LegendMon Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Hello, Welcome to my new system, focusing on what I believe to be an underrated market: the Win to Nil. It's something that interests me because there's often not much value in betting large favourites, especially if they play at home. The price boost that's on offer by also including a clean sheet, is what I'll attempt to profit from. I'm using a similiar method used in my previous system: a mixture of my own (tweaked) ratings based on all results (home, away, and recent form); then combining those chances of winning with the chance of keeping a clean sheet. By looking at past results, I have a rough idea on what Win to Nil "rating" is required for the league I have ready (Swedish Allsvenskan). More leagues will be added along the way. This is a paper trial, betting 1pt each game. I do not recommend betting money. I will track only profit/loss. To kick things off, here's the first game that has been identified: Bet 1: Sat 29th July/ GIF Sundsvall vs. Malmö / 1pt @ 2.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted July 25, 2017 Author Share Posted July 25, 2017 +Swedish Superettan. Bet 2: Sat 29th July / Brommapojkarna vs. Frej / 1pt @ 2.20 Interestingly, for this game, the system has given Brommapojkarna a 63% chance of winning to nil. This is 1.58 converted to odds, so to get 2.20 represents some good value according to my ratings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 +Brazilian Serie A No games are suitable, however. Another interesting case study from the next game round: Palmeiras vs. Avai. The home team are huge favourites according to the odds (1.26), but my system gives them "only" a 50% chance of winning (2.00), and an even lower chance of winning to nil (25%, 4.00). The away team lie in the relegation spots, but have been in tremendous form recently. This just goes to show that mindlessly betting on favourites, and/or combining them with Win to Nil, is not a viable plan. Will keep an eye out on this result over the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted July 31, 2017 Author Share Posted July 31, 2017 Bet 1: Bet 2: Total Staked: 2pts / Total Return: 2.5pts / Profit: +0.5pts Brommapojkarna, in the Swedish Superettan, just provided the biggest shock result over the last three seasons (according by my stats) by losing at home to Frej (0-1). It was a Win to Nil, but for the wrong team. Malmö, in the Swedish Allsvenskan, gave me a winning start by beating Sundsvall away from home with some nice odds. Finally: Palmeiras went against my system and beat Avai at home by 2-0 (no bet was placed). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 2, 2017 Author Share Posted August 2, 2017 Bet 3: Sun 6th August / Åtvidabergs vs. Dalkurd / 1pt @ 3.10 Bet 4: Mon 7th August / Norrköping vs. AFC Eskilstuna / 1pt @ 2.30 Just the one game from each of the Swedish leagues, and none from the Brazilian league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 2, 2017 Author Share Posted August 2, 2017 Misread the data, and there is one game for the Brazilian Serie A that applies to the system, so to that end: Bet 5: Thu 3rd August / Atletico Mineiro vs. Corinthians / 1pt @ 5.00 Such huge odds for the team who are top of the league (unbeaten) against a team that are mid-table. Let's see how it goes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 7, 2017 Author Share Posted August 7, 2017 Bet 3: Bet 4: Pending Bet 5: In Bet 3, Åtvidabergs scored a consolation goal in injury time to prevent that bet from winning (score 1-4). This is something that concerns me with the statistics, and is actually quite common. The team with a large rating ends up winning by many goals, but also somehow also concedes late on. Probably because the game is wrapped up and they lose concentration, In Bet 5, though, Corinthians won 2-0 to bring home the large odds of 5.0. Will post a summary of profit/loss after the game tonight, and take a look of the next round of games. LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 good luck legendmon LegendMon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 8, 2017 Author Share Posted August 8, 2017 Thank you, @twinny Bet 4: 87' goal, but I'll take it! Quite a good start for this strategy/system, but I'm under no illusion that it's perfect or consistent long-term. Will be interesting to see how things progress. Total Staked: 5pts / Total Return: 9.8pts / Profit: +4.8pts Bet 6: Wed 9th August / Dalkurd vs. Frej / 1pt @ 2.10 Just this one bet for now. Malmö vs. Kalmar came close, but with Kalmar winning their last three games in a row, the system didn't show up a strong enough rating for Malmö winning to nil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 10, 2017 Author Share Posted August 10, 2017 Bet 6: Total Staked: 6pts / Total Return: 9.8pts / Profit: +3.8pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 11, 2017 Author Share Posted August 11, 2017 Bet 7: Mon 14th August / Botafogo vs. Gremio / 1pt @ 3.75 Bet 8: Sun 13th August / AIK vs. AFC Eskilstuna / 1pt @ 1.83 Bet 9: Sat 12th August / Östers vs. Gefle / 1pt @ TBC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 11, 2017 Author Share Posted August 11, 2017 Odds are now available for the Östers vs. Gefle game. They are @ 2.87. Didn't want to edit the post, in case of being accused after after-eventing. Will be back after these games. Let's hope they come through! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 14, 2017 Author Share Posted August 14, 2017 Bet 7: Bet 8: Bet 9: All three bets go down, but still there is a positive balance. Onwards and upwards! Total Staked: 9pts / Total Return: 9.8pts / Profit: +0.8pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 17, 2017 Author Share Posted August 17, 2017 Bet 10: Sat 19th August / AFC Eskilstuna vs. Malmö / 1pt @ 2.10 Somewhat of a pattern forming in Sweden, it seems. There are many 'near' bets available from the other leagues as well, but the confidence level was lower than it should be to make the bet. Best example is Norrby vs. Dalkurd in the Superettan, where the away team should be winning to nil more than average, but the home team have been in good form recently. I've added these leagues, and they will start identifying bets after 6 league games. +Italy1 +France1 +Spain1 +England1 +England 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 21, 2017 Author Share Posted August 21, 2017 Bet 10: Well, that was a disaster for both Malmö (top of the league losing against bottom), and also the system. Total Staked: 10pts / Total Return: 9.8pts / Loss: -0.2pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 23, 2017 Author Share Posted August 23, 2017 Bet 11: Thu 24th August / Chapecoense vs. Corinthians / 1pt @ 4.33 Bet 12: Sat 26th August / Dalkurd vs. Orygtye / 1pt @ 2.10 Bet 13: Sun 27th August / Malmö vs. Göteborg / 1pt @ 2.75 Some very surprising matches for the next game round! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 Bet 11: Bet 12: Bet 13: The Brazilian league, and Corinthians, strike again! Might have to look into the Swedish leagues and tighten the criteria somewhat. Those leagues seem to be high on goals and very inconsistent. Either way, back in profit land. Total Staked: 13pts / Total Return: 14.13pts / Profit: +1.13pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just the one game showing up for the next round of games. Bet 14: Mon 11th September / Trelleborgs vs. GAIS / 1pt @ 3.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 What would your PnL be if you just backed the win ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 11, 2017 Author Share Posted September 11, 2017 Hi, Curly One. I'm afraid I didn't keep track of just backing the win. But I went through them now using the average odds (taken from Soccer Stats) and it's coming out as a loss of 2.76pts - which is understandable, since the winning odds (1X2) are generally much lower than the Win to Nil odds. Backing the straight win had a little more success, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 12, 2017 Author Share Posted September 12, 2017 Bet 14: Total Staked: 14pts / Total Return: 17.23pts / Profit: +3.23pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 12, 2017 Author Share Posted September 12, 2017 Championship games are starting to provide predictions! Bet 15: Tue 12th September / Leeds vs. Birmingham / @ 2.75 Bet 16: Tue 12th September / Norwich vs. Burton / @ 2.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 13, 2017 Author Share Posted September 13, 2017 Bet 15: Bet 16: Total Staked: 16pts / Total Return: 19.98pts / Profit: +3.98pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 14, 2017 Author Share Posted September 14, 2017 Bet 17: Sat 16th September / Ipswich vs. Bolton / 1pt @ 3.25 Bet 18: Sat 16th September / Sheffield Utd vs. Norwich / 1pt @ 4.75 Bet 19: Sun 17th September /Gremio vs. Chapecoencse / 1pt @ (TBC) Bet 20: Sun 17th September / Norrby vs. Brommapojkarna / 1pt @ 3.00 I'm so surprised about the Sheffield Utd prediction, I would never have thought that just by looking at it on paper. I'm skeptical, of course, but will keep to the criteria I have set and see what happens. No odds for Brazil, but will post nearer the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 I meant to use the emoticon before, obviously! Gremio were @ 2.50. Bet 17: Bet 18: Bet 19: Bet 20: Bets 18, 19 and 20 were all win-to-nil, just for the wrong teams! Despite that, we're still in profit. Total Staked: 20pts / Total Return: 23.23pts / Profit: +3.23pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 19, 2017 Author Share Posted September 19, 2017 One game for tonight, representing the largest odds so far! Bet 21: Tue 19th September / Norrköping vs. Häcken / 1pt @ 6.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 Bet 21: Total Staked: 21pts / Total Return: 23.23pts / Profit: +2.23pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 22, 2017 Author Share Posted September 22, 2017 Bet 22: Sat 23rd September / Brommapojkarna vs. Åtvidabergs / 1pt @ 2.10 Bet 23: Sat 23rd September / Halmstad vs. Norrköping / 1pt @ 3.50 Bet 24: Sat 23rd September / Derby vs. Birmingham / 1pt @ 2.87 Bet 25: Sat 23rd September / Lyon vs. Dijon / 1pt @ 2.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 25, 2017 Author Share Posted September 25, 2017 Bet 22/23/24/25: Total Staked: 25pts / Total Return: 23.23pts / Loss: -1.77pts Nightmare weekend; not even one of them was close, and dipping back down into the red. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted September 28, 2017 Author Share Posted September 28, 2017 Bet 26: Fri 29th September / Monaco vs. Montpellier / 1pt @ 2.20 Bet 27: Sat 30th September / Aston Villa vs. Bolton / 1pt @ 2.10 Bet 28: Sat 30th September / Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace / 1pt @ 1.61 Bet 29: Sat 30th September / Sevilla vs. Malaga / 1pt @ 2.25 Bet 30: Sun 1st October / Barcelona vs. Las Palmas / 1pt @ 1.95 Bet 31: Sun 1st October / Malmö vs. Halmstad / 1pt @ 1.80 Bet 32: Sun 1st October / Dalkurd vs. Syrianska / 1pt @ 2.05 Should be an interesting weekend of football! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.