Cheltenham & Doncaster, Saturday

[richard-westwood]

Not a lot on racing wise in the week so ill focus ill the big saturday racing .  Bit early as this race currently has about 40 entries but average is around 20 runners so you can expect half these to drop out before the weekend but ive passed it through for those interested in ante post 

No planning    99.35

Dolatula     99.30

Distime     99.27 

 

Very interesting result actually .. and totally not what I was expecting ..  lots of talented horses entered for this and top three rated are ..  20/1   25/1 and 50/1 !!

Like I said .. field will cut up and distime particuly off his current low position mught struggle to get in if others above hold their ground .. ..no planning represents sue smith who I greatly respect in  long distance races ....I know they think a lot of this horse and have been expecting a big run from him this year possibly culminating in a shot at the grand national ....but so far he hasnt delivered  but has shown hes definately got talent if he can get going ....big factor is because of lacklustre form hes been ignored by the hcapper has has been alloted a very generous mark for this which is obviously what the computer has spotted .. if you forgive his  last run seems to hold a lot of cards and at 20/1 is looking a huge value bet 

Dolutula also has big chances here ..classy horse on the day and perfect type for this especially given he ran so well last time out and has a decent racing weight for this so has to be respected and im surprised to see him priced up at 25/1!! ... .

Overall im tempted at this early stage to chance a small ante post bet ...could end up losing it but I know sue as mith has had this race targeted and if the field does cut in two ....are you going to get 20/1 and 25/1?....I think not so ill chance it now and see if distime gets  in later

No planning   2 pts win 20/1 bet365

Dolatula    2 pts win 25/1 willh 

 

 

 

 

[BillyHills]

Sorry Richard, moved the other thread by mistake.

(Only 22 left in the race now.)

[richard-westwood]

Well ....that was a well timed stroke of luck ....!! ...both still left in but dolutola 14/1!!....and no planning 16/1 ....nice 

[BillyHills]

Full Preview

Verdict:

A very interesting contest and I think we have a good standard this year. We might even see the trends being bucked and a horse rated over 140 landing the valuable prize. My main fancy is Dolatulo for Warren Greatrex. He’s had a quiet time of it of late but you can’t argue with the form of this 9yo who ran a cracker at Aintree last time out in the Becher Chase. He should get his ground and will jump round here no trouble.

Ziga Boy is the one for the trend spotters off 132 but my second pick is the novice Le Mercurey who is still in his first season as a chaser. I think he will improve for the trip and could be very well handicapped on 142.

 

Selections; Dolatulo 14/1 >William Hill  &  Le Mercurey 12/1 Ladbrokes

Past Winners;

[richard-westwood]

ill stick this one in here too .........

freebets hcap chase

 

champagne west    99.51

buywise                 99.47  **

tenor nivernais       99.44

astracad (with run )  99.44

 

very open race ..lots of classy horses and could go to anyone really but champagne west looks the one to be on on the balance of form ...positive is his run behind village vic looks very strong form ...negative is none of the top two or three are nescessarily well hcaped but this is a weaker race and village vic is a classy horse so i think the level of form the top two attained in that race will have a big impact on this one .....tenor nivernais warrants ew respect but also looks exposed ....astracad might be an interesting bet should he get in .....would sneak in at near bottom weight and would warrant respect if doing so but overall i cant escape the form of village vics race so top two tag teamed against field is the % bet 

champagne west    6 pts win  7/2 bet365

buywise   2 pts win 12/1 paddyp

 

** looks as if trainer of buywise  is now favouring skybet chase ... but tbh I think hed be better suited to this race ....so may not run but options still open 

Edited January 27, 2016 by richard-westwood

[BillyHills]

1.50 Cheltenham: BetBright Chase

Verdict:

Djakadam is very short in the betting but you cant blame the bookies for being tight after recent wins for Faugheen, Vroum Vroum Mag, Un De Sceaux and Douvan from the same yard, three of them with the Ricci connection. He should win but I don’t think he’s bombproof just yet and has a bit to learn in the jumping department.

An alternative is O’Faolains Boy, I think he has the beating of both Many Clouds and Smad Place and is a fair each way bet at the moment. He still has a bit to prove but he’s lightly raced and seemingly back to something like his best the last time we saw him. If he goes well his price for the Gold Cup with half so it maybe worth having a few bob on at 33/1.

 

Selections: O'Faolains Boy 7/1 with BetVictor

(NB: Many Clouds 7/1 Stan James)

O'Faolains Boy EW in Gold Cup 33/1 with Betfred

 

 

[Sir Puntalot]

Link updated as we're re-structuring.  

[BillyHills]

225 Cheltenham : FreeBets Chase

Both my ante-post selection are NR's,

backing Champagne West 9/4 Bet365, bit short but the race has cut up badly due to the forecast ground.

 

 

[BillyHills]

Tote Scoop6 – Saturday January 30th

No winners last week in the Tote Scoop6 so we kick off with a Win Fund of £168,675 and the Bonus Fund continues to grow and grow. It currently stands at an amazing £812,745 meaning we have a combined total of almost £1Million in the pot before we even get started.

This week’s action comes from the Cheltenham trials day and a cracking card at Doncaster which features the Sky Bet Chase at 3.15.

 

Leg 1: 12.30 Doncaster

Early start and a right puzzle of a race to get the ball rolling. Just the 18 runners and plenty of Southern based trainers coming up for the decent ground on offer. Degooch could be interesting for the Farrelly yard; he’s only had four starts over hurdles and might be one of the better-handicapped horses. Nigel Twiston-Davies saddles Deputy Commander who has been beaten a long way in his two novice hurdles but now goes handicapping for the first time, he could be a lively outsider.

Selection: Degooch (Desert Commander)

Leg 2: 1.15 Cheltenham

Out first visit to Cheltenham and a very competitive Novice Handicap Chase in which seven of the 15 runners won last time out. All of those horses are obviously in good form but face stiffer tasks now so I prefer the chances of Viva Steve from the Mick Channon yard. He won over fences in October at Market Rasen and ran well at Kempton in better company last time out. He’s a good jumper and is handily weighted on 10st 5lbs. Un Temps Pour Tout represents the Pipe team and was much the best of these over hurdles and carries top weight here.

Selection: Viva Steve (Un Temps Pour Tout)

Leg 3: 1.30 Doncaster

Only ten runners but a fascinating wide-open affair. We have three horses chasing hat-tricks and two others who were good winners last time out.  On Tour is unbeaten since his switch to chasing and now goes handicapping for the first time on a mark of 138. He looks sure to go well but I think Micky Hammond’s Just Cameron is well up to winning in this company and is preferred on this occasion. Of the others I fancy Turn Over Sivola now that he has some decent ground to race on.

Selection: Just Cameron (Turn Over Sivola)

Leg 4: 2.25 Cheltenham

A tough competitive handicap over an extended 2m4f, with the ground riding soft this will take some getting so stamina may be the key here. Champagne West is a promising sort who had a season off with injury but made a very encouraging comeback here in December behind Village Vic. He is entitled to confirm that form with Tenor Nivernais, Annacotty and Johns Spirit. Irish Cavalier has plenty of weight but won at the Festival last season and is a very useful chaser on his day and should be therabouts while Final Assault makes the long trip down from Perthshire and has to be respected.

Selection: Champagne West 9/4 William Hill (Final Assault)

Leg 5: 3.15 Doncaster (Sky Bet Chase)

15 runners line up for the Sky Bet Chase and it’s a very good renewal with former Cheltenham Festival winner Holywell heading the weights on a mark of 159. He’s a classy sort but the yard have been very quiet and I prefer the chances of Dolatulo who will be heading for the Grand National later this season. A good third last time out at Aintree puts him in with a chance off this weight and is very capable on his day. Of the others I fancy the novice Le Mercurey, he steps up in trip but has bags of scope and novices often do well in this race.

Selection: Dolatulo 12/1 Stan James (Le Mercurey)

Leg 6: 4.10 Cheltenham

We finish of with a two-mile handicap hurdle and it has a real lob sided look to it with the top weight Cheltenian rated 18lbs higher than anything else. He often runs well at the track so I wouldn’t put you off but we have one or two interesting looking sorts lurking further down the weights. Nicky Henderson saddles both Clean Sheet and Maestro Royal and Paul Nicholls runs a 4yo called Frodon who gets in here off 10st and makes his debut in this country today. The bottom one Solstice Star has won his last four races, he started the season on a mark of 92 and goes here off a new high of 122, I’d be surprised if he can go in again in this company.

Selection: Frodon (Clean Sheet)

 

[richard-westwood]

Right ....doubling up from saturday to saturday from now on for rest  of season ....or from big race to big race whichever comes first ...this weeks team 

Champagne west 

Dolatula 

No planning 

 

Also rated 410 chelt 

Prouts pub 98.88

Clean sheet    98.83

Cheiftains choice  98.81

 

Clean sheet is an interesting runner ...looked progressive when last seen but hasnt seen light of day for a year so in such a tough race looks tall order ....and price cramped ....prouts pub looks a decent sort and the form of his recent win on heavy looks fairly strong...if he can maintain that curve hes got a good chance here and twice price of fav makes good value .. cheiftains choice is just a speculative outsider ...has patches of good form but not consistent ...on best form he would have a good squeak at a huge price but not sure whos gonna turn up ....25/1 is a big price 

Prouts pub  3 pts ew  8/1 bet365

Cheiftains chouce  1 pt ew 25/1 bet365 

[arsenalfh]

1.50 Cheltenham - O'Faolains Boy e/w @ 10/1 Bet365

Djakadam is a solid favourite here on his Gold Cup 2nd and looked as good as ever in the John Durkan earlier in the year but I reckon Smad Place and Many Clouds are ripe to be taken on with O'Faolains Boy. Smad Place's season was based around the Hennessey and I would be surprised if he is quite up to replicating that form anytime soon while Many Clouds won't be fully tuned up here with the Grand National in his sights. O'Faolains Boy was really impressive beating 150 rated Sausalito Sunrise with ease and he also won an RSA despite never travelling on the quick ground. 156 really underestimates his ability and I actually really fancied him for the Welsh National off that mark but the yards decision to swerve that suggests they believe he's up to competing at Grade 1 level and we've yet to see the best off him. Heavy ground over an extended 3m 1f on a stiff track should bring the best out of him.

2.25 Cheltenham - Salubrious e/w @ 10/1 Bet365

Nicholls reported he didn't finish tired at all last weekend and was working really well in blinkers midweek so it's interesting they turn him out here in headgear just 7 days later. He loves the mud and stays further than this making conditions ideal. Champagne West looks short carrying top weight with Irish Cavalier who surely needs better ground and they are worth opposing at the prices.

Bet365 are paying 1/4 odds each way so it's worth multiplying your edge in an each way double too.