richard-westwood Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 345 asc balmoral hcap empire storm 99.56halation 99.52mussadas 99.52sacrificial 99.47bronze angel 99.47 very tricky hcap to finish the day ..well known for being a minefield ...sacrificial is fav here at around 7/1 so sets the standard but currently the three horses above him are 14/1 24.0 ...26.0 ....so rather than fart about trying to separate ...in such an open race ill have all three run at very good value odds mussadas 2 pts win 14/1willhhalation 2 pts win 24.0 betfairempirestorm 2 pts win 26.0 betfair BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 (edited) Scoop6 – Saturday October 17th No winner of the Tote Scoop6 last week so we have starting Win Fund of £79,535 this time round. The place part of the bet paid over £500 last Saturday so well worth having a crack at the bet this Saturday. The six races are made up from the Champions Day fixture at Ascot plus jumping from Stratford and a 5f sprint from Catterick. Feature race is the 3.05 from Ascot, the Champion Stakes which carries a first prize of £770,000! Leg 1: 1.20 AscotWe kick off with the Champions Sprint Stakes over 6f and a warm favourite in Muhaarar from the Charlie Hills yard. The 3yo has won Group 1 races already including the July Cup but may want the ground to dry out a bit. The unbeaten Twilight Son is a lively danger, he beat Strath Burn at Haydock last time and is still improving but one that may represent better value is Maarek who won this in 2012. Jamie Spencer is the perfect partner for this hold up merchant and will enjoy any cut in the ground.Selection: Maarek 18/1 Betway (Muhaarar) Leg 2: 1.55 Ascot12 runners line up for the Fillies & Mares race including last year’s winner Madame Chiang. She’s not been running well and a better bet maybe the St Leger winner Simple Verse. Had the race took off her at Doncaster and has since regained her crown on appeal. She drops back in trip here but looks a class act back amongst her own sex. Covert Love won in France last week but this is a big ask to do it all again while the French pair Candarliya and Sea Calisi are respected in what is a tremendous contest.Selection: Simple Verse 8/1 Ladbrokes (Candarliya) Leg 3: 3.05 AscotThe Champion Stakes, a race that revolves around the favourite Jack Hobbs. Clearly the best horse in the race after finishing second to Golden Horn at Epsom and then going on to win the Irish Derby. The problem is the draw; he’s stuck out wide in stall 12 and will probably need a personal best to land the prize. The opposition is strong in depth without any superstars so Jack Hobbs may just get away with this and I quite like Fascinating Rock and The Corsican as each way alternatives in an intriguing contest.Selection: Jack Hobbs 5/4 Bet365 (Fascinating Rock) Leg 4: 3.25 CatterickA 5f sprint handicap with plenty of old favourites lining up. Confessional from the Tim Easterby yard is in good nick at present and was second in this last year, he’s drawn ok in stall five and goes on the shortlist. Kimberella ran well at Ripon behind Don’t Touch in similar conditions and could bounce back to form and last weeks winner Union Rose will also like a bit of cut in the ground. The runner up at York was Adam’s Ale; he’s been knocking at the door and looks sure to figure in the finish for in form trainer Mark Walford.Selection: Confessional 7/1 BetVictor (Adam’s Ale) Leg 5: 3.30 StratfordThe two big yards of Nicky Henderson and John Ferguson could fight this handicap hurdle out between them and the vote goes narrowly for the top weight Nesterenko. His 4th to Court Minstrel in April looks a bit better now that horse has come out and won a valuable race and he will be all the better for his 2nd at Worcester last time out after a break. Ferguson’s Great Fighter won a poor race at Hexham last month and his opening handicap mark of 126 looks a bit harsh on what he has achieved. Of the others I like Angus Glens who was second at Exeter last week.Selection: Nesterenko 6/1 Skybet (Angus Glens) Leg 6: 3.45 AscotOne of the most competitive races of the day to finish off with, a class 2 handicap over a straight mile and four C/D winners including the last two Hunt Cup winners GM Hopkins and Belgian Bill, both could go very well here.Last year’s winner Bronze Angel is a bit hit and miss this season while top weight Chil The Kite is running well at present although does look a couple of pounds too high in the handicap. Sacrificial is well fancied for the Irish raiders after a good 3rd here in the Britannia while Buckstay is in cracking form and won over 7f here last time out. I’m going to give a chance to Spark Plug at a decent price, he has some very solid form in the book and the first time cheekpieces may eek out some more improvement.Selection: Spark Plug 20/1 Paddy Power (GM Hopkins) Edited October 16, 2015 by BillyHills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 (edited) Marco Botti has never hid the fact he thinks a lot of this 4yr old gelding by Oasis Dream and yes he's had his quirks but if the real horse shows up today ''in the mood'' he'll not be far away, what with 20 runners going for post the Jolly is just too short for me - 2/1 is BONKERS MENTAL!Shame on the High Street bookmakers too for only offering (a fifth) on the first 3 home - Truly SHOCKING!The selection was 2nd here last time out ''3rd Oct'' and that run can be excused as Martin Harley was riding ''Say no more on him'' that run should have put the Botti trained speedster BANG on for this Champion stakes (Group 1) Marco and the horse also now have an Ace up their sleeve, the services of the World Class Christophe Soumillon.This jockey needs zero intro for any racing enthusiast and i have him down as the perfect match for this horse, you wont find a jockey that can get down and drive finish any lower than Mr Soumillon.Positives_ Trainer, Last Run C&D 2nd, Going, Price, World Class pilot.Negatives_Large field, Traffic.The horse cant be missed..........Watch out for Big White Face! 13:20 Ascot - Naadirr. 1pt Win Bet @ 50/1 a few firms Edited October 16, 2015 by Jimmy2shoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 120 ascot muharrar 99.78twilight son 99.74 strathburn 99.73 top class sprint and quite a few in with chances ..muharrar is probably the best but could struggle to run his best race against recent performers after an 80 day layoff .....twilight son and strathburn were flat out wen the former beat the latter a head ......yet today strathburn is twice the price of twilight son ......must be the value bet of the race ....ill have an ew punt for a bit of saturday funstrathburn 5 pts ew 11/1 corals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 (edited) The Fillies & Mares stakes - Group 1 looks a cracking race ''IMO'' It very much looks a race between the (2) Class Frenchmen, Soumillon & BarzalonaC.Soumillon rides Candarliya who was 2nd to Treve at Longchamp, then won last time out at the Arc weekend, this grey will love the going and you would have to think this is the ride Soumillon has come for.M.Barzalona rides Sea Calisi who was 3rd to Treve, 2nd that day being Candarliya, Sea Calisi has been tucked away since 13th Sep so it can be taken on trust that trainer F.Doumen has always had this race in mind.Double Dutch Bet.........( Back Both )13:55 Ascot - CANDARLIYA & SEA CALISIA French Victoire!!! Take Your Pick! Edited October 16, 2015 by Jimmy2shoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The QEII Looks a fascinating race what with all the mumbles and grumbles regarding the ground, Aiden O'Brien will carry out every test possible with the turf and if Gleneagles lines up it's because he's gave the going the green Light.It's by NO WAY a two horse race and even though the front pair fully deserve their place the value is poor, i feel the most interesting horse in the line up is the Andre Fabre trained bay colt being Territories.Anybody like me that likes watching races more than once will see clearly in the 2000 Guineas he doesn't get the clearest of FIRST runs, his run was blocked and just about at the worst of times, Jockey M.Barzalona does not panic and just waits for things to unfold, he then pulls ''RIGHT'' and takes off BUT Ryan Moore on Gleneagles has got first run and Barzalona is playing catch up, i feel horse & jockey would have been even closer had they not met that traffic at a very crucial time of the race.3 Weeks ago Mr Fabre was bypassing this race and sending the colt for the breeders Cup, question is, was he keeping a very shred eye on the weather ?At this level its high stakes time, but i always say FAIR PLAY when it comes to Godolphin, they fear nobody and always like a crack, they come into this race a little bit under the radar, all the focus is on the front pair, we as punters are in the dark regarding how Territories will handle this track & the going, but at the showing price of 9/1 - He sure looks to me like a CRACKING EACH WAY bet considering it's a quarter the odds 1-2-3 home. 14:30 Ascot - Territories ( Play Safe!! ) Each Way Bet @ 9/1 most firms. Small Cheeky Tricast1st - Territories2nd - Solow3rd - Gleneagles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punterpete Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 12.45 AscotForgotten Rules win 6/1 Bet365Wicklow Brave ew 11/1 CoralLast years winner Forgotten rules is capable of reversing the finishing order with Agent Murphy in the Irish St leger. Defeat in his last 3 runs have all been on faster ground and the softer ground on offer today will see things turn to his advantage.Wicklow Brave is a decent hurdler and Cheltenham festival winner and been putting in some decent performances on the flat. His 2nd in the Ebor and 3rd in the Irish St leger coupled with Ryan Moore being in the saddle gives him place chances at least. 3.25 CatterickConfessional win 5/1 Bet 365Appleberry ew 16/1 Stan JamesConfessional arrives here in decent form despite not winning but was only narrowly beaten on his last two starts. Also came second in this last season and runs off the same mark today and could go one better today.Appleberry taking a chance on this because he has not been campaigned as much as the rest of his opponents. This is only his 3rd run after a four month break.Not the best draw but with Tom Marquand on board and claiming 3lbs its not impossible to overcome.3.45 AscotBalty Boys ew 16/1 William HillBeen in cracking form this season winning a group 3 at Haydock last month and finishing strongly in two handicaps here at Ascot. Runs off a career high mark today but has conditions to suit and should run a big race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Champions Day has thrown up not only quality but also big competitive fields for us punters to get stuck into. Fantastic day of racing ahead.12.45 Ascot - Wicklow Brave @ 11/1 StanJamesWicklow Brave beat Forgotten Rules fair and square in the Irish Leger and was only a neck behind Agent Murphy who is doubtful stayer over this 2m trip yet is a bigger price at double figures. That was another improved effort by Wicklow Brave after a good 2nd to Littigant in the Ebor and I think he can take another step forward here. Willie Mullins has proved himself time and time again on the flat this season after two marvelous training performances to get Renneti placed in the Cesarewitch and win the Irish version with Digeanta and I can see Wicklow Brave going close here.1.20 Ascot - Naadirr e/w @ 50/1 Bet365Naadirr is worth a shot here with many bookies paying 4 places. The field is full of Group 3 horses leaving places up for grabs and although he doesn't seem to put it all in he traveled all over Eastern Impact who was only beaten 1.5Ls by Muhaarar in the July Cup last time over course and distance. He might just be a horse who will enjoy the faster pace of Group 1 company and can pull off a surprise today.1.55 Ascot - Covert Love @ 6/1 Bet365Covert Love love was really impressive in the Prix de l'Opera when battling back against Jazzi Top in a race of real Group 1 quality. That's easily the best piece of form in the race and although she struggled to get home over 12f in the Yorkshire Oaks I reckon that was more because they got racing miles from home as she really stayed on strongly when winning the Irish Oaks. Palmer has reported her to be in terrific shape despite racing just two weeks ago and I would have thought she would have been shorter as a dual Group 1 winner.2.30 Ascot - Elm Park e/w @ 20/1 Bet365Elm Park was a big Derby hope at the start of the year and I was very impressed with the way he won the last day back over a mile. He settled much better and beat the useful yardstick Gabriel comfortably by a similar margin to Kodi Bear when you adjust the weights who is more than half the price. Solow will be hard to beat but Elm Park was a Group 1 winner over a mile at 2 and with Gleneagles likely to drop out he has a massive chance of finishing in the places with Bet365 also offering 1/4 odds. He's also entitled to come on for that reappearance and on his ground he could very well be up to this class as was thought earlier in the year.3.05 Ascot - Found @ 9/2 Bet365I think Jack Hobbs could be vulnerable over 10f given he only really got going in the final furlong in the Irish Derby and he's coming up against a filly with the speed for a mile who got closer than he ever got to Golden Horn in the Irish Champion Stakes. Found was also only beaten 5L in the Arc despite never getting a clear run and finishing with tons of running in her. She looks to be much improved after overcoming a few issues earlier in the year and will give the Hobbs team a lot to think about.3.45 Ascot - Fort Bastion e/w @ 25/1 Bet365 & Halation e/w @ 20/1 Bet365Lost any chance of winning last time when he unseated his rider on the way to post but ran credibly to finish 5th when left to much to do in the closing stages. He's coming down to a nice mark though after being dropped a pound for that and is now 4lbs lower than when he finished a good 6th here at Ascot to the smart Heaven's Guest. A little cut in the ground should be perfect for him and now just 1lb higher than when winning comfortably at Ayr earlier in the year I can see him going well.The other I like is Halation who looked progressive earlier in the year before not staying an extended 10f when travelling well and being caught in traffic next time on the wrong side of the track in the Cesarewitch. Down a pound he can make is presence felt with Spencer who I feel is the best jockey over a straight mile at Ascot booked to ride. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Can't help myself but to get stuck into a sprint handicap every weekend.3.25 Catterick - Appleberry e/w @ 14/1 BoylesportsAppleberry ran a decent race last time and meets a couple of these on much better terms. Like punterpete said, she's had a light campaign and is still lightly raced compared to most of these. She has course and distance form and the ground is ideal whileTom Marquand takes off another 3 which is another plus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Sure love the way the French celebrate, British racing just doesn't have that touch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 17, 2015 Author Share Posted October 17, 2015 345 asc balmoral hcap empire storm 99.56halation 99.52mussadas 99.52sacrificial 99.47bronze angel 99.47 very tricky hcap to finish the day ..well known for being a minefield ...sacrificial is fav here at around 7/1 so sets the standard but currently the three horses above him are 14/1 24.0 ...26.0 ....so rather than fart about trying to separate ...in such an open race ill have all three run at very good value odds mussadas 2 pts win 14/1willhhalation 2 pts win 24.0 betfairempirestorm 2 pts win 26.0 betfairmussadas wins ....backed into 7/1 ...thatll do nicely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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