Hunter Chase - 3.25 Ludlow

[Darran]

Good to see a big field of 13 for the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season especially given we have been used to seeing small fields over jumps in recent weeks. It is an interesting race as well although there are plenty that I think have little chance. Didntitellya, Tb Broke Her, Bosmna Rule and Deadly Sting are crossed off straight away. Odd to see Sadler's Risk run again so quickly after what happened at Taunton last week, but I can't have him either. Mantou won a very weak Hunter Chase at Sedgefield last year and the rest of his form last season suggests he is going to struggle to make much of an impact here. 

I find it odd to see that the Racing Post Spotlight writer suggests Little Jon has been accustomed to stronger races than this, because I don't think he has been in his last few runs. The Wincanton run was decent enough when he was 2nd back in March, but that was off 123 and even that run I don't think would be good enough to win this. Added to that I think he wants a shorter trip.

I must admit I know very about No Duffer's trainer. I am as certain as I can be that it will be his first ever runner as he hasn't trained any pointers and had no runners under rules. The only A Lake I can find in the pointing register is a jockey who had 3 rides back in 2006. My guess is it is the same guy, but I can offer no more info beyond that. He is clearly on the downgrade, but did run really well to finish 2nd at Ascot back in March, the runs either side of it weren't without promise either especially in the context of this race. If he was still with Tom George then I would have been stronger on his chances, but the percentage call is that first time out he is worth opposing especially given I know little about the trainer.

I'm really surprised Crazy Jack is in single figures for this. To be fair he had run some creditable races in hunter chases over the last couple of years before he finally won one at Stratford's Hunter Chase night. However that was a handicap and he was thrown in off a mark of 109 based on his two previous runs at Cheltenham and here at Ludlow. I don't think he quite stays this far and Now Ben has beaten him in the past and I don't think he can reverse the form. Every chance this is being used as a pipe opener for the season.

Now Ben won the John Corbet Cup in 2017 and was due to run in this race last year but was a non runner. He won 3 from 4 in points and his only Hunter Chase run was in the Stratford Foxhunters where the ground was totally against him after it was over watered. This season he returned with a good win at Cottenham in quick time as well. I'm not surprised he has already been nibbled in the betting because a double figure price about this course and distance winner was crazy. As long as they don't get too much rain the ground will be ideal.

I am surprised to see Taunton winner Road To Rome out again so soon. Hard to know the reason why either, but he has to have a big chance on that form. He thrashed them and his point rating he got after that is the same as Marinero has so it is hard to see why those two should have such a big price difference. Interestingly he has led in all four runs for his trainer so far and Now Ben and Beeves are also likely pace setters so it will  be interesting to see if Will decides to just sit in behind if he feels they are going too quick. I wasn't overly impressed with his jumping last week, but Ludlow isn't much of a jumping test and it wasn't as if he ever looked like falling. I find it hard to see him being out of the frame at the very least.

Marinero is the Maxwell chosen one from his numerous entries, but I actually don't really fancy him. That Ascot Hunter Chase he won doesn't look too bad form on first glance as the 2nd Numbercruncher, who he beat 24L, went on to win a Hunter Chase at Fontwell. However Numbercruncher was knackered and he doesn't stay that far especially in soft ground. The favourite Monsieur Gibraltar unseated his jockey and the rest weren't up too much so for me that form is very suspect. He might hit the frame, but I think the only way he can win is if the other 3 main rivals all take each other on up front and set it up for a horse to come from behind.

I can't remember Jennie Candlish having a Hunter Chase runner before and it is slightly strange they are going down this route with Beeves given his owners don't want to have runners at Cheltenham and thus unless they have a change of heart he won't be seen in the Foxhunters'. He was in front of No Duffer at Uttoxeter when he was 3rd in May so on that running he has that one beat. He was then 2nd off 147 at Perth in June which was a very good effort. He was disappointing after that in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter. He returned at Kelso last month when 5th in a veterans' race. It was a reasonable return although I am suspect of the form. Granted the 2nd has one since, but Cultram Abbey's only Hunter Chase win came in a penalty kick at Perth and he was stuffed in the final at Sandown. Connections clearly think he is badly handicapped off 145 so it is a case of how much he has regressed as to if he is going to win this or not. The other thing to note is the other front runners in the race and will he have the legs to see off his younger rivals?

Beeves might be good enough to win this, but at 6/4 he has to be taken on. He might have needed that Kelso run, but there is also a chance he has regressed and we know both Now Ben and Road To Rome are in flying form at the moment. Given Marinero is the only other one I can give a chance to I think there is good value in backing both Now Ben and Road To Rome e/w in this. Road To Rome is clearly very progressive and it would not surprise me if he landed the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season after claiming the 1st last week. With the ground ideal for Now Ben he has to be backed as well as he looks over-priced to me. It would not surprise me if both ended up a fair bit shorter in the betting than they are now come race time.

Road To Rome 1.5pts e/w at 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor

Now Ben 1pt e/w at 9/1 with William Hill

[yossa6133]

Beeves was never really going at Kelso, I don't see him getting anywhere near his rating now. I missed the 8/1 that bet 365 opened on Road to Rome but I will be taking some 7/1 on the win.

 

Bollocks, missed the price, only 11/2 now.

Edited January 16, 2019 by yossa6133