Question

[MetallicIan]

I would be grateful for opinions regarding what people here consider to be the best way to calculate the "true" odds for a horse race taking out the overround (ie. to a 100% book). I know that near the starting time for each race on Betfair the combined win %age reflected in the odds for all the horses gets close to 100%, but do you think that these odds are a good reflection of each horses real chances? If anyone has any tried and tested methods any comments would be much appreciated, Thanks! :ok

[Datapunter]

Re: Question

I would be grateful for opinions regarding what people here consider to be the best way to calculate the "true" odds for a horse race taking out the overround (ie. to a 100% book).

Calculating the odds taking out the overround will not give you 'true odds'. 'True odds' are the odds a horse should have based on its true chance of winning. But that is something we will never know because there are simply too many factors involved. ( one of wich is luck ) The best we can do is try to find the odds/chances as close as possible.

I know that near the starting time for each race on Betfair the combined win %age reflected in the odds for all the horses gets close to 100%, but do you think that these odds are a good reflection of each horses real chances?

Yes, take a results database with SP. ( also see http://www.adrianmassey.com/ex/index.htm ) You will find that horses with SP 2.00 actually do win 50% of the time, horses prices at 10.00 actually do win 1 in 10 times. ( give or take a few % :o ) So the price is a reasonable approximation of the 'true odds'. The problem is of course which one of the 10 horses prices at 10.00 will turn out to be the winner ?