Racing Chat - Saturday 1st June (Derby Day)

[Hit 1st, Fell 2nd]

Bearing in mind that i tend to steer away from the competitive races at big meetings and much prefer to search the smaller races for a winner i thought it was an apt title. I am indebted to Thomas Hardy for the title and would have asked his permission but seeing as he died in 1928 that was a bit of a non starter.  As we all know, a 10/1 winner at Hexham pays the same as a 10/1 winner at Royal Ascot. But probably a lot easier to find. Tomorrow for instance, i gave Epsom's card a whole 40 seconds of my time and that was that.

I had a look at four races spread out over Musselburgh, Worcester and Hexham and i've found one which must go really well and will give anyone who backs it a run for their money.

At Worcester in the first i narrowed it down to three but no money will be changing hands here. If forced into a bet it would be Shoal Bay who definitely needs to go this way round after his shenanigans at Kempton last time out. This lad won his first two racecourse starts in 2017 before finishing fourth at Cheltenham in a novice hurdle won by Western Ryder. In front of him in third that day was Summerville Boy who we all know went on to win the "Supreme" the following March. Shoal Bay was only 3L behind that day and was trying to concede 6lb. He actually ran in the Supreme but was pulled up. This is not a great race and one that a horse of his ability should be winning but i wont be having a bet.

In the next at Worcester i would much rather look for an each way option than take the odds on about the fav, Alltimegold. This one may well win but "may" doesnt mean it will. Its only six weeks ago that it failed to give Duhallowcountry a stone at Newcastle and if i had a new pair of trainers i reckon i could give Duhallowcountry a stone and a beating. He was off 87 that day, 113 tomorrow, and with such a big weight i would definitely be looking elsewhere. Flints Legacy and Zoltan Varga would be two with obvious each way claims.

In the last at Hexham it rests between the top five and thats about as much as i gleaned. For a pick i would go for recent Cartmel winner, Chocolat Noir.

But the last at Musselburgh was the race that interested me most. Its a lady riders race with both professional and amateurs taking part. Josie Gordon has got a mount, and so has Hayley and also Megan Nicholls. But i reckon none of them will win it and i am very sweet on Baydar. I know its last formline doesnt read very well but the horse was bang in contention half a mile out before clearly failing to get home and the jockey, Sean Davis, wisely let it coast home and it trotted the last two furlongs. Soft ground does suit this horse and the drop back in trip to its ideal distance will bring about a much improved run. Lets not forget that this horse was rated 105 at his peak and has won off 99. He ran two excellent races in defeat last season when third to Arrowtown at York in October trying to concede a pound to that horse who was in excellent form at the time and was notching a hat trick. Baydar was also a fast finishing second to Ravenous at Chester in September when beaten only a head and was trying to give the winner 19lb on that occasion. He was running off marks of 88 and 89 those days and this mark of 73 is the lowest he has ever raced off. Joanna Mason takes another 5lb off and we all know this lass can ride. She actually won a sprint at Redcar the other day and i think she may well have two winners this week.

Views anyone ?

[Sir Puntalot]

36 minutes ago, Hit 1st, Fell 2nd said:

Bearing in mind that i tend to steer away from the competitive races at big meetings and much prefer to search the smaller races for a winner i thought it was an apt title. I am indebted to Thomas Hardy for the title and would have asked his permission but seeing as he died in 1928 that was a bit of a non starter.  As we all know, a 10/1 winner at Hexham pays the same as a 10/1 winner at Royal Ascot. But probably a lot easier to find. Tomorrow for instance, i gave Epsom's card a whole 40 seconds of my time and that was that.

I had a look at four races spread out over Musselburgh, Worcester and Hexham and i've found one which must go really well and will give anyone who backs it a run for their money.

At Worcester in the first i narrowed it down to three but no money will be changing hands here. If forced into a bet it would be Shoal Bay who definitely needs to go this way round after his shenanigans at Kempton last time out. This lad won his first two racecourse starts in 2017 before finishing fourth at Cheltenham in a novice hurdle won by Western Ryder. In front of him in third that day was Summerville Boy who we all know went on to win the "Supreme" the following March. Shoal Bay was only 3L behind that day and was trying to concede 6lb. He actually ran in the Supreme but was pulled up. This is not a great race and one that a horse of his ability should be winning but i wont be having a bet.

In the next at Worcester i would much rather look for an each way option than take the odds on about the fav, Alltimegold. This one may well win but "may" doesnt mean it will. Its only six weeks ago that it failed to give Duhallowcountry a stone at Newcastle and if i had a new pair of trainers i reckon i could give Duhallowcountry a stone and a beating. He was off 87 that day, 113 tomorrow, and with such a big weight i would definitely be looking elsewhere. Flints Legacy and Zoltan Varga would be two with obvious each way claims.

In the last at Hexham it rests between the top five and thats about as much as i gleaned. For a pick i would go for recent Cartmel winner, Chocolat Noir.

But the last at Musselburgh was the race that interested me most. Its a lady riders race with both professional and amateurs taking part. Josie Gordon has got a mount, and so has Hayley and also Megan Nicholls. But i reckon none of them will win it and i am very sweet on Baydar. I know its last formline doesnt read very well but the horse was bang in contention half a mile out before clearly failing to get home and the jockey, Sean Davis, wisely let it coast home and it trotted the last two furlongs. Soft ground does suit this horse and the drop back in trip to its ideal distance will bring about a much improved run. Lets not forget that this horse was rated 105 at his peak and has won off 99. He ran two excellent races in defeat last season when third to Arrowtown at York in October trying to concede a pound to that horse who was in excellent form at the time and was notching a hat trick. Baydar was also a fast finishing second to Ravenous at Chester in September when beaten only a head and was trying to give the winner 19lb on that occasion. He was running off marks of 88 and 89 those days and this mark of 73 is the lowest he has ever raced off. Joanna Mason takes another 5lb off and we all know this lass can ride. She actually won a sprint at Redcar the other day and i think she may well have two winners this week.

Views anyone ?

Love the detailed post and have merged it into Daily Chat thread for the racing guys.