MattA147 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Hi all, if I was to do some research into a given race. Say the Derby, what is the best way in determining what kind of horse it would take to win it? Is it just a case of reviewing past winners and trying to draw comparrisons? Is it distance and course? Should I use ratings to compare horses of different eras? I often read about trainers/owners saying that a horse “looks like a classics winner”. Can you get an indication in the paddock? Many thanks in advance for any help, suggestions and comments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alastair Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 (edited) Where you need to start is by asking yourself what particular attributes is the race in question likely to require. The Derby will usually be won by a horse that truly stays a mile and a half and with the speed to hold a good position with 3 to 4 furlongs to go ( last year's winner was an exception). The challenge with the Derby before the race is that it is highly unlikely that any of the runners will have competed previously in a strongly run 12 furlong race with a big field.So to discern whether a horse fits the bill requires a mixture of a more thoughtful analysis of its racecourse perfomances - it will usually have a good win percentage, have won at least at Listed race level, - and an analysis of its running style/pedigree. In truth it's not a race for the novice punter. On a more general point trying to establish whether a particular kind of horse wins a particular race will usually be most profitable for races that provide a test that horses only rarely meet : eg On Derby Day on the charge down the hill for the quickest race of the year the 5 furlong "Dash" handicap particularly suits horses with good form either over course and distance or at the sharp 5 furlongs at Goodwood. The final race at Royal Ascot - the Queen Alexandra stakes - the longest race of the year over 22 furlongs almost always goes to a horse that has already won over either the flat or jumps at a distance of 17 furlongs and has an Official Rating of at least 95 Edited April 3, 2018 by Alastair DanV89 and gbettle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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