Racing Chat - Tuesday April 25th

[BillyHills]

150 Hexham

Storm Forecast NAP 5/4 Bet365
Malcolm Jefferson and Brian Hughes team up here, they are the top trainer/jockey combo at the track and this one ran well last time out over C/D. Had been off twelve months prior to that and he should open his account over hurdles here. Top weight Applaus looks the danger but he has to give away 6lbs and that just may prove too much.

[robertob]

4.25 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Favourite Wurood looks a skinny price and certainly one to take on at the top of the weights against the boys at the back of a visually fine looking maiden win at Wolverhampton, where, however, she was most likely flattered given she had the run of the race from the front.

I'm much more keen on the equally lightly raced Derek Duval. This son of Lope De Vega was a very late fool and should be open to a good deal of improvement now as a three year old, even more so stepping up to 7 furlongs for the first time.

On his seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton over 6f last month he got off the mark which was only his second career start. He stayed on nicely to win by a close margin, though he was good for more.

On handicap debut a fortnight later he pulled hard in the early stages of the race and was subsequently disadvantaged by his position at the back of the field where he was also forced to race wide. Still he came with a storming run on the outside to finish a close third in the end.

It's seems obvious that an additional furlong can only be a positive and a 2lb rise in the mark with further natural improvement to come might underestimate Derek Duval, as long as he acts on fast ground turf.

Selection:
10pts win - Derek Duval @ 7/1 Bet365

.......

6.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 1f 103y

Top weight London Master is a full-brother to relatively smart Irish filly Booker good sire by Mastercraftsman. This lightly raced, though winless maiden, has a pretty good chance to can improve this season as a three year old.

In 2016 he had three obligatory maiden runs without setting the world alight -  he was clearly ridden with the future in mind, nonetheless his RPR's were quite in line with the opening handicap he received for those performances.

And that might ensure he's potentially well handicapped now moving into Handicap company for the very first time. That is because this colt is quite good looking, with a big, scopey frame to fill, and he step ups in trip which should very much suit given his mother was a winner over 10 furlongs.

He was a January fool, so at this stage as a three year old, also taking the visual impression from last season into account, he should be definitely ready to use his strengths (and hopefully class) to exploit a rating of 60.

Interestingly Jockey Adam Beschizza makes the journey to Wolverhampton for this one ride - probably not for a leisure spin around the track. 

Selection:
10pts win: London Master @ 11/2 Bet365

[arsenalfh]

Preview - Punchestown Day 1

I'm against the leaders in the market in the handicap hurdle at 4.55 as Roconga looks the type to be overbet being a very good flat horse. I tend to stay away from Martin horses and he has a horrible record here (0.57 Betfair actual/expected from a decent sample) so I can take on Tudor City while Veinard is a bridle horse. Light That is interesting with Harrington in top form but he's a poor flat horse so I have doubts about his raw ability and was smashed in his last two handicap hurdle runs. Doesn't look well handicapped so that leaves Pique Sous for Mullins who looks worth taking a chance on at a big price.

I reckon Disko is a massive lay in the Grade 1 Novice Chase. Those intermediate distance to staying novice chasers kept beating each other earlier in the season and the JLT isn't working out so I'm not sure he's that good and I think Our Duke improved a ton when winning the Irish Grand National. Meade has a woeful 3% strike rate from 167 runners at 0.44 Betfair actual/expected at Punchestown too. Against Anibale Fly for similar reasons, while Acapella Bourgeois needs it soft, Alpha Des Obeaux has serious bleeding problems, A Genie In A Bottle is another trained by Meade and Velocity Boy isn't good enough. Process of elimination leaves A Toi Phil who is actually probably not far off Disko at his best winning two Grade 2 chases comfortably and also a big handicap at Leopardstown in January. Very patchy but I'm confident he's a good bet in this market.

4.55 Punchestown - Pique Sous @ 14/1 BetVictor

6.40 Punchestown - A Toi Phil @ 20/1 Boylesports

Edited April 25, 2017 by arsenalfh