LegendMon Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 @world, I'm very familiar with Stryktipset because I have friends in Sweden. We tried it once and got 10/13 correct, with nothing in return from 128kr. So I can completely understand why you like them - and perhaps that was always in the back of my mind too @gogolitalia, somewhat agree. Perhaps this was the reason why Malmö surprisingly lost to Ostersunds last game round. The former had everything to play for (anxious), and the latter had absolutely nothing to play for (pressure off). I tend to leave derbies alone, and possibly the proverbial "six-pointer" - but not a rule I've implemented yet. In general, you are correct though, things seem to wind down the closer you get to the end. I don't want to add too many parameters too early, so these are just a simple guide at the moment. Glad you follow! world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 (edited) @LegendMon yeah, problem with Stryktipset type of bets is that we need to have 100% hit rate, otherwise not much return. For derbies I always choose triples/1X2 no matter what's the rating etc. as in those match anything can happen. I agree that rating should be simple and not too many parameters as Paul also suggested earlier. @gogolitalia, I think that's part of homework every punter should do apart from following ratings which is mainly based on recent forms. For me I follow three things in my homework: 1) Motivation: Same as what you mention, also how team prioritize with coming matches home league, champions league/europa, cup etc., new manager appointments, how many matches played in a week etc. 2) Possible line-ups: Any changes, forward-defender etc. 3) H2H history in the same venue/field. It'd be absolutely a sexy rating that consider all those above, but then it'll be too complicated. For the time being, I follow ratings and then somehow adjust them based on the homework. Edited October 26, 2016 by world LegendMon and gogolitalia 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 @world, and even with the 100% strike rate, if you share the same results as thousands of people, it's still a low win! It's fun though Speaking of Allsvenskan; last night's results strike rate was 3/4 - the only game that missed? The Kalmar vs. Gefle one. @gogolitalia was right! world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 10 hours ago, LegendMon said: @world, and even with the 100% strike rate, if you share the same results as thousands of people, it's still a low win! It's fun though Speaking of Allsvenskan; last night's results strike rate was 3/4 - the only game that missed? The Kalmar vs. Gefle one. @gogolitalia was right! yeah true, but atleast in Finnish Vakio (Stryktipset) not many make it to 100% correct, I've seen only max. 5 usually make it and the jackpot is every week 210 000€, so ~40 000 per person...it's quite a big amount compared to amount of stakes. But very difficult to make all 13 correct. So far good result for Allsvenskan with your rating, let's see how it goes today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2b Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Hi guys, i'm sceptical about ELO on soccer. ELO is an individual rating for chess players. Maybe create an ELO rating for managers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 12 minutes ago, Chris2b said: Hi guys, i'm sceptical about ELO on soccer. ELO is an individual rating for chess players. Maybe create an ELO rating for managers. Have you been reading wikipedia @Chris2b? It was originally but it has evolved into many other things including sports. Scepticism can be overcome with results. world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted October 28, 2016 Author Share Posted October 28, 2016 6/8 (75%) on the midweek Swedish games. world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 1 hour ago, LegendMon said: 6/8 (75%) on the midweek Swedish games. Good job. Hope u'll manage to post tomorrow's ratings (Eng. Premiere, Championship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted October 28, 2016 Author Share Posted October 28, 2016 (edited) Next round of games for this weekend (is this the best way to post them?). Still looking to add League One and League Two, and also to improve my spreadsheet. EDIT: @world, I literally posted them at the same time as your message above!!! Edited October 28, 2016 by LegendMon world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 @LegendMon Thanks man, yeah you read my mind. I think it's the best way to post here unless Paul (Admin) has any objections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted October 31, 2016 Author Share Posted October 31, 2016 (edited) Hi, I will post the results when all games are finished, which will be tonight. Malmö lost again but perhaps related to them having already won the Allsvenskan and with nothing else to play for, whereas Gefle gained a massive three points and can still avoid direct relegation (which would be an insane achievement!). Manchester United also couldn't score against Burnley despite having a million chances; results like that are both unexpected and expected from time to time I guess. Still catching up with games to include League One and Two, and looking into a sort of Kelly Criterion style betting plan by next weekend so this system can finally have some traction and monitoring in place. EDIT: I have found a betting strategy now and will implement it for the next set of games. Not all games will apply, and will try a fractional Kelly Criterion strategy to hopefully bring stability and structure to the bets. Edited October 31, 2016 by LegendMon Made a decision; didn't want to double post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted November 1, 2016 Author Share Posted November 1, 2016 Results from the weekend: Swedish Allsvenskan 5 out of 8 (63%) - maybe because it's the end of the season syndrome. EPL 8 out of 10 (80%). Championship 9 out of 12 (75%) --- Okay, now the "real" system is in place starting with the next round of games. We'll start with starting balance of 1000 points (I'm not staking any real money yet), and I'll only post games that fit the strategy - which I mentioned before is a fractional Kelly Criterion style one. This will narrow down selections and hopefully capitalise on winnings, whilst protecting the balance if it hits bad times. world and aftershock9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aftershock9 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Cheers mate - I am interested to see how the strategy pans out. world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 10 hours ago, LegendMon said: Results from the weekend: Swedish Allsvenskan 5 out of 8 (63%) - maybe because it's the end of the season syndrome. EPL 8 out of 10 (80%). Championship 9 out of 12 (75%) --- Okay, now the "real" system is in place starting with the next round of games. We'll start with starting balance of 1000 points (I'm not staking any real money yet), and I'll only post games that fit the strategy - which I mentioned before is a fractional Kelly Criterion style one. This will narrow down selections and hopefully capitalise on winnings, whilst protecting the balance if it hits bad times. Well done. Is it so if Gelfie wins against Östersunds and Helsingborg (at home) loses against Jönköpings then Gelfie will be in play-off! I'm looking forward to follow your real system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 @world, yes that is correct! Should be an interesting final weekend for those teams Unfortunately I think Gefle will lose against Östersunds! Okay, here we go for real! Below is a table of all the bets that qualify based on the ratings, but also the odds and parameters I have set. I won't be betting on anything under 1,33 or any match that does not show value. That combination definitely narrows down everything and making it easier to read/follow for everyone. The stake is then calculated using a fractional Kelly Criterion (of 10%) to avoid going bust too soon, and to reduce volatility. I haven't added a "rating" but if requested then I can gladly add that (and for all matches, if you all prefer). Odds are taken at the time of writing, but of course in an ideal world, I would have time to shop around. Starting Balance: 1000,00 (fake money) Total Stake: 128,62 world and aftershock9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 @LegendMonNow it's getting more interesting I'll surely follow you. Could you still post all ratings (Eng. Premier+Championship) or perhaps PM me? You know I follow them for some other reason too Östersund is northern most team and usually for travelling team it's difficult, but on the other hand they've norhing to play for! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 (edited) @world, thanks for sticking around and following the system! Hopefully it all works out; it's been an interesting journey so far, and it's only just getting started! Will send a PM, since the formatting isn't perfect right now and it'd be embarassing to post something less than ideal - it is still readable, however. EDIT: Can't attach image in PM, so here it is! Edited November 3, 2016 by LegendMon aftershock9 and world 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 On 3.11.2016 klo, LegendMon said: @world, thanks for sticking around and following the system! Hopefully it all works out; it's been an interesting journey so far, and it's only just getting started! Will send a PM, since the formatting isn't perfect right now and it'd be embarassing to post something less than ideal - it is still readable, however. EDIT: Can't attach image in PM, so here it is! PL: 6/10 (60%), Championship: 9/12 (75%), Allsvenskan 8/8 (100%)....Gefle didn't make it even they won:( aftershock9 and LegendMon 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted November 7, 2016 Author Share Posted November 7, 2016 (edited) Hi, @world, poor Gefle they did so well, they really gave it their all! Now that the Swedish league is done I can do some comparison a bit later, on how it ended based on results against how it actually ended! Little bit disappointed with the strike rate this week, especially in the Premier League. Oh well! Here's the results for the actual system though; despite hitting some blanks, it still turned a profit in the first week Starting Balance: 1000,00 (fake money) Staked: 128,62 Returned: 135,55 Profit: 6,92 New Balance: 1006,92 ROI: 0,69% Yield: 5,38% Edited November 7, 2016 by LegendMon Added figures world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 Next round of games! Starting Balance: 1006,92 (fake money) Total Stake: 123,76 world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 Not a bad weekend! Total Staked: 252,38 Total Returned: 291,53 Profit/Loss: 39,14 New Balance: 1039,14 ROI: 3,91% Yield: 15,51% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted November 24, 2016 Author Share Posted November 24, 2016 Next round of games. As long as we avoid a draw, we are golden! Starting Balance: 1039,14 (fake money) Total Stake: 102,00 world and alani42 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 Well, we hit two draws this weekend, which means a small loss. Overall, still in the green! Total Staked: 354,39 Total Returned: 389,46 Profit/Loss: 35,07 New Balance: 1035,07 ROI: 3,51% Yield: 9,90% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 @LegendMonCan you please post your ratings for the following matches: 1. Tottenham - Swansea 2. Crystal P - Southampt 3. West Brom - Watford 4. Sunderl. - Leicester 5. Stoke - Burnley 6. West Ham - Arsenal ---------------------------------- 7. Blackburn - Huddersf. 8. Birmingh. - Barnsley 9. Sheff W - Preston 10. Norwich - Brentford 11. Cardiff - Brighton 12. Fulham - Reading Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 @LegendMonCan you please post your ratings for the following matches: 1. Tottenham - Swansea 2. Crystal P - Southampt 3. West Brom - Watford 4. Sunderl. - Leicester 5. Stoke - Burnley 6. West Ham - Arsenal ---------------------------------- 7. Blackburn - Huddersf. 8. Birmingh. - Barnsley 9. Sheff W - Preston 10. Norwich - Brentford 11. Cardiff - Brighton 12. Fulham - Reading Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 @LegendMonCan you please post your ratings for the following matches: 1. Tottenham - Swansea 2. Crystal P - Southampt 3. West Brom - Watford 4. Sunderl. - Leicester 5. Stoke - Burnley 6. West Ham - Arsenal ---------------------------------- 7. Blackburn - Huddersf. 8. Birmingh. - Barnsley 9. Sheff W - Preston 10. Norwich - Brentford 11. Cardiff - Brighton 12. Fulham - Reading Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
world Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 May be something for admin...if I reply some message from mobile phone it posts same message two or three times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 Starting Balance: 1035,07 (fake money) Total Stake: 107,44 world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 @world - here you go mate; all ratings for EPL and Championship. Just pick out the games you need! world 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendMon Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 Not the best weekend; the system goes into a small loss overall. Total Staked: 461,83 Total Returned: 459,35 Profit/Loss: -2,47 New Balance: 997,53 ROI: -0,25% Yield: -0,54% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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