jtw1 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield Marcdude182;2073645 Considering the top quarter of the EPL would mean only betting those teams when they play another team from the top 5 , as i'm sure the odds would dictate that . Mind you if it pays ......!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcdude182 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield yeah i understand that say if united were playing someone like sunderland at old trafford then the odds may be ridiculously low so you could may double it up with another selection. i may be wrong in thinking this but sometimes you'll get selections for your system that might not neccesarilly mean the home team will win but its probably an indication that the bookies think the away team wont. an example could be west brom vs wigan last week, west brom were 1.72 to win at home but i think thats just cause people assume wigan werent going to win and people would bet against wigan away from home regardless of the opposition but personally if i were to risk my hard earned (thats what i tell my boss anyway lol) cash on a team i would rather risk it on a double including someone like barca and spurs than lumping it on a single with west brom. these ideas are just things that have been swirling around in my head and i appreciate that you guys have been doing stuff like this a lot longer than me so i would really like to now what you think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcdude182 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield this is where i disprove everything ive just said but then again what do these forums exist for if not to think of an idea then watch it go down in flames lol, anyway with the odds range that i personally like to bet i would select these bets: (all odds are from sky bet) spurs/man city double: 2.36 juventus/napoli double: 2.16 b. monchengladbach: 1.95 valencia: 1.75 2.36 is normally higher than i would bet but what the hell, this idea is just me thinking out loud anyways Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield [FONT=Comic Sans MS]You are very welcome to "think out loud" (as you put it) on this thread, Marcdude..... however, please note that this particular forum is for "systems" and, with all due respect, I don't think your selections are based on a system which has been back-tested and has a definite set of selection criteria...... I think there is a lot of "gut feeling" in the way you select your bets. Perhaps your selections would be better suited to the "Glory Hunter's Forum" :ok[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 237 bets; +15.5% yield Grex;2073629 Well, only two wins today, resulting in a loss for the weekend :\ No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie START 100.00 234 10/12/2011 EP Arsenal 10 Everton H 1.57 10.00 W 5.70 481.50 16.3% Pinnacle 235 10/12/2011 EP West Brom 12 Wigan H 1.73 10.00 L -10.00 471.50 15.8% Ladbrokes 236 10/12/2011 IA Palermo 01 Cesena H 1.67 10.00 L -10.00 461.50 15.3% Bet365 237 11/12/2011 IA Udinese 21 Chievo H 1.54 10.00 W 5.40 466.90 15.5% Sportbet 238 17/12/2011 EP Everton 11 Norwich H 1.65 10.00 L -10.00 456.90 15.0% William Hill 239 17/12/2011 EP Fulham 20 Bolton H 1.70 10.00 W 7.00 463.90 15.2% Interwetten 240 17/12/2011 EP Newcastle 00 Swansea H 1.85 10.00 L -10.00 453.90 14.7% Pinnacle 241 18/12/2011 EP Man City 10 Arsenal H 1.72 10.00 W 7.20 461.10 15.0% Pinnacle 242 18/12/2011 IA Genoa 21 Bologna H 1.88 10.00 W 8.80 469.90 15.3% Pinnacle 243 18/12/2011 IA Parma 33 Lecce H 1.72 10.00 L -10.00 459.90 14.8% Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltstar Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Winter Break now I think, not sure if Italy have it? but I hope the players in the English Premiership don't eat too much Christmas dinner so we get some winners in the next round to make a profit :hope Grex just out of curiosity do you know how many rounds you have gone before without making any sort of profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield [FONT=Comic Sans MS]No rest for the wicked, I'm afraid, Maltstar..... there is a full mid-week round of matches in the EP and Serie A, and then the EP is at it again next Monday/Tuesday. Good question about the losing streak. The system is on its worst losing streak..... 4 rounds :unsure. Never before has there been more than 2 consecutive losing rounds. Just to mention the longest winning streak was 8 rounds :p[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Everton, Lazio and Napoli for this midweek? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield For once, Sanyok, you've got it totally wrong.... it's actually Lazio, Napoli, Everton (in order of kick-off) :p [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie START 100.00 238 17/12/2011 EP Everton 11 Norwich H 1.65 10.00 L -10.00 456.90 15.0% William Hill 239 17/12/2011 EP Fulham 20 Bolton H 1.70 10.00 W 7.00 463.90 15.2% Interwetten 240 17/12/2011 EP Newcastle 00 Swansea H 1.85 10.00 L -10.00 453.90 14.7% Pinnacle 241 18/12/2011 EP Man City 10 Arsenal H 1.72 10.00 W 7.20 461.10 15.0% Pinnacle 242 18/12/2011 IA Genoa 21 Bologna H 1.88 10.00 W 8.80 469.90 15.3% Pinnacle 243 18/12/2011 IA Parma 33 Lecce H 1.72 10.00 L -10.00 459.90 14.8% Pinnacle 244 21/12/2011 IA Lazio Chievo H 1.58 10.00 Sportbet 245 21/12/2011 IA Napoli Genoa H 1.62 10.00 Betfred 246 21/12/2011 EP Everton Swansea H 1.63 10.00 Sportbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennostain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Good luck with you bets:hope. But the Newcastle vs Wes Brown does not match your table? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Bennostain;2075203 [FONT=Comic Sans MS]"Wes Brown".... nice joke (I hope!) :lol Newcastle are 1.90 on Bet365, therefore do not match the selection criteria of 1.45-1.80 :ok[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennostain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield [quote=Grex;2075207][FONT=Comic Sans MS]"Wes Brown".... nice joke (I hope!) :lol Newcastle are 1.90 on Bet365, therefore do not match the selection criteria of 1.45-1.80 :ok[/FONT][/quote] Wups :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Bennostain;2075224 "Wups" Wes Brown (West Brom)?.... or "Wups" 1.90 odds?..... or both? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Following you again Grex! :hope Don't like the look of Everton but can't leave it out or it wouldn't really be a system anymore! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield [quote=Lahrio;2075420]Following you again Grex! :hope Don't like the look of Everton but can't leave it out or it wouldn't really be a system anymore! :ok[/quote] [FONT=Comic Sans MS]You didn't learn your lesson after last weekend ? :lol I don't like the look of Everton either, but you can't let gut-feeling influence the selections. As you say, a system is a system[/FONT] ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennostain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Grex;2075408 Name:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 243 bets; +14.8% yield Only Lazio let us down...... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie START 100.00 238 17/12/2011 EP Everton 11 Norwich H 1.65 10.00 L -10.00 456.90 15.0% William Hill 239 17/12/2011 EP Fulham 20 Bolton H 1.70 10.00 W 7.00 463.90 15.2% Interwetten 240 17/12/2011 EP Newcastle 00 Swansea H 1.85 10.00 L -10.00 453.90 14.7% Pinnacle 241 18/12/2011 EP Man City 10 Arsenal H 1.72 10.00 W 7.20 461.10 15.0% Pinnacle 242 18/12/2011 IA Genoa 21 Bologna H 1.88 10.00 W 8.80 469.90 15.3% Pinnacle 243 18/12/2011 IA Parma 33 Lecce H 1.72 10.00 L -10.00 459.90 14.8% Pinnacle 244 21/12/2011 IA Lazio 00 Chievo H 1.58 10.00 L -10.00 449.90 14.3% Sportbet 245 21/12/2011 IA Napoli 61 Genoa H 1.62 10.00 W 6.20 456.10 14.5% Betfred 246 21/12/2011 EP Everton 10 Swansea H 1.63 10.00 W 6.30 462.40 14.7% Sportbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield Just had a look at Bet365 odds for the EP on 26/27 December, and it looks as though there won't be any selections (Serie A is on vacation until 2012). [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] So, I take this opportunity of wishing all PL viewers a very........ [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] MERRY CHRISTMAS :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltstar Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield You too mate See you in 2012 :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield Hi Grex. Haven't you simulated the results on betting 1x double chance on favorites? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Good question, Sanyok. I have done a quick "simulation", and the results of laying the away win (same as 1X double chance) are as follows: Number of bets 246[/FONT][FONT=Comic Sans MS] Stake 10 units Liability (approx) 10,450 units Profit 1,790 units Yield (profit/liability) [B]17% [/B]The important yield figure (17%) is better than backing home wins (14.7%).[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield Could you provide me the entire Excel document? :unsure What about DNB (Draw no bet) results on home teams? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield [quote=sanyok;2076957]Could you provide me the entire Excel document? :unsure What about DNB (Draw no bet) results on home teams?[/quote] Please tell me how to share the Excel file (you don't have enough posts to send a PM).... and then you can do the DNB analysis yourself ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield Hey Grex, just wondering how you calculated your Liability? I would have thought it would just be the number of bets by the stake you used (as in the total amount you would lose if all your bets lost). Also, am I right in thinking that if the average odds of 1X for home favourites are 1.2, that a 100% Strike Rate would give you a 20% yield? What was the strike rate on that simulation you did for laying away wins (assuming you still have the number, you don't have to run it again:p)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield Grex;2077291 may you send it to saniok888[at]gmail.com? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield sanyok;2077373 email sent :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield Lahrio;2077341 [FONT=Comic Sans MS]If you are laying an away win at odds of (say) 5.50 with a stake of 10 units, then you are risking to lose 10*(5.50 - 1), i.e. 45 units..... so this is your "liability". The strike rate of laying away wins is 88.6% :ok[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield How do you change the odds for matches for 1x in Excel? Manually? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield [FONT=Comic Sans MS]I assume you received my Excel file OK. I don't have a database of 1X odds. You will have to develop an empirical formula to convert home odds to 1X odds, based on a selection of currently-published odds from (say) Bet365.[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: Grex's HOMES; 246 bets; +14.7% yield It seems Stoke on 31 December will be selected :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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