Monthly Naps Comp 31st December 2015

[chris34]

12.30 Lingfield

Competitive looking affair where quite a few can be given a chance, Excellent Aim won last time out at Southwell and has a good record on the AW, 5lb rise and a step back up in trip might be enough to thwart him today.

Spinning Cobblers won last time out when overcoming a very troubled run, only up 2lb for that effort and he might be well treated, that said a career best required.

Ghost Train beat one of the inform Bradley runners last time out, keeping it fairly simple from a prominent position a 4lb rise looks fair, but never won off a mark this high and doesn’t strike you as one to follow up given overall profile.

Not Your Call has been well backed already and this yard have to be respected with gambles however has shown very little for this yard in 3 runs, his one win to date comes over a mile so something to prove at this trip.

Burauq looks te one to be on at a price despite a wide draw again, looked to be an improving sort for this in form yard but struggled to land a blow when trapped wide throughout last time out, should easily bounce back off same mark and looks a large price despite the wide draw, with useful apprentice taking off a handy 3lb.

 

1pt win Burauq 10/1 bet365

[Trotter]

12.30 Ling - Humour - win at 10/1 bog wm hill

With inspections at the jumps meetings I'm not waiting to see what's on and going straight to the AW

6F handicap

I'm looking at some new thoughts about tackling handicaps for the new year.........which basically involves looking for horses in outside of the market leaders which have been showing signs of improvement in their last couple of races and which have an angle involving something different from last time

In this case my horse has been beaten 3, 2 and 1 lengths (plus the bits) in his last 3 races with the angle being that he now drops back to his winning trip of 6F after a couple of runs at 7F

I'm thinking of avoiding last time out winners on the basis that mostly they'll have run up to their best in order to win (particularly in low grade handicaps full of exposed types).........and that it's unlikely they'll run to their best in 2 consecutive races, indeed if they've gone up in the weights they'll have to run even better