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Win to Nil / An Underrated Market


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Hello,

Welcome to my new system, focusing on what I believe to be an underrated market: the Win to Nil. It's something that interests me because there's often not much value in betting large favourites, especially if they play at home. The price boost that's on offer by also including a clean sheet, is what I'll attempt to profit from.

I'm using a similiar method used in my previous system: a mixture of my own (tweaked) ratings based on all results (home, away, and recent form); then combining those chances of winning with the chance of keeping a clean sheet. By looking at past results, I have a rough idea on what Win to Nil "rating" is required for the league I have ready (Swedish Allsvenskan). More leagues will be added along the way.

This is a paper trial, betting 1pt each game. I do not recommend betting money. I will track only profit/loss. 

To kick things off, here's the first game that has been identified:

Bet 1: Sat 29th July/ GIF Sundsvall vs. Malmö / 1pt @ 2.50

:hope

 

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+Swedish Superettan.

Bet 2: Sat 29th July / Brommapojkarna vs. Frej / 1pt @ 2.20

Interestingly, for this game, the system has given Brommapojkarna a 63% chance of winning to nil. This is 1.58 converted to odds, so to get 2.20 represents some good value according to my ratings.

:hope

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+Brazilian Serie A

No games are suitable, however. Another interesting case study from the next game round: Palmeiras vs. Avai. The home team are huge favourites according to the odds (1.26), but my system gives them "only" a 50% chance of winning (2.00), and an even lower chance of winning to nil (25%, 4.00). The away team lie in the relegation spots, but have been in tremendous form recently.

This just goes to show that mindlessly betting on favourites, and/or combining them with Win to Nil, is not a viable plan. Will keep an eye out on this result over the weekend.

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Bet 1: :ok

Bet 2: :@

Total Staked: 2pts / Total Return: 2.5pts / Profit: +0.5pts

Brommapojkarna, in the Swedish Superettan, just provided the biggest shock result over the last three seasons (according by my stats) by losing at home to Frej (0-1). It was a Win to Nil, but for the wrong team. Malmö, in the Swedish Allsvenskan, gave me a winning start by beating Sundsvall away from home with some nice odds. Finally: Palmeiras went against my system and beat Avai at home by 2-0 (no bet was placed).

 

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Misread the data, and there is one game for the Brazilian Serie A that applies to the system, so to that end:

Bet 5: Thu 3rd August / Atletico Mineiro vs. Corinthians / 1pt @ 5.00

Such huge odds for the team who are top of the league (unbeaten) against a team that are mid-table. Let's see how it goes!

:hope

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Bet 3: :@ 

Bet 4: Pending

Bet 5: :ok

In Bet 3, Åtvidabergs scored a consolation goal in injury time to prevent that bet from winning (score 1-4). This is something that concerns me with the statistics, and is actually quite common. The team with a large rating ends up winning by many goals, but also somehow also concedes late on. Probably because the game is wrapped up and they lose concentration, 

In Bet 5, though, Corinthians won 2-0 to bring home the large odds of 5.0.

Will post a summary of profit/loss after the game tonight, and take a look of the next round of games.

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Thank you, @twinny

Bet 4: :ok

87' goal, but I'll take it! Quite a good start for this strategy/system, but I'm under no illusion that it's perfect or consistent long-term. Will be interesting to see how things progress.

Total Staked: 5pts / Total Return: 9.8pts / Profit: +4.8pts

Bet 6: Wed 9th August / Dalkurd vs. Frej / 1pt @ 2.10

Just this one bet for now. Malmö vs. Kalmar came close, but with Kalmar winning their last three games in a row, the system didn't show up a strong enough rating for Malmö winning to nil.

:hope

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Bet 10: Sat 19th August / AFC Eskilstuna vs. Malmö / 1pt @ 2.10

Somewhat of a pattern forming in Sweden, it seems. There are many 'near' bets available from the other leagues as well, but the confidence level was lower than it should be to make the bet. Best example is Norrby vs. Dalkurd in the Superettan, where the away team should be winning to nil more than average, but the home team have been in good form recently.

I've added these leagues, and they will start identifying bets after 6 league games.

+Italy1

+France1

+Spain1

+England1

+England 2

:hope

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Bet 11: :ok

Bet 12: :@

Bet 13: :@

The Brazilian league, and Corinthians, strike again! Might have to look into the Swedish leagues and tighten the criteria somewhat. Those leagues seem to be high on goals and very inconsistent. Either way, back in profit land.

Total Staked: 13pts / Total Return: 14.13pts / Profit: +1.13pts

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hi, Curly One. I'm afraid I didn't keep track of just backing the win. But I went through them now using the average odds (taken from Soccer Stats) and it's coming out as a loss of 2.76pts - which is understandable, since the winning odds (1X2) are generally much lower than the Win to Nil odds. Backing the straight win had a little more success, though.

 

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Bet 17: Sat 16th September / Ipswich vs. Bolton / 1pt @ 3.25

Bet 18: Sat 16th September / Sheffield Utd vs. Norwich / 1pt @ 4.75

Bet 19: Sun 17th September /Gremio vs. Chapecoencse / 1pt @ (TBC)

Bet 20: Sun 17th September / Norrby vs. Brommapojkarna / 1pt @ 3.00

I'm so surprised about the Sheffield Utd prediction, I would never have thought that just by looking at it on paper. I'm skeptical, of course, but will keep to the criteria I have set and see what happens. No odds for Brazil, but will post nearer the time.

:@

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I meant to use the :hope emoticon before, obviously! Gremio were @ 2.50.

Bet 17: :ok

Bet 18: :@

Bet 19: :@

Bet 20: :@

Bets 18, 19 and 20 were all win-to-nil, just for the wrong teams! Despite that, we're still in profit.

Total Staked: 20pts / Total Return: 23.23pts / Profit: +3.23pts

 

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Bet 26: Fri 29th September / Monaco vs. Montpellier / 1pt @ 2.20

Bet 27: Sat 30th September / Aston Villa vs. Bolton / 1pt @ 2.10

Bet 28: Sat 30th September / Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace / 1pt @ 1.61

Bet 29: Sat 30th September / Sevilla vs. Malaga / 1pt @ 2.25

Bet 30: Sun 1st October  / Barcelona vs. Las Palmas / 1pt @ 1.95

Bet 31: Sun 1st October  / Malmö vs. Halmstad / 1pt @ 1.80

Bet 32: Sun 1st October  / Dalkurd vs. Syrianska / 1pt @ 2.05

Should be an interesting weekend of football!

:hope

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