Flat Racing Sat 17th October (Inc. Scoop6)

[richard-westwood]

345 asc balmoral hcap 

empire storm   99.56

halation      99.52

mussadas      99.52

sacrificial      99.47

bronze angel   99.47 

very tricky hcap to finish the day ..well known for being a minefield ...sacrificial is fav here at around 7/1 so sets the standard but currently the three horses above him are 14/1    24.0 ...26.0 ....so rather than fart about trying to separate ...in such an open race ill have all three run at very good value odds 

 

mussadas    2 pts win  14/1willh

halation  2 pts win 24.0 betfair

empirestorm  2 pts win 26.0 betfair

[BillyHills]

Scoop6 – Saturday October 17th

 

No winner of the Tote Scoop6 last week so we have starting Win Fund of £79,535 this time round. The place part of the bet paid over £500 last Saturday so well worth having a crack at the bet this Saturday. The six races are made up from the Champions Day fixture at Ascot plus jumping from Stratford and a 5f sprint from Catterick. Feature race is the 3.05 from Ascot, the Champion Stakes which carries a first prize of £770,000!

 

Leg 1: 1.20 Ascot

We kick off with the Champions Sprint Stakes over 6f and a warm favourite in Muhaarar from the Charlie Hills yard. The 3yo has won Group 1 races already including the July Cup but may want the ground to dry out a bit. The unbeaten Twilight Son is a lively danger, he beat Strath Burn at Haydock last time and is still improving but one that may represent better value is Maarek who won this in 2012. Jamie Spencer is the perfect partner for this hold up merchant and will enjoy any cut in the ground.

Selection: Maarek 18/1 Betway (Muhaarar)

 

Leg 2: 1.55 Ascot

12 runners line up for the Fillies & Mares race including last year’s winner Madame Chiang. She’s not been running well and a better bet maybe the St Leger winner Simple Verse. Had the race took off her at Doncaster and has since regained her crown on appeal. She drops back in trip here but looks a class act back amongst her own sex. Covert Love won in France last week but this is a big ask to do it all again while the French pair Candarliya and Sea Calisi are respected in what is a tremendous contest.

Selection: Simple Verse 8/1 Ladbrokes (Candarliya)

 

Leg 3: 3.05 Ascot

The Champion Stakes, a race that revolves around the favourite Jack Hobbs. Clearly the best horse in the race after finishing second to Golden Horn at Epsom and then going on to win the Irish Derby. The problem is the draw; he’s stuck out wide in stall 12 and will probably need a personal best to land the prize. The opposition is strong in depth without any superstars so Jack Hobbs may just get away with this and I quite like Fascinating Rock and The Corsican as each way alternatives in an intriguing contest.

Selection: Jack Hobbs 5/4 Bet365 (Fascinating Rock)

 

Leg 4: 3.25 Catterick

A 5f sprint handicap with plenty of old favourites lining up. Confessional from the Tim Easterby yard is in good nick at present and was second in this last year, he’s drawn ok in stall five and goes on the shortlist. Kimberella ran well at Ripon behind Don’t Touch in similar conditions and could bounce back to form and last weeks winner Union Rose will also like a bit of cut in the ground. The runner up at York was Adam’s Ale; he’s been knocking at the door and looks sure to figure in the finish for in form trainer Mark Walford.

Selection: Confessional 7/1 BetVictor (Adam’s Ale)

 

Leg 5: 3.30 Stratford

The two big yards of Nicky Henderson and John Ferguson could fight this handicap hurdle out between them and the vote goes narrowly for the top weight Nesterenko. His 4^th to Court Minstrel in April looks a bit better now that horse has come out and won a valuable race and he will be all the better for his 2^nd at Worcester last time out after a break. Ferguson’s Great Fighter won a poor race at Hexham last month and his opening handicap mark of 126 looks a bit harsh on what he has achieved. Of the others I like Angus Glens who was second at Exeter last week.

Selection: Nesterenko 6/1 Skybet (Angus Glens)

 

Leg 6: 3.45 Ascot

One of the most competitive races of the day to finish off with, a class 2 handicap over a straight mile and four C/D winners including the last two Hunt Cup winners GM Hopkins and Belgian Bill, both could go very well here.

Last year’s winner Bronze Angel is a bit hit and miss this season while top weight Chil The Kite is running well at present although does look a couple of pounds too high in the handicap. Sacrificial is well fancied for the Irish raiders after a good 3^rd here in the Britannia while Buckstay is in cracking form and won over 7f here last time out. I’m going to give a chance to Spark Plug at a decent price, he has some very solid form in the book and the first time cheekpieces may eek out some more improvement.

Selection: Spark Plug 20/1 Paddy Power (GM Hopkins)

 

 

Edited October 16, 2015 by BillyHills