Grand national 2016

[richard-westwood]

Not long to go now before this year's great steeplechase .....Theresa lot of knowledgeable people on here and I'm sure with deep discussion we can narrow this year's grand national to at least 3 horses ....the beauty of the grand national is thehorses follow a set of rules....which makes sense ....must be a stayer ..,good form ...good jumper .....so to start the ball rolling I've compiled a list of my stats .....obviously nothin is ever set in stone but should go a long way to arriving the field to the magic 3 and maybe that golden winning bet 

All must have won over 3mile +......this is obvious ..no way a horse wins the national unless it stays so discard all non qualifiers for starters (preferably you want 3mile 1f plus winners but that's up to yourself...bear in mind in case shortlist later...further win the better)

No 7 year olds or teenagers.....this is lack of experience or too much experience ....so toss out any that fall under that umbrella 

Nearly all winners in recent times had run in at least 10 chases ....makes sense as your need a certain level of experience before you win the world's greatest steeplechase.....so discard any horse with less than 10 Chase runs 

Nearly all recent winners had won a chase of 17000+......9/10 had actually won a race 29000 prior to winning the national so discard any horse with chase win less than 17000 and flag any with 29000 plus wins as ..,interesting 

No recent winner had fallen more than twice in their entire career ......makes perfect sense you need a rock solid jumper but everyone's allowed odd hiccup hence no more than two falls....discard all horses above this

Almost all recent winners were running within 53 days ....makes perfect sense as optimum fitness is a pre requisite ...in fact 17 of the last 22 winners were actually running within 34 days.....so discard any 54 day+ horses and note any 34 day or less qualifiers as of interest

21 of 23 were officially rated 139 + .......also makes sense as a minimum level of Chase ability is needed to win this so discard any horse below this point ...if any 

Another interesting fact that may help is 18 of 21 had won a chase of at least 12 rivals .....this also makes sense as you need experience of winning races with Hurley Burly so this fact might help with many winners having 15+ runner wins to there name 

Well that should demolish the field for us for starters ......there are a few other stats we csn argus about which may help namely 

The 11st 5 lb cut off point .....apart from last year's horse hardly any national winner breaks the 11st 5lb barrier .....makes perfect sense ...you don't want to be lugging huge weights 4 miles and I'd expect that trend to come back to the fore this year but keep a fluid mind .....after all 17 of last 21 were 10-12 or less !!....so worth remembering for shortlist 

15 of 21 were 10 or younger 

French breads have a terrible record .....although recently they have come to the fore ...that's probably just a blip in stats as French breds aren't known for staying power past 3 miles so Theresa high probability a non French bred horse will win ....may help in case narrow list 

Also 9 of 10 had at least 3 runs that season 

So lets get it done ......winner ..,boooooommm 

 

 

 

Edited March 24, 2016 by richard-westwood

[BillyHills]

This was my preview last month;

 

Full Preview:  Six To Follow For The National

 

Many Clouds 12/1 Coral

Triolo D’Alene 33/1 Betfred

The Last Samuri 33/1 Bet365

Holywell 25/1 BetBright

Double Ross 66/1 William Hill

Highland Lodge 50/1 >Ladbrokes

 

Grand National Forum;

https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/152816-2016-national-ante-post-bets/