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BillyHills

2018 Mexican Grand Prix

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Mexico GP (Sunday 7.10pm)

After a 3rd place result for Lewis Hamilton last week in Texas he now needs only 5 more points to clinch the World Championship for the fifth time. Basically he needs to seventh or higher in any one of the last three races.

Racing returned to Mexico in 2015 after a gap of 21 years so we have very little recent data to look at.
The front row has provided the winner in all 3 races since it came back but we have had three different winners. The Safety Car was used in the first two races but last year we just had the Virtual SC in operation.

Early betting suggests Ferrari will be fancied to gain another victory, maybe they think Hamilton will just make sure of a decent finish rather than risking everything in trying to win the race. I'm not sure about that but its true that the Brit does take his foot off the gas once the job has been completed. He never wins a race after wrapping up the title so thats something to bear in mind next time out.

Early value looks to be with last years winner Max Verstappen at around 7/2.

 

Stats:

Screen Shot 2018-10-24 at 11.04.57.png

 

:ok

 

 

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On 10/24/2018 at 11:55 AM, BillyHills said:

Early value looks to be with last years winner Max Verstappen at around 7/2.

 

The 7/2 about Max looks good now, he's a best priced 6/4 after qualifying on the front row alongside pole sitter Daniel Ricciardo. Red Bull are 4/9 to to win the race with either car but I don't think thats great value. If the straight line speed of Vettel or Hamilton is that much better then they will pass both RB's not just one of them.
Ricciardo at 2/1 is the obvious bet at this stage as he has a big advantage off pole. Hamilton wont want to be risking anything at turn 1 and Vettel has lost the plot.

In the 'Points' market its quite interesting, I reckon the top 8 places are booked for the Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercs and Renault cars. This leaves Sauber, Force India and maybe Alonso scrapping for the dregs. Perez is bad value on his home patch at 4/7, Ocon is 4/9, Leclerc is 4/7, Alonso is 8/11 this leaves Marcus Ericsson who is a massive 2/1??

Elsewhere its 4/9 for a Safety Car which doesn't inspire me while the spread of 16.5 finishers is big so it has to be under this week at 4/6.

Riccardo outright 2/1 Unibet
Under 16.5 Finishers 4/6 bet365
Erricsson Points finish 2/1 WH

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