Any suggestions on a system ?

[christos83]

I want to start a betting system based on form games and home-away form.

Any suggestions-proposals from your own experience on how many games to look back?

Example 1 form last 6 games and home-away 4 games?

Example 2  form last 4 games and home-away 4 games?

Example 3  form last 6 games and home-away 6 games?

something different ?.....

 

[noneckdude]

This paper suggests to stick to the last 20 matches. The reward of going beyond that is negligible. 

[iroquois]

Every system you choose must follow this rule: %of expectation*price>1

The problem is the first part of the equation...the %of expectation. If you are able to determine this % with acuracy you are in the right way to become a millionaire!

Suggestion: Don´t follow the factors you mentioned. Because they are all in the price established by the bookers. You must find an edge in other factors less visible.

Edited February 9, 2016 by iroquois

[Crinu]

On 09.02.2016, 21:38:39, iroquois said:

Every system you choose must follow this rule: %of expectation*price>1

The problem is the first part of the equation...the %of expectation. If you are able to determine this % with acuracy you are in the right way to become a millionaire!

Suggestion: Don´t follow the factors you mentioned. Because they are all in the price established by the bookers. You must find an edge in other factors less visible.

good to know, thanks

[BaldEagle1950]

Hi Christos83,

For this football season 2015/16 I have been using the '' Fibonacci Technique '' system.

My strategy is something I've devised myself and I'm currently showing a profit of £351.77 

I bet on the same 19 teams every week - they are made up of 6 teams from the Championship - The 3 teams relegated from Prem + 3 promoted from L1.

7 teams from League 1 - The 3 teams relegated from the Championship + 4 teams promoted from L2.

6 teams from League 2 - The 4 teams relegated from L1 + the 2 teams promoted from the National Conference League.

The rest is up to you to judge wether the result of each game is a H W / Draw or AW.

Every game is a single bet and as I write this the biggest single stake has been £89 ( Sheff Wed v QPR to Draw ). It returned £293.70

The staking system is as follows :- 0-1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-144-23

Your stake is found by adding together the previous 2 numbers.

After a successful forecast you step back 2 stake positions.

I started on the very first day of the season with a starting pool of £320 - so I now have a grand total of £671.77

I only bet on League games !!!! NO cup matches at all !!!!

Good Luck if you try this next season.