Royal London 1 Day Cup

[Carlisle Blue]

This tournament started a few days ago, I don't think anyone has started a thread for it so I thought I would add one. For the cricketing newbie the Royal London Cup is the 50 over a side county competition with the teams split into two groups in a round robin before the knockout stage. I am suggesting a couple of game bets below rather than an outright. Before the tournament started my major fancy was Kent but they haven't had the rub of the green so far with one game abandoned and last night losing to Glamorgan in a game which they would would have one if not for a short break for a rain shower which meant they couldn't spin or control the ball. But anyway.... Whilst all eyes will be on the match at Edgbaston today for the first day of the third test there is no doubt in my mind that the best cricketing bet today comes in Lancashire where I strongly fancy the home team to turn over Middx. Lancashire have played one game in the competition losing heavily to Essex at Chelmsford, but you can ignore the result completely as it was won by Essex at the toss with an unusually tacky pitch. If you read the Lancs report of the game they have cast the result from their minds. This will be Middlesex's second match in the competition with their first game abandoned, however Middlesex's form in the short version of the game has been pretty woeful winning 4 and losing 9 in the T20. Whilst The Blast competition is a different format teams are now treating it as an elongated version with much less of the defensive forward strokes a la England's approach versus New Zealand this summer. Lancashire on the other hand are in the T20 quarter finals winning 7 and losing 6 and they have been playing some good cricket recently. They have batting strength in depth including arguably the best all round one day international player in the world James Faulkner. What is also useful for them particularly in the latter end of the season is their spin attack on pitches which are starting to show some wear and variable bounce. The big news for this match is the probable omission for Middx of Steven Finn. Mark Wood has some sort of injury so Finn has been called up by England for what will be a "late decision". Too late to make Lancashire for a 10.30am start I reckon. His 10 overs will be sorely missed by the Panthers. So in essence Lancashire are playing at home, have the better form, Middlesex are missing their main strike bowler and are out of form. Lancashire are freely available around the 4/5 mark and I will be getting heavily involved in this one.

[Carlisle Blue]

My 2nd bet this morning is down in Somerset where the defending Royal London champions Durham take on Somerset. I think either something is up down in Somerset or they have no interest in this competition at all. The reason for this is because Somerset have loaned Alfonso Thomas to Sussex, now the Somerset manager says its to maintain his fitness for the remaining championship games citing "that he was unlikely to play in the Royal London Cup anyway". I think that is, to put it politely "hogwash". Alfonso was in March named Somerset's Limited over and T20 captain for this season!!! Could you Middx loaning out Eoin Morgan for the 1 day cup lol?? Aside from the morale effect of this Somersets form is pretty poor and they take on Durham who won here last time they played. Their stroke playing as opposed to slogging batsman should get full value for their strokes on this small pitch.

[Carlisle Blue]

The mornings bets are going ok with the main bet Lancashire looking very good for the win. And I will be happy Durham don't have to chase anymore than c 300 which I think is achievable with a good start I am going to add Essex this afternoon to beat Warwickshire. I was a little bit reticent to add them this morning as their last match was decided on the toss. But apparently the pitch is going to favour a seam attack, and whilst Warwickshire have Chris Woakes he looked a little short of match practice in their last game and otherwise their best bowlers are spin based. Essex are in good form and have been targetting this competition and are in the knockouts of the 20/20. I have watched Warwickshire on a few occasions in the 20/20 and I have felt that they have been a bit flakey with the bat once McCullum got out. Well I am afraid McCullum don't play in the Royal London. Johnathon Trott is pushing for a recall for Warwickshire but he will probably need a run out or two to get back to form as well. Essex are freely available at 4/5 and are worth an interest this afternoon

[Carlisle Blue]

I reckon I am looking good for three winners today. I can't see Warwickshire winning from their current situation but Chelmsford is a funny little ground, it ain't over till it's over there. I am sticking one up for tomorrow now as the price according to oddschecker is dropping but is still available at Bet365. I fancy Kent at 13/10 to beat Hampshire. Kent were so unlucky not to beat Glamorgan last night due to the wet conditions affecting ball control. But they have got themselves a really nice little limited overs team with the emerging Bell-Drummond and Denly who has showed improved form since returning to Kent after a disastrous spell at Middx. They kick the innings off and set things up for the powerhouses in Northeast, Billings, Stevens and Blake. If Kent can get through 15 overs without losing a wicket the game is pretty much theirs. That doesn't just apply to this match tomorrow! Their bowling unit is decent and has benefited from the return of Matt Coles, Stevens and Claydon bowl wicket to wicket and supported by probably the best English spin option not currently under consideration for the national team Treadwell. They are in good form they made a cakewalk of winning the T20 group and haven't missed not having an international player this season. Hampshire are obviously a very dangerous unit but from a batting perspective once you get past Adams, Vince and Carbs there isn't THAT much left for me. Their bowling unit is decent similarly matched to Kent's wicket to wicket with a good spin option. I just think Kent have a bit more depth in their batting for me. Was rather surprised to see Hants were favourites if I am honest

[Carlisle Blue]

There are two other Royal London games today. But neither appeal as much as Kent to be honest. Worcestershire are a hint of value as they are in better form in the short version of the game than Yorkshire, they are at home and they are odds against. Yorkshire also struggled to get past Derbyshire the other night who somehow completely threw the game away last night against Gloucestershire. I wouldn't want to be backing them at odds on, but not tempted enough by Worcs either. This afternoon Sussex take on Nottinghamshire and whilst I fancy Notts again I wouldn't want to touch them at the price on offer. Sussex have quality early in their batting but lack the depth of Notts. But if they keep hold of their wickets Notts would be in trouble. Don't fancy taking the odds on.

[Carlisle Blue]

With Kent looking in relatively decent shape attention turns to tomorrow. Hopefully Kent will have them all out for less than 240 :) Tomorrows card looks difficult at first glance. My eyes were initially drawn to the match between Middlesex and Kent but the game is being played at Radlett CC which is Middlesex's training ground! This to my mind give the Panthers a bit of an advantage. Somerset take on Worcestershire and I can't fancy anything there either, Somerset can post a decent score but struggle to defend and I am really disappointed in the way Worcestershire are gutlessly trying to get after the score set by Yorkshire this morning. Your RRR is over 10 for gods sake, no 3 runs will be fine for us we aren't going to try till its over 15. Essex get on the road to Glamorgan, I think these two teams are difficult to split but I see that Bet365 have gone 13/10 on Glamorgan. Essex aren't easy to beat at Chelmsford but away from home is a different matter. I will put a punt up now though in the Derbyshire v Northampton match but you will have to wait for the toss before putting it on. Derbyshire have a relatively balanced team and their batting team has a stronger look with the return of Chesney Hughes and their bowling unit is methodical. The same can't be said for Northants. Some teams are top heavy, Northants go the other way with a great bowling unit attack that better teams would be happy to have. Kleinveldt, Willey, Crook are all very strong. But their batting is hit and miss and rather flakey. So if Northants are batting first I am going to be having a strong punt on Derbyshire, if Derbyshire are batting first I am going to wait until the first innings is over. As long as they have posted a total over 200 I will wait and back Derbyshire at that point as long as they are not much shorter than when the game started.

[Carlisle Blue]

Fourth win in a row for the thread which is great. I have been mulling over tomorrow's games a bit further and as much as I hate to do it as I love the make up of the Kent team I think the bet tomorrow has to be to back Middlesex to win at Radlett. Please note this will be a very high scoring match, if you are able to bet in play and Kent bat first and rack up a big looking score c 350 runs wait for the innings break as Middx will be a much better price. My thought process on this is fourfold. Radlett is Middx's training ground firstly, secondly the Kent team won't get home till c 11pm, will have to be up at c 6am and are likely to be stiff and a bit tired, thirdly Middx were a bit unlucky at Lancashire the pitch improved as the match went on and Lancs struggled in all honesty, fourthly I think the Middx team are more experienced generally at a senior level whereas Kent are young and upcoming with a few experienced heads. I have a feeling Junaid Khan could make early inroads into the Kent openers and I also think Radlett will have kept this wicket "nice" and it's unlikely to be worn which won't help the dangerous Treadwell. The stars align for Middx here and are freely available at Evens.

[Carlisle Blue]

I've decided I am going to get with Surrey this morning at Durham. I wanted to be with them yesterday but had to think it through. What worried me was Durham bowling team of Chris Rushworth and John Hastings. Hastings got 5 wickets for 41 runs from his 10 overs at Taunton which is pretty amazing on that small ground and Rushworth is just so consistent. But you have to put it in perspective! Somerset were fielding an inexperienced batting line up in comparison to what they should put out so early in this comp and the fact they got 69 runs before losing a wicket has put it in perspective. If you compare the top 5 bats for Somerset against Surrey who they face today it's totally different. And in addition Durham's top 5 isn't full of depth once you get past Mustard and Stoneman Borthwick is a spinner who can bat, Clark is a recent signing Collingwood is older than dirt etc etc. Surrey have Jason Roy, Steven Davies, Sanga, Wilson, Foakes and a decent seam attack. Surrey are freely available at Evens. I am having two singles and a double on Surrey and Middlesex today. With the Northants v Derbyshire where I essentially want to be with whoever is bowling I am just going to back the under on the total innings runs for both teams. Will put the mark that I get later if I get the chance

[Carlisle Blue]

Middlesex have won the toss and are batting. I am about 2 miles from where this game is being played and it is a beautiful morning for batting. Radlett is a small ground so I will be very disappointed if Middx can't rack up a big first innings score 330+. If you haven't taken the price on Middx you have 10 mins.

[Carlisle Blue]

I don' t think the odds on Surrey are right in play. They should be odds on! Team try to double where they are at after 30 overs as a rough guide. They are on c 150 after 27 overs!! They are 3 wickets down but the batsmen are well set. I would have thought they would be more around the 8/13 mark but Evens is still available. Think the wicket at Radlett must be slow looking at the run rate, no other excuse for it. But as Middx won the toss they must have seen that batting first on it was to their advantage so whilst they are going along at less than 5 an over I am still pretty confident

[Carlisle Blue]

Durham and Middx are looking good, although another wicket at Radlett would be handy. Over at the Derbyshire game I got 275.5 for the under bet which has won. Derbyshire are now favs but Northants bowling attack means they are still very much in this match!

[Carlisle Blue]

Note to Middx CC, when Radlett know which team are coming and their best bowler is the internationally experienced Treadwell why on earth have you allowed them to prepare a slow turner when you don't have spin options of the same ability? It's plain stupid. Rant over. I still think Middx will get this but really!!

[Carlisle Blue]

Surrey and Middx brought the money home :). And so we move on to tomorrow game between Hampshire and Middx down at the Ageas. I would like to say first and foremost that I think Pakistan to bt Sri Lanka in their 20/20 match is a better selection than this game. There are a lot of Royal London games on Sunday and I think will be having a very big punt on a game on Tuesday. Over at Derbyshire their batsman must be playing with an awful lot of discipline to fend Northants off. I would have had Willey bowling earlier for Northants if I am honest but there you. I think will be money to be made on Derbyshire in another game on this showing. Backing Hampshire is like boom or bust! I'm not a fan of anyone with a stick in their hands apart from Adams, Carbs and Vince. If Junaid gets one of them early they will already be behind the 8 ball. Middlesex have better batting depth but I wouldn't want to be having "decent money" on them as Hampshire have better bowling options than Middx with Wood and Edwards in particular. But Hampshire are fresher and Middx have played a tough game today and will either be on the road very early in the morning or at a Hants hotel very late tonight. Purely for interest and for minimum stake I would have a double on Pakistan in T20 with Middx and hope their batting depth scrapes them through. But otherwise keep your powder dry for better options on Sunday and next week.

[Carlisle Blue]

I am going for a double and a nigh on 5/1 treble on Sunday with prices currently available with Bet365. No other firms have their prices up for Sunday games yet so the treble price could be better later this morning but it will be around 5/1. I am still kicking myself that I didn't row in with Glamorgan yesterday at home to Essex as I did like them at 13/10 but there you go. The double for Sunday is Nottinghamshire to bt Essex and Yorkshire to bt Durham. Add Kent in for the treble Let's start in Essex. As I mentioned in an earlier post Essex are very tough to beat at home but when I look at it their form is a little overstated, they beat Lancs on a wicket which Lancs say was won at the toss, beat the Bears who are struggling with Woakes and Trott only just returning, Chopra struggling a bit for form and no Brendan McCullum in this format and then went on the road to Glamorgan and got tonked. Nottinghamshire are unbeaten in this competition they beat Sussex on the road, thrashed the Bears by 9 wickets at home and a draw. Their season is also "all in" on this competition having failed to get through to the knockout stages of the T20 which they would have expected to achieve. They have also dumped their overseas Dan Christian and they have only brought in Imran Tahir! As I said they want this bad I reckon. I felt like I was being unfaithful to my wife on Friday when I opposed Kent with Middx on Friday but as I said Radlett was the wrong place and wrong time. But I am happy to get back to them at home on Sunday. Kent with a 1-1-1 record will see their next 2 London Cup matches, tomorrow and Friday, as must wins before they focus on their T20 quarter final against Lancs 2 weeks today. They have the lineup and batting strength and power to win tomorrow. Sussex also really need to win this match and with their team's balance they will, but I think they will just miss out tomorrow. They have a blend of destruction in Wright and Bailey with the bat, experience of Nash and Joyce and with the ball the loaned Alfonso Thomas, spin options of Beer and Yardy and uber quick Mills. But this bowling attack can be carted about, particularly Mills. I think Kent can either create enough scoreboard pressure to force Sussex into mistakes or get into Sussex early enough to limit their potential. This is my least confident pick of the three though, it will be tight I think! Finally I am back off to Durham hoping that Yorkshire will expose their batting depth like Surrey did on Friday. Yorkshire seem to have got the bit between their teeth now, their last 2 wins have been against gutless Worcestershire and a tight one against the improving Derbyshire but for confidence purposes it sets them up nicely for this match. My Yorkie confidence was tempered slightly with the news that opening bat Andrew Gale isn't going to play but they have so much more batting depth than Durham it won't matter. Bresnan is back in the squad for Sunday and with Rashid and Brooks they have enough to get this done.

[Carlisle Blue]

I've just been relooking at today's Hampshire v Middx game. Yesterday when I posted I didn't really look at the prices as I didn't think I wanted to touch the game. I've looked at them this morning and I'm sorry but Middlesex aren't 11/8 shots to win this match. 11/10 maybe. Carberry has been playing extravagant shots like he is still playing for the Perth Scorchers and every game is a T20. If Junaid Khan can get a wicket or preferably two early in his opening 5 or 6 overs the game is over!! I'm not a huge Wheater or Gatting fan. Hants batting depth is too light. All their eggs in 3 baskets. Decided to follow this in play now, will have a tickle on Middlesex if they get either Carbs or Adams out in the first 10 overs as the price will likely only shift to around the 10/11 mark

[GrimReaper]

Really good work till now, Weel done mate.

[richard galbraith]

For what its worth I thought M'sex were way too long at 11/8.

[richard galbraith]

Worcestershire at Evens and Kent at 10/11 look interesting for tomorrow.

[Carlisle Blue]

Morning guys and cheers for the props. I decided to watch and wait in play after Middx batted first rather than Hants, didn't have to wait long to decide no bet required there. In the end I put Pakistan in with the double and the treble for today instead. Quite how Pakistan one that though from the position they were in after 10 overs and Afridi's bad captaincy in the Sri Lanka innings with their bowling I don't know. Good luck with Worcestershire Richard. I do like them in the T20 especially when Mo is in the team as they can shut down both ends with Ajmal if they want. But the losses against Yorkshire and Somerset have put me off a bit so will watch with interest. I am going to be interested to see how Warwickshire get on at Old Trafford today v Lancs, an uplift in form with players returning will make them interesting over the next couple of weeks. Can pretty much guarantee I will be with Sussex tomorrow when they play Middlesex at home ;). Have a good Sunday chaps!

[Carlisle Blue]

There will also be worser 7/4 shots in this comp than Derbyshire at Surrey today especially as they are playing at Woodbridge Road in Guildford rather than the Oval. Woodbridge Road sounds more like a game down the local rec lol.

[Carlisle Blue]

I think Nottinghamshire will be content with chasing 268 on a pitch this size it should give them a chance to play themselves in. Durham v Yorkshire has been shortened and if Yorkshire can keep them to 220 that would've nice. Kent are looking good wonder if they are playing on a very worn pitch as they keep their best one for the T20 QF. Interestingly Bet365 have Notts to win in play at 4/7 whilst Hills over Even money!!!

[Carlisle Blue]

I had intended on getting balls deep on Sussex tomorrow but Kent are doing this easy and making the Sharks batsman look like mugs. Going to have to have a rethink on tomorrow.

[Carlisle Blue]

Notts are 34/0. Bet365 are 4/9 on the win Hills are 4/5. With Hales now "in" this is a very good price imo

[Carlisle Blue]

With the double and the treble up its another good day! Looking at other results today Warwickshire's form looks to be on the up, Derbyshire looked to have Surrey scared for a little while before falling flat, Northants and Worcs backed up earlier posts that Northants can bowl but are flakey with the bat and Worcestershire are gutless after being bowled out for 105 chasing 126. Kent did it a lot easier that I thought and that must be some soul searching in the Sussex dressing room because they can't blame the track. I thought the Hants batsman might have carried on for a bit to at least try to get a positive result from a game which was in their hands and they could do with winning. Yorkshire won with Duckworth but they were cantering anyway. So on to tomorrow! I haven't looked at the price but I can't imagine Yorkshire will be much of a price to beat Leicestershire. Somerset are blooding players with a view to the future for a road trip to Northants who are just too inconsistent. Sussex got stuffed by Kent today and play Middx tomorrow, I'm not prepared to put heavy cash on either of these after results this weekend. So the only team I am prepared to back tomorrow is the improving Warwickshire who are at home to Glamorgan. Warwickshire are currently pushing Lancs and it looks like they will beat Lancashire even though Trott only scored 1 run against a Lancs team with good spin options to control run rates. There is still more room for improvement here! But in terms of a suggested stake I would say 2 out of 5. A short note about Tuesday. I currently have strong fancies in all 5 games. I am sure you will guess who I will be backing in all 5. But at the moment I am thinking about 10 trebles, four folds and acca. So keep your powder dry!

[Carlisle Blue]

Sorry about Worcestershire Richard :( hope you were able to get your money back in running

[samm92]

Followed you in on your treble and added Surrey so happy days , keep up the good work !

[Carlisle Blue]

Pleased you had a profitable Sunday Samm!

[pshan]

Great work Carlisle,! Impressed with the detailed analysis and winning tips of course . Impressed with Warwickshire beating a strong lancs side away scoring 13 off the last over in a close game.

[Carlisle Blue]

Yep so was I Pshan it was good to see Warwickshire get back to some form as it gives us additional options in upcoming games and I don't think Woakes played today either so there is definite room for improvement. Couple of things I have seen tonight. Firstly I was a little surprised to see Yorkshire were available at 4/9 I was expecting something closer to 1/3. Secondly I was looking at the prices for The Royal London outright I was totally amazed to see Kent are freely available at 16/1. In my own mind they are third / fourth favourites behind Notts, Yorkshire and possibly Surrey. I reckon their true price should be 8/1. Not sure what planet the books are on to make Gloucestershire generally a shorter price than Kent!

[Carlisle Blue]

I am going to move on to thoughts for Tuesday. And having had a rethink on the approach on strategy on how to approach this from a betting perspective I have decided on taking my three best options in a treble as bankers and adding 2 more for a four and a five fold. So three bets! In terms of staking it will be 50% on the treble, 25% on the 4 fold and 25% on the 5 fold. My treble will be: Nottinghamshire to bt Lancashire, Surrey to bt Worcestershire, Hampshire to bt Essex. For the 4 fold I will add Derbyshire to bt Leicestershire and finally for the 5 fold Durham to bt Gloucestershire. Nottinghamshire take on Lancashire at Aigburth in Liverpool. I have done a bit of research on the pitch there and it seems that it always one of the better wickets on Lancashire provincial circuit so I am happy the quality will be fine. Notts are still unbeaten after beating Essex at Chelsford and the difference of the recent addition of Imran Tahir was there for everyone to see today. Even though Notts lost 3 wickets relatively quickly Patel and Taylor saw them through all the way to the end and they still had batting to come out of the hutch. Lancashire look to be regressing and could do with a game or two that could give them a confidence boost. I don't think they will find it here. There is just to much quality in their opposition. I don't think I have to say too much about the reasons why I am opposing Worcestershire on the road against Surrey if I am honest. Every reason has been written in this thread earlier. Some might be surprised I've thrown Hampshire in the treble. There are two reasons for this a) my belief that Essex are a much worser team on the road b) I was really impressed with the 2 Hants spinners today Crane and Dawson and towards the end of the season when the wickets are more of a dust bowl the ability to tie up 2 ends with spin is very useful. Essex have more of a seam based attack and I think this will make the difference ultimately and give Hants the win. I have been waiting for the right game to get with Derbyshire and a home match against Leicestershire looks ideal. Derbyshire have been very unlucky they lost their game against Glos due to a no ball on the last ball of the match due to not enough players on one side of the pitch. And they lost a narrow game to Yorkshire on duckworth. But they do have decent batting depth and a reasonable seam attack. Fairly confident they will put one in the win column on Tuesday. I've opposed Durham in their last 2 matches against Surrey and Yorkshire but they take a step down in grade of opposition here where it is all about one man. Get Klinger out as soon as possible! I reckon Rushworth and Hastings can do that job here. I think they have enough quality to bring the win in.