Odds jump freakishly: bet with it or against it?

[allthethings]

My question is just about your general feel for this situation, which I’ve seen twice in the past two days, and I’m wondering also whether there’s a good database that backs up one or the other strategy.

Okay, Sunday. I’m a fan of backing underdogs, and I’m a big fan of Sweden’s Div 1 (the third league). Enskede, a side that have been just demolished this season in general and this month in particular, are home to Assyriska, which not long ago were in Superettan. Enskede are about 3.5, but my book doesn’t have odds until about half an hour before the match, and then only briefly. I watch the average odds go to about 5.00 on Bet Explorer, and I miss it. Meanwhile the odds on +0.5, which don’t disappear, go from +2.02 to 3.05, but the book never changes it to +0.75 or +1. I take +0.5 at about 3.0, giving up that they’ll post up the 5.0 ever. Final score Enskede 3-0.

Today. I’m kind of liking Helmond away at Jong AZ, a side I think don’t rate that highly. Helmond are having an awful season though; they’re priced about 4.05. Suddenly, half an hour before the match, odds shoot up until Helmond are about 4.85. I briefly consider it, but pass. Final score AZ 1-3 Helmond.

So...those could have gone either way, right? In each case there was something speaking for the dog...Enskede at home with Assyriska unmotivated as the season winds down. Helmond not as bad as they’ve shown early. Just my take. But in both cases the market just went crazy for the favorites, to the point that I wondered if they were reacting...overreacting...to some bit of news I didn’t know.

Thoughts? Thanks.

[Matthew]

It seems to me that you have a good feel for which way to go on these. Keep watching and keep tracking the results.

If a small league the books might be reacting to bets in the market on the opposite team. They can't be looking for much business if not offering odds until 30mins before kick off.