Racing Chat - Tuesday June 25th

[BillyHills]

Looks tough on Tuesday!

EW Lucky 15

300 Bev: Sioux Frontier 5/1
415 Bri: Luxford 4/1
740 Nb: Image Of The Moon 4/1
815 Nb: Sir Roderic 15/2

good luck all 

[Darran]

Great to get paid out on Buck Dancing at last. Obviously at Stratford we were on e/w, but I really fancied him at Hexham when he ran his only poor race of the year. We got that back and more though on Monday so that was good.

 

Onto Tuesday and there are plenty of runners from points and hunter chases running at Newton Abbot.

 

In the first race I am keen on Ardview Boy. In Ireland he didn't win in 28 starts and he then failed to win his first 4 points for new connections this year. The last of those he slipped up when in front and as 11/10 fav. He finally got his head in front last month when clocking a winning time of 5.26 so clearly the track at Llwyn Ddu is not 3m which is important given the trip here is 2m2f. He followed that up 5 days later winning his restricted and then on Derby Day he won an Intermediate. He is clearly in the form of his life at the moment and connections have found a very winnable race for. Ben Jones keeps the ride from points which is no bad thing as he takes another 7lbs off. The only horse I am really concerned about is Lapford Lad who is clearly in very good form himself and although he has gone up 11lbs since the first win last month the fact he is bang in form in this low grade is more important. Hopefully Ardview Boy can beat him to get the evening off to a good start.

 

It could be a big night for Ben as in the next race he gets to ride Midnight Foile who of course won last week for us when he was on top. Obviously there are more runners in this race, but it looks another good opportunity and he didn't look to take too much out of himself last week. Skinflint has been pointing this year, but in my view what he has achieved isn't up to what Midnight Foile has done. He fell on his last start when in every chance 2 out and he had won his restricted and intermediate on the two previous starts. I do think he is a danger, but given the times of the races he has won and the fact he won his maiden over 2m4f suggests the trip could be an issue. He does though look in the best form he has been in so far in his short career.

 

If This Breac can get close to his 3rd at Fontwell last year then he wouldn't be out of this on his first start for Jimmy Frost and the fact his daughter takes over for the first time is a pretty significant jockey switch. His form this season would need improving on, but I think he is worth a small cover bet e/w at 16/1 given he has the form to be competitive in this and he does stay this far.

 

Ballycahane was a horse I thought had a chance at Cheltenham in the Intermediate Final, but he never got involved. On the back of that and his point run after that he can be passed for me. Like I say it's a race that does have more depth than the Ffos Las one, but given how much I think Midnight Folie has in hand of the handicapper the only thing that can get him beat is if the race comes too soon, but given he had short times between his races in points this year that shouldn't be an issue. A small e/w bet on This Breac is the other play.

 

Moving onto the 7.55 and I think Robin Des People and Ballyknock Cloud are worth backing. I thought Robin Des People was a little high in the weights when he ran at Bangor, but although he was 6th of 8 he was only beaten 3 and a half lengths so it was a decent enough effort on his first start for the yard. Clearly they thought he wind was an issue as he has had a wind op and the tongue-tie is back on. The win at Stratford last year was a decent effort and he is worth backing. The main bet though is Ballyknock Cloud who has looked very good in a couple of point wins last month (his first win was a walkover). Those two efforts suggest he is in much better form than he was in under rules earlier in the year and late last year. On those handicap chase efforts you wouldn't fancy him at all, but going pointing could well be the key to him and now he's in form he could be about to show what he can do over rules fences. At 8/1 Ballyknock Cloud can still be backed e/w and Robin Des People is 5/1.