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Ruby Walsh - Last fence saga continues


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Yesterday we saw Ruby Walsh come off two very well backed favourites at the final obstacle, all jockeys fall, all jockeys have bad days but i find it amazing the amount of times it seems to happen to him, the supposedly best national hunt jockey around.

A couple of years ago a study was performed by Kevin Blake and it proved that Walsh did indeed fall off his horses at the final fence far more times than any other leading rider, so what is the reason for this, any thoughts?

Does he take it too easy, being over confident as he is normally on the best horse. Does he give the horse too much to do so needs to ask for that extra big jump. Is it just plain old nerves, and he gets anxious as he approaches the last?

It becoming a big problem now and it must prey on his mind as he clears the second last without any problem and races down to the final fence.

Screen Shot 2018-11-11 at 09.47.30.png

As was the case when this analysis was first undertaken, the initial point of interest for many will be that Ruby has the highest fall/unseat rate (5.27%) of all the top riders examined. This is 26.1% higher than the average of 4.18% amongst the other nine riders examined and 5.8% higher than the overall fall/unseat rate of 4.98% amongst all the riders in Great Britain and Ireland.
To conclude, Ruby Walsh’s mounts have fallen or unseated him at the final obstacle at more than double the average rate of other top jockeys examined in this study since 2009. They fell or unseated him when in front at the final obstacle at a rate that is almost four times that of the average of the same top jockeys in the same period. These are indisputable facts which have been established from a substantial set of data.

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