Flat horses moving to hurdles

[DanV89]

Hi all,

I was just wondering if there is any way of quickly picking out horses that are having their first handicap hurdles run after being on the flat? I was watching ATR this afternoon and a horse called Silver Streak was running on his handicap hurdle debut in the last at Taunton. He had previously run in two juvenile hurdles. Prior to that he had been a 69 rated flat horse. Obviously this isn't going to work or apply every time but Mick Fitzgerald who was presenting the programme was saying that as a general rule, you can add 45lbs to a horses flat mark and that would roughly equate to what it's hurdles mark should/would be. Using this example, with this horse being rated 69 on the flat, you would expect his hurdles mark to be around 114. However on this, his handicap debut he was racing off 96, so Fitzgerald was saying he could be really well handicapped. I managed to get a few quid on at 3/1, he went off at 2/1 and sure enough he absolutely hacked up by 12 lengths. Just wondering if anyone has any general thoughts on this as a 'rule'?

Edited December 30, 2016 by DanV89

[BillyHills]

Personally i think 45lbs is a bit much to be honest but its not far off the mark and everyone will have their own opinions.

Its not an exact science as its a totally different discipline and some horses take to it and others obviously dont. I have noticed that its usually the 60-70 rated flat horses that tend to improve for hurdles. Those really top class flat horses often disappoint and i supose its a case of stamina more than anything. 

You need a 12f horse from the flat to properly get 2 miles over hurdles i think, some may get away with it at sharp tracks like Huntingdon, Haydock, Aintree, Wincanton etc...but when they go to Cheltenham, Newbury, Exeter etc they struggle to get home.

That horse you saw today was also running for a new trainer for the first time, a proper NH yard instead of a flat trainer so you would expect some improvement there too. There's lots of things to look out for and not many shortcuts to help. Just form study i'm afraid.

HRB site point out first time handicappers but its not free information, maybe the Racing Post does in their sign-post section, i'm not sure?

Don't forget there are plenty of horses that don't improve their mark too!