Grex's SAM System - 124 bets -1% yield

[Grex]

I have been around on this Forum for a long time – and have published various systems with varying degrees of success 

Previously, I have usually tried to develop my own statistical system for predicting the results of matches. However, this system is different in that it “piggy-backs” on the predictions of SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) – developed by Ian McHale, a professor at the University of Liverpool. The predictions apply only to the English Premier League. As SAM’s predictions are published on the BBC website, I hope that I am not infringing any copyright rules by using them.

Basically, my system takes SAM’s predictions for 1-X-2 and compares the projected probability with published odds on Bet365 in order to calculate odds “value”. Then, by applying cut-off limits to the “value” and to the odds themselves, the system selects games on which to bet 1-X-2.

SAM also predicts the most likely score-lines, and I have included these in the system as a test.

I have followed the system for a very limited number of games in the EPL this season – there are gaps in the coverage, when I failed to get access to SAM’s predictions. The performance is good, but obviously with limited data.

The table below shows the results to date, and the selections for Saturday’s games. I stress that this is still very much in the testing phase, and I recommend that nobody risks their hard cash until the system demonstrates profit (if any) over a longer period.

I will update the table after Saturday’s games, and include selections for the games to be played on Sunday and Monday (SAM’s predictions are not yet available).

Wish me luck 

Edited April 30, 2018 by Grex

[harry_rag]

Good luck. Have been struck by a sense of deja vu, have you posted a similar system before, or proposed doing it?