Saturday Racing (Inc Scoop6)

[BillyHills]

Scoop6 – Saturday October 3rd

No winner of the Tote Scoop6 last week so we have a nice pot of £162,890 to start off with this time round and we could hit the £250,000 mark. Don’t forget if you don’t manage all six winners the place part of the bet is well worth winning, last weeks dividend was £110.

The action comes from Newmarket, Ascot and Redcar and the feature race is the final leg at Ascot, the ToteScoop6 Challenge Cup at 3.45.

 

Leg 1: 1.45 Newmarket

A big field of two-year olds to start off the Scoop6 this week, but probably not as many in with a chance as you might think. Twin Sails is the worthy favourite on his 4^th in the Gp2 Vintage Stakes. A decent 3^rd last time in another big sales race and should be in the mix once again. Lower down the weights Ralph Beckett’s Puzzled Look is interesting while the Ryan runner It’s The Ice is worth a second look and might be best of those drawn low and could try and make all on the far side.

Selection: Twin Sails 5/2 Paddy Power (It’s The Ice)

 

Leg 2: 2.00 Ascot

I like the look of Robert Cowell’s Speed Hawk here in this 5f Listed contest. The trainer actually saddles a trio of runners but this 4yo looks the main hope judged on his third at Doncaster last time behind Cotai Glory and can notch his first win outside of handicap company. Wind Fire deserves to get his head in front after some decent efforts and could make the frame while at a bigger price Dutch Masterpiece would be the each way pick.

Selection: Speed Hawk 5/1 William Hill (Dutch Masterpiece)

 

Leg 3: 2.50 Newmarket

Over £270,000 to the winner in this race and five grand if you finish 6^th! Aidan O’Brien doesn’t miss a trick and has sent over Waterloo Bridge to cash in on some of the prize money. The highest rated horse by some way and won the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. Not been seen since and moves up in trip so not bomb proof. Zhui Feng won another sales race here at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago so has to be respected but my idea of the winner is Gifted Master from the Hugo Palmer yard. Pat Smullen has been booked which is a big positive and showed much improved form last time.

Selection: Gifted Master 4/1 Paddy Power (Waterloo Bridge)

 

Leg 4: 3.00 Redcar

23 runners but this 2yo Trophy is not always as competitive as it looks on paper. Limato won it last year from a mark of 111 and while we may not have one as good as him it will pay to concentrate on those rated over 100. That theory gives us three to look at, Orvar and Log Out Island from the Hannon yard and Richard Fahey’s Mayfair Lady.

Orvar won on his debut at Salisbury but had to go to Turkey to get his head in front again and his stable companion is preferred. Log Out Island has been placed in both the Flying Childers and the Mill Reef and this drop in class will ideal. Mayfair Lady won a Nursery easily at York off 87 but was only 4^th last time in a Group 3 although the soft ground could have been the problem then. She gets 7lbs from the others and that could just tip the balance.

Selection: Mayfair Lady 7/2 Betfred (Log Out Island)

 

Leg 5: 3.10 Ascot

Group 3 action here in the John Guest Bengough Stakes. Just 9 runners but a very open affair and none of them can be completely dismissed. Naadir and Polybius are at the head of the market and they fought out the finish of the Hopeful Stakes here in August. Polybius won by a length that day and shouldn’t be much between them here. One that might beat them both is the top one Aeolus. He won the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes over this trip and then was only beaten 4 lengths by Toormore in the Lennox Stakes over 7f. Conditions look ideal here and should go close despite the 4lb penalty.

Selection: Aeolus 8/1 William Hill (Polybius)

 

Leg 6: Ascot 3.45

A very competitive Heritage Handicap over 7f to finish off with. Lots of horses stepping down from a mile and others moving up from sprint trips but I find these intermediate races are usually won by 7f specialists. We have seven C/D winners in the line up including last year’s winner Intransigent from the Andrew Balding yard. He’s 4lbs higher now and not in the same form and a better bet may be his stable mate Make It Up. The 3yo has done really well since finishing down the field in the Britannia and won a Conditions event impressively last time out. The Fahey runners are difficult to ignore and I’ll take Heaven’s Guest to come out on top of his quartet.

Selection: Make It Up 8/1 Skybet (Heaven’s Guest)

 

 

Edited October 2, 2015 by BillyHills

[richard-westwood]

345 asc 

buckstay    98.84 

heavens guest 98.84  

 

again a fahey horse is top rated here and therefore very dangerous but I think he faces some tough opposition in buckstay who was very unlucky last time and met so much trouble in running .....thats makes him better than  bare form so strong fav 

 

455 asc   

perfect muse  98.77

sleepy sioux     98 73 

 

perfect muse has been knockin on the door and looks primed now for a good run .sleepy siuox is a riskier bet but has shown signs that maybe a good run is on the cards soon and at 16/1 he looks value 

ill try an ew doubles as it always gives u a shot at a possible big win if your lucky 

 

buckstay  6/1

heavens guest  12/1

 

perfect muse 7/1

sleepy sioux    16/1 

 

4x 2 pt ew doubles