BillyHills Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Previous Winners Trends 9/10 Winners won at least two races 9/10 Winners won over 7f or a mile. 9/10 Winners won a Listed level or above. 7/10 Winners won last time out. 6/10 Winners were Irish bred 6/10 Winners had won at Newmarket. 6/10 Winners had a at least one run that season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Looks quite an open contest in my mind and 2/1 for Rhododendron is not a particularly appealing price in my book. Quite a lot of these share form one way or the other, particularly the Irish raiders. Big market mover in recent days was AOB's Winter, and you can easily see why. Big run in the 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown recently. Had to go wide throughout and still nearly beat Hydrangea who had the run of the race from the front and looked fully wound up for the contest. The form has been franked in no uncertain terms by third placed Rehana who was impressive in the G3 Athasi Stakes subsequently. IMO this piece of form, the Leopardstown Trial, is the key piece of form. In saying that the filly that came fourth that day is of most interest to me. Intricately providing young Joseph his first Classic winner? What a story that would be. She is 18/1 still, which is a massive price! She was clearly in the Leopardstown race to get a run under her belt, she was off the pace which wasn't ideal too and yet finished less than 2l beaten without getting a hard ride at all. Lest we forget, Intricately is already a Group 1 winner! She beat Hyrrangea in a tight finish in the Moyglare last season - Rhododendron more nearly two lengths back in third. She looks to me a filly that definitely is crying out for the step up in trip, though she was disappointing in her sole try over 1m at Santa Anita - but at the end of a long season, so you can make excuses for that. The likely fast ground on Sunday is a slight worry I admit, but at 18's I think that a risk worth to take. Intricately @ 18/1 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 Final decs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 6, 2017 Author Share Posted May 6, 2017 Ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 6, 2017 Author Share Posted May 6, 2017 Very open renewal and any of about half a dozen could win it and you wouldn't be surprised. The O'Brien trio all have chances and are priced up on jockey bookings, personally I don't think there is much between the three so on that basis Hydrangea is a value bet if nothing else. I like the Gosden filly who won the Nell Gwyn and also I heard JIm Crowley talking up the chances of Talaayeb the other day, he sounded really confident but in saying that he was the same about Eminent and he didn't deliver did he. Fair Eva is interesting despite being well beaten at odds on on her last two starts. She was really impressive early on last season and if she returns in the same frame of mind after a break she could yet land a big race. Fair Eva 6/1 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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