Tour de France

[Darran]

Very surprised no one has started a thread yet and hopefully there will be others posting on this but here is my preview anyway. Yellow Jersey It was a real shame last year that we were denied the three way battle between Chris Froome, Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali as the first two both got injured which meant Nibali had a very easy task. This year those three return and we get the added bonus of Niro Quintana who finished 2^nd to Froome in 2013 and won last year’s Giro. Froome is favourite and I can understand why. He showed in the Dauphine last month that he is in good form again coming into the Tour and his Team Sky looks the strongest it has been since Wiggins won in 2012. Two things worry me about his chances though. First of all it is the cobbles on stage 4 as he doesn’t really like them, although his team is capable of protecting him. Secondly and more importantly is the lack the shortage of time trial miles this year’s race. He has a fairly big advantage in time-trails compared to his rivals and that is basically gone, plus Team Sky will need to ride a better team time-trial than they did in the Dauphine. Contador is bidding to become the first rider since Marco Pantani to win the Giro and the Tour in the same season. Given Pantani was on every drug going and that Contador flopped in the Tour when he last tried to do the double that shows how hard it is to do. Granted Contador won the Giro very easily and he may have eased off later on, but this looks a hard Tour route and I don’t think he can pull off the double. Also he lost a lot of time to Nibali on the cobbles last year which is a worry this time around as well. Nibali is turning up to the Tour in similar form to how he turned up last year, which is not great. However you can be certain he will be fully tuned up come Saturday and on one stage of the Dauphine he looked very good before taking it easy for the rest of the race. Who knows if he would have won last year if the other two had stayed in the race, but given the form he was in I think they would have found it hard to have beaten him. The time he gained on the cobbles won him the Tour for me because it put Contador under pressure and that led to him taking more risks which caused him to crash. Quintana has shown bits of good form this season and this could well be his best chance of winning in Paris. That is because he is an out and out climber, so the lack of time-trial miles pays massively in his favour. Froome has come out and said he isn’t worried too much about him because he doesn’t have a turn of pace high enough to drop the others, but I am not sure I agree with that. In my view he is the best climber around at the moment and he might well just show it. I was all set to go with Quintana and then I changed my mind to Froome after his Dauphine win, but I am going back to Quintana again as I can see him being able to put the other three in trouble in the mountains. He has a strong team as well to help land the prize. I will also back Nibali e/w as I think as long as he gets round he will be in the first three and given the tough first week it makes sense to have someone else onside. He was superb on the cobbles last year and he could well have an advantage over the others come the mountains which will put them under pressure. I am however going to wait until after Stage 1 to back Quintana as he is the worse time-trialler of the four and unless something surprising happens his price shouldn’t shorten and hopefully might just drift a little. Top 10 finish Obviously quite a few odds on chances in this market, but they won’t all finish in the top 10 and I think there looks a solid bet at odds against. Bauke Mollema was 6^th in 2013 and 10^th last year and the reduction of time-trial miles will be in his favour. He is just the type of rider who will ride fairly anonymously for the three weeks and yet somehow still appear in the top 10. He looks a fair bet at Paddy Power’s 5/4. Green Jersey Peter Sagan has made this jersey his own in recent years, but they have tinkered with the points system again after he won it without winning a stage last year so he won’t find it so easy this time around and although he might well win it again I am going to look for some value. Most bookies are going the first two e/w but I still think it is worth backing Alexander Kristoff e/w. He has had a fantastic season so far and is essentially another Sagan in that he can sprint on the flat and get over the medium sized hills as well. He won 2 stages at last year’s Tour and finished 3^rd in this competition. He is sure to be more focused on trying to win it this year and he looks over priced. Mark Cavendish should win multipule stages with Marcel Kittel missing although he lacks the advantage of winning on the tougher stages and I just wonder if he will even target it this year and instead focus on stage wins. Not surprisingly the price collapsed on Marcel Kittel’s team mate John Degenkolb once it came out Kittel was missing the Tour. Degenkolb has also had a cracking season and is very much in the Sagan/Kristoff mould. He will now be lead sprinter on the team and he is worth backing at double figure odds to small stakes. King Of The Mountains This had become a bit of a lottery, but the change in the way points are given a few years ago means it can go to a GC contender or a pure climber. In 2013 Quintana and Froome finished first and second and last year Nibali was 2^nd to Rafal Majka. On that basis Nairo Quintana looks a very solid e/w bet at 5/1. As I mention above I think he is the best climber in the race and if that proves to be reality then he will be nailed on to be in the first three. Team Classification This competition provided me with my best winner of last year’s race as AG2R landed the spoils. They certainly have a chance again although this looks a more open competion than last year and I think it will be hard to retain their title. The four teams of the four main contenders all feature riders who could be capable of riding in the top 20 or even top 10 themselves and I think it could be down to who does best with their third rider (the top 3 from each stage are used for this competition). At this stage I think it is worth splitting stakes on Astana and Movistar. Valverde should follow Quintana into the top 10 overall and Astana look to have a couple of riders who all being well should hit the top 20. Mark Cavendish There are as always a whole range of bets on the Tour and one of the special bets on Mark Cavendish catches my eye. Bet365 have priced him at 6/5 to win over 2.5 stages which I make an odds on chance. He has looked in great form this year and he will be even more determined than usual to win a few stages after what happened last year. With Kittel out he shouldn’t have that many issues picking up three stages. Stage 1 The only indivdual time-trial of the race and it is a short one as well. Not surprisingly Tony Martin is afavourite and although Tom Dumoulin rates a danger, he disappointed in his National time-trial Championships at the weekend and thus Tony Martin is a pretty confident pick. This will have been his main target all season and given how he has dominated the time-trials in recent years it will be a bit of a surprise if he fails to win. Cancellara used to dominate these until Martin came along, but he has looked on the downgrade for a while now and although he might get 3^rd, I find it hard to see how he can beat Martin. Nairo Quintana 2pts (back after Stage 1) Vincenzo Nibali 0.5pts e/w Bauke Mollema to finish top 10 1pt Alexander Kristoff to win Green Jersey 1.5pts e/w John Degenkolb to win Green Jersey 0.25pts e/w Nairo Quintana to win King Of The Mountains 2pts e/w Astana to win Team Competition 1pt Movistar to win Team Competition 1pt Tony Martin to win Stage 1 2.5pts

[9coconuts]

Ah, I just saw this. I posted on the other Tour thread Addpea. Which one are we using? Can we merge them or something?