort and he is only 5lbs higher for the win. He had struggled under rules prior to this season, but clearly dropping into a point was the key and he looks an improved horse now. He looks like he stays well and now he's in form he is clearly a player in this very weak contest. Obviously in this grade you do from time to time get a sudden improvement from a horse, but to me Scottshill is the only danger. He won in a higher grade last time and although he is up 9lbs he is just allowed into this 0-100 as horses rated up to 102 (his rating) are able to run in 0-100s. You never really know where you stand with horses from this yard, but if he repeats the Warwick run he will push the two bets close I suspect.

 

In the 2nd race Midnight Folie is back out again over hurdles this time so she can run off a mark of 85 and has her jockey's 7lbs claim off her back as well. I don't see hurdles being an issue and as long as she can handle a 3rd quick run then she should win yet again. I have got a bigger price than the 10/11 she currently is, but I think that is still value as for me that does take into account the fact it is her 3rd quick run. It goes without saying it isn't a strong race and given I think she has 30lbs in hand there is scope for her not to be at her best and still win.