7 furlong angles

[captainlucky]

Hi everyone, 

I commented on a thread a few days ago about whether specialising in sprints was a good idea, and the subject of 7 furlong races came up (asking if they're classed as sprints). I said I'd post something if I found any merit in a 7 furlong system. It's a specialist distance and because it's such a specialist trip I thought we could find some good things from it. 

So could be haphazard but he's what I decided to do and what I found out...

With the theory of some people are better at their job than others I decided to look at trainers in profit over the last four years at 7 furlongs (flat turf only) and only took runners that had 2 or more races in the last 90 days, as a fitness precaution really.

Paul Cole: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 21.95%, PL +36.75

Luca Cumani: BETS 29, WINS 7, SR 24.14%, PL +8.26

David Loughnane: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 18.37%, PL +50

Gary Moss: BETS 22, WINS 6, SR 27.27%, PL +22.88

Martin Smith: BETS 18, WINS 5, SR 27.78, PL +93

Mark Walford: BETS 21, WINS 5, SR 23.81, PL +21.25

And the four years combining every trainers runner under those rules were

2017: BETS 54, WINS 13, SR 24.07%, PL +56.5

2016: BETS 56, WINS 11, SR 19.64%, PL +98.25

2015: BETS 35, WINS 9, SR 25.71%, PL +26.26

2014: BETS 35, WINS 8, SR 22.86%, PL +51.13

 

As I say this could turn out to be haphazard, maybe the trainers style of preparing horses suits the 7 furlong runners, or perhaps they are just better at understanding it's a specialist distance and what it takes to win at it. I will continue to add to this thread through the flat season and see where it takes us.

[Alastair]

 I appreciate you will have done a fair bit of research for this, and others will have their views, but the rate of profitability with a profit of 232 from stakes of 180 for a rate of profit of just under 130% looks unsustainably high and suggests that this might just be a case of backfitting past results to produce a desired result.

You might like to look at my post regarding rates of return on betting.

Anyway good luck if you are pursuing this.