AFL Rd. 14

[TazaD]

Collingwood +14.5 Not convinced about Port being 'back'. Their last 3 wins have been against poorly performing defenses, and even given that they beat the Dogs at home by just 15 and although they beat St. Kilda by 23, they had 10 less inside 50's and 2 less shots. They've relied on efficient conversion up forward to win, but Collingwood's backline is far better than the last 3 Port have faced. Collingwood's form has been better, only a loss to a strong Melbourne, and last week they had 11 more inside 50's and 4 more shots than Sydney. Port have lost their last 3 games at the dome by 92, 40 and 56 points, all as ~1.50 favs! Collingwood have lost only 1 of their last 7 indoors by more than this, inc. 2 strong performances this year v. Geelong and Adelaide. Although Port won this meeting by 37 points last year (MCG), Collingwood had 1 more inside 40 and 2 less shots, so the game was much closer than the final score suggests...Also in that game Tarrant was goalless, and Preti and Wakelin were both out for the 'Pies!! Really can't see Collingwood getting blown away here.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 Geelong -24.5 I said recently that I think Geelong are over-rated, but I think now the spread on this game is too low due to their recent 'poor' performances. Bad kicking v. Freo, 13 more inside 50's v. Collingwood, and low scores against the leagues best defense (Adelaide) and in rain in Brisbane coming back to somewhere near their best form. Hawthorn, on the other hand, have started to slide. 4 straight losses, all by 22+. Their goals have dropped right off, and they have allowed a goal every 2.86 entries into their 50!! If Geelong can score on anyone, it's this Hawthorn team. Geelong have won 9 of their last 10 at the dome, 7 by more than 29+, and they have won the past 3 meetings by 34, 56 and 65 points. Hodge out of the Hawthorn team will be a big loss, and I reckon Geelong will bounce back with a decent win here.

[JohnZA]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 The bet of the round surely must be Richmond :ok 2.20 with centrebet They are playing on saturday at the 'G' where the tigers prefer playing. There will be plenty of rain by then so should make both teams even I reckon. My other bets: Cats will smash the hawks Adelaide to see off an unpredictable Freo with no Ding Dong (Bell) Saints to bounce back with Hamill (very important player) and Koscitzke back Bombers with Fletcher back will overcome the shinboner spirit from arden st Just need to decide what doubles, trebles i'll do incase one of them doesnt come up but I highly doubt it :hope

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 Just like they were 'must bets' last round, John? :unsure Richmond on a 4 game losing streak, and although on the surface they play well at the MCG, wins over Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Freo hardly inspire. They still haven't beaten a team in the top 8. Sydney sitting 5th, 3rd best defense and a forward line that is up and firing...Also Williams' 300th so they'll be nice and fired up. Sydney won 3 of the last 4 meetings by an av. of over 30 points, inc. the last 2 at the MCG. Richo will certainly be better for the 2 week break, but any rain about will nullify his influence. Anyway....If you're still keen, they're 2.35 @ Pinnacle :ok Adelaide -24.5 McPharlin back...but now Bell out for the Dockers! Got no problems at all going against them here. They're about the worst team in the comp right now, coming up against one of the best. Just have to hope they don't put on a 8.15 or 9.17 performance...but given the Dockers have been allowing a shot every 1.63 entries into their 50 in their last 5 games, and the Crows are averaging a massive 13.8 more inside 50's per game than their opponent, then it really shouldn't matter!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 Hope you don't mind me dropping in to say hello. Not much wet form to go on this year but I'd imagine Sydney would be suited these days. They are a low possesion team who love it in and under and have excellent wet trackers in Bolton and Fosdike returning. IMO, don't know about the 1.68 as clear value but -7.5 could be worth a shot. Don't forget Richmond had three carrying groin injuries (?-Richo) last start and if they havn't fully recovered, wet conditions are usually considered harsh on that type of injury. I've been set all week to try Hawthorn. No S.Johnson, Ottens, Playfair leaves them thin forward and now Haynes is out. Hawthorn havn't faired much better though. I havn't sacked the bet altogether yet. For future reference it does reduce this to a C-Grade match. Freo was the other one I did like but they haven't the ins I thought they might. Brisbane are false faves IMO. All C-Grade oponents last three. A full strength Melbourne is seriously A-Grade. Good luck to all. I hope I'm not stuffing anyones bets.

[JohnZA]

Re: AFL Rd. 14

Just like they were 'must bets' last round, John? :unsure Richmond on a 4 game losing streak, and although on the surface they play well at the MCG, wins over Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Freo hardly inspire. They still haven't beaten a team in the top 8. Sydney sitting 5th, 3rd best defense and a forward line that is up and firing...Also Williams' 300th so they'll be nice and fired up. Sydney won 3 of the last 4 meetings by an av. of over 30 points, inc. the last 2 at the MCG. Richo will certainly be better for the 2 week break, but any rain about will nullify his influence. Anyway....If you're still keen, they're 2.35 @ Pinnacle :ok

Here's an interesting stat when both the tigers and swans play in the wet the last 3 seasons: Tigers have played 10 with 6 wins (60% strike rate) Swans have played 12 with only 4 wins (33.3% strike rate) info taken from following web site, http://www.prowess.com.au/pro-stats/formguide.pdf

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 Dude, you're trying to convince yourself, not us ;) Good to see you about, Ashtee. You're doing a great job with the 'dogs so far, hopefully Melbourne can come through as well. Still not convinced they are that A- team yet, think the next 6 weeks will tell us alot. Anyway, bring on the Pies.......

[JohnZA]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 there's been a big plunge on the tigers and it wasnt me :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 Well done with the Pies Taza. Something I feel about this week is the four teams who played last week go in with that advantage, in my way of thinking. Was thinking of putting punting dicipline aside for a little quadi on them at over 12.00. With Melbourne, whilst no proven powerhouse, at full strength they should come out classes above what Brisbane have faced lately. Brisbane beat the three weakest teams in the comp IMO. I include Geelong in that because hit with injuries they clearly played as demoralised side, in my view.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 Yeah, nice save John, but editting after the event is immature and just plain wrong. I saw what you had written, and I guess a few others did too. Sorry mate, but we're not going to stand for that kind of behaviour here, if it happens again you'll be banned. :\

[JohnZA]

Re: AFL Rd. 14

Yeah, nice save John, but editting after the event is immature and just plain wrong. I saw what you had written, and I guess a few others did too. Sorry mate, but we're not going to stand for that kind of behaviour here, if it happens again you'll be banned. :\

Ok sorry about that, was just a sh!t stir and wont happen again. On a serious note: Richmond - Essendon double at 3.87 get on :ok i'm off to the 'G' now then the 'Dome' if the first leg comes in :cheers

[JohnZA]

Re: AFL Rd. 14

The bet of the round surely must be Richmond :ok 2.20 with centrebet

Yep I guess we've beaten someone in the 8 now :loon Got my money back with the Richmond win after friday nights debacle with port letting me down. Was hoping with a profit when I had a double going with the bombers but they let me down. Now i'm looking for a profit with the sunday treble Adelaide-Geelong-StKilda 2.26 with Centrebet, nailed on :ok

[AJ]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 I've taken a small nibble on Geelong -26.5, @1.9. think they are much better team

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14

Yep I guess we've beaten someone in the 8 now :loon

That wasn't a win, John, it was a gift. 21 free kicks to 11 at 3/4 time, including possibly THE worst (most bizarre?) free I've ever seen. (The Stafford free-kick that was given 20 seconds late, presumably after an umpire saw the retaliation on the big screen??). Then to have Crouch miss the lot from 30 out late in the 4th, very, very lucky win. Stupid Adealide, blowing a big lead with a 6 goal to 1 last 1/4. Painful to watch. How about Brisbane? Ominous stuff. I said I didn't didn't really rate Melbourne, but no-one could have expected a result like that! The Bulldogs/St. Kilda game was the best I've seen for a long time, but it will almost certainly take it's toll on them both next week. Both teams were physically spent in the last 1/4. Dogs have to back up in Perth v. a Freo team that should get some top players back...could get nasty. :\

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 Adelaide 58 insdie 50's to Freo's 38....6 extra shits for a 6 point win...****ing annoying that! :@

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 Thats freemanlte, the pricks:@

[JohnZA]

Re: AFL Rd. 14

That wasn't a win, John, it was a gift. 21 free kicks to 11 at 3/4 time, including possibly THE worst (most bizarre?) free I've ever seen. (The Stafford free-kick that was given 20 seconds late, presumably after an umpire saw the retaliation on the big screen??). Then to have Crouch miss the lot from 30 out late in the 4th, very, very lucky win.

It was never in dought mate :ok We were up by 45pts towards the end of the 3rd quarter. We decided to defend by having players dropping back. Paul Roos even said we deserved to win. ps. my value bet for next round is the KANGAROOS to beat the W.C Eagles, i expect their odds to be around the 2.3-2.5 mark.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14

It was never in dought mate :ok We were up by 45pts towards the end of the 3rd quarter. We decided to defend by having players dropping back. Paul Roos even said we deserved to win. ps. my value bet for next round is the KANGAROOS to beat the W.C Eagles, i expect their odds to be around the 2.3-2.5 mark.

Roos also said he wouldn't be doing his team justice if he did question the umpiring...which is about as blatant as it gets, since they can't actually question the umpiring! Never in doubt? 7 points up with 6 minutes to go when Crouch kicks a sitter out on the full? A point up with more than 2 minutes left? Never in doubt?? Hardly. Oh, and let me just get this straight....The match review panel cite Stafford for an elbow to the head and offer him 2 weeks suspension, yet during the game Stafford actually received a free kick for that very incident (which as I mentioned before, the umpire saw the retaliation on the big screen), which resulted in a goal. Let's be honest, there's a fair bit of luck in any game that is decided by less than a goal, but when there's such a lop sided free-kick count, and the opposition had the last shot at goal....:unsure Anyway...Kangas have to be a decent chance this week, but it would be a very brave man to go against West Coast right now.