How to understand what TYPE of horse wins a given race?

[MattA147]

Hi all, if I was to do some research into a given race. Say the Derby, what is the best way in determining what kind of horse it would take to win it? 

 

Is it just a case of reviewing past winners and trying to draw comparrisons? Is it distance and course? Should I use ratings to compare horses of different eras? I often read about trainers/owners saying that a horse “looks like a classics winner”. Can you get an indication in the paddock?

 

Many thanks in advance for any help, suggestions and comments.  

[Alastair]

Where you need to start is by asking yourself what particular attributes is the race in question likely to require.

The Derby will usually be won by a horse that truly stays a mile and a half and with the speed to hold a good position with 3 to 4 furlongs to go ( last year's winner was an exception). The challenge with the Derby before the race is that it is highly unlikely that any of the runners will have competed previously in a strongly run 12 furlong race with a big field.So to discern whether a horse fits the bill requires a mixture of a more thoughtful analysis of its racecourse perfomances - it will usually have a good win percentage, have won at least at Listed race level, - and an analysis of its running style/pedigree. In truth it's not a race for the novice punter.

On a more general point trying to establish whether a particular kind of horse wins a particular  race will usually be most profitable for races that provide a test that horses only rarely meet : eg

On Derby Day on the charge down the hill for the quickest race of the year the 5 furlong "Dash" handicap particularly suits horses with good form either over course and distance or at the sharp 5 furlongs at Goodwood.

The final race at Royal Ascot - the Queen Alexandra stakes - the longest race of the year over 22 furlongs almost always goes to a horse that has already won over either the flat or jumps at a distance of 17 furlongs and has an Official Rating of at least 95

 

 

Edited April 3, 2018 by Alastair