Flat Racing ~ Thursday (York Day 2)

[BillyHills]

York Ebor Festival – Day 2 The Fillies take centre stage on day two of the Ebor Festival with the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks the feature race at 3.40. The Lowther Stakes for the 2yo’s is the main supporting race along with a couple of fiendish handicaps to keep everyone happy. 1.55: DBS Premier Yearling Stakes (6f) A valuable sales race to get the ball rolling on day two at York. These races are very popular and with nearly £150,000 going to the winner it’s no surprise we get maximum fields. Two or three of these appear to stand out so it’s not as competitive as it first looks. Tasleet is rated 109 on his second in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood, he was already a Listed winner and this is a drop in class for him. Lathom was 5^th in the Molecomb and Orvar was 6^th in the Windsor Castle so they both should be thereabouts in this grade while Roger Charlton’s Projection could be a late improver worth watching. Selection: Tasleet 7/4 Bet365 2.30: Pinsent Masons Lowther Stakes (Group 2)(Fillies) (6f) Nine runners go to post for the Lowther and all but one of them (Twin Falls) have been in the winner’s enclosure already. Mark Johnston’s 2yo’s have been flying all season so anything he runs has to be respected. He sends just one in the shape of Lumiere who was expected to win on debut at Newmarket and did so like a very good filly. She will take all the beating here and the danger might be the Ascot winner Besharah. She won a Group 3 contest by 3 lengths and had earlier ran 3^rd in the Queen Mary and is very closely matched with Easton Angel. Of the rest I like the Kevin Ryan runner Ashadihan who was a good second to Illuminate last time out. Selection: Lumiere 11/8 Betfred 3.05: Clipper Logistics Stakes (Class 2 Handicap) (1m) Tough competitive handicap here won by Hugo Palmer last year, he saddles Extremity down the bottom end of the handicap and wears blinkers for the first time so worth a second look. David O’Meara means business and he runs no less than 8 horses, stable jockey Danny Tudhope has picked He’s No Saint so that could be a tip in itself, he won well last time and could be an improving type. Both Russian Realm and Fort Bastion have been running well and Two For Two shouldn’t be too far away either. Of the rest Western Reserve and Musaddas travel up from Newmarket and have been running very well in big handicaps and are reasonably treated. Selection: He’s No Saint 9/1 BetVictor 3.40: Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) (1m4f) The big race of the day and a terrific renewal with Irish Oaks winner Covert Love heading the market. She has improved no end since winning a Class 3 handicap here in May and has gone up a total of 32lbs in the ratings. She has the beating of Jack Naylor and Curvy on the Curragh form and may not have stopped improving yet. Jim Bolger saddles Pleascach who won the Irish 1000 Guineas; she was then second to Curvy at Ascot in the Ribblesdale and a slightly disappointing 5^th in the Pretty Polly. I think she’s better than that and could be the danger to Covert Love on this surface. Selection: Pleascach EW 7/1 Coral 4.20: EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed) (Fillies) (1m4f) An open looking renewal of the Galtres Stakes and Jordan Princess is the only filly set to carry a penalty after winning the Aphrodite Stakes at Newmarket last month. She’s since finished third in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood and sets a decent standard. The favourite will be Suffused a 3yo trained by Roger Charlton. She won well at Salisbury and was second there in a Listed race last week and looks to an improver. Bright Approach has been entered up like a really good horse and will find this a lot easier than the Nassau or the Ribblesdale, her last two starts. I’m sure John Gosden will find a race for her and this big drop in grade could be the key and looks a bit of value to me. Selection: Bright Approach EW 12/1 Betfair 4.55: EBF Stallion Stakes (Fillies Class 2 Handicap) (7f) The finale and another tricky handicap to sort out. The Stoute yard won this last year with Bragging and run Royal Seal this time round with Pat Smullen booked. She was second to Dusky Queen here in a similar contest but is now much better off at the weights and ran another solid race last time and deserves to get her head in front. The owners other runner Spangled will also be popular, unexposed with only three runs in her career she won well last time at Newmarket and is fairly treated here. Of the others Sulaalaat shouldn’t be written off just yet and could go well at a big price. Selection: Royal Seal 8/1 Paddy Power

[richard-westwood]

typical york ...arabian queen beats golden horn??...20 lbs his superior .... I give up ... 305 york fort bastion 99.32 alfred hutchinson 99.27 races are wide open so these two scream value even though the vast majority look exposed ......both havw been running well in big races but conditions of this race have fallen right for both and at 20/1 and 25/1 they look fantastic value fort bastion 5 pts win 25/1 pp alfred hutchinson 5 pts win 20/1 boyles edit .....im going to specialise in these big hcap races from now on ...a lot of the time these big races are crackable but it takes a lot of time to cover all the nescessary bases and when im rating other races it just pulls time away and its easy to miss things ....but if I just specialise in the big races it means I can do the groundwork a few days before and just finish the race once ground and finsl runners have been confirmed ......ive also been working with my friend on a probability formula because in these big races a large percentage just cant win .....its a fact and the percentage varies from race to race .....in one race it could be just 5 out of 20 cant win .....yet in another race the whole race is geared around say three horses who are so far in front that laws of probabilty say one of those three have a huge advantage over the others ...... its interesting because its just a different but nescessary form facet that would greatly compliment my own in these big races ......in this race today ....form probabilty is saying .....alfred hutchinson .your fired and mussadas are the most likely winners ....so will be very interesting just to see how they run ......